Illinois’ US Senate Primary by the Numbers
A record number of Democratic candidates led to a Top 5 party-best competitive primary
Illinois Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton in the race to succeed retiring five-term U.S. Senator Dick Durbin on Tuesday.
Stratton defeated a pair of U.S. Representatives – Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly (plus seven other candidates) – receiving approximately 40 percent of the vote with more than 90 percent counted as of Tuesday morning.
Record Democratic Field
The 10 Democratic candidates on the U.S. Senate ballot set a new party record in Illinois for the office.
The previous record of nine candidates was set nearly a century ago in 1932 when freshman at-large U.S. Representative William Dietrich defeated former State’s Attorney for Mason County (and future congressman) Scott Lucas by a decisive 29.5-point margin.
In only one other cycle have more than five Democrats run for their party’s nomination during the primary era (six candidates in 2004, won by State Senator Barack Obama).
Record Major Party Primary Field
Adding in the six candidates on the Republican side of the ballot (won by former state GOP Chair Don Tracy), a state record 16 major party candidates appeared on the U.S. Senate primary ballot this cycle.
That breaks the record of 14 primary candidates in 2004. Twelve Democrats and Republicans ran in 1932, 11 in 1954 and 10 each in 1930, 1984, 1996, and 2010.
The six-candidate Republican field in 2026 is the fourth largest to seek the office in Illinois party history trailing a field of 10 in 1954 (won by Illinois Federation of Retail Associations president Joseph Meek), eight in 2004 (won by businessman Jack Ryan who later withdrew in scandal), and seven in 2022 (won by attorney Kathy Salvi).
Top 5 Competitive Democratic US Senate Primary
Stratton’s ~7-point victory over Rep. Krishnamoorthi is the fifth most closely decided Illinois U.S. Senate primary in Democratic party history out of the 41 contests held since 1914, trailing only:
- 1920: Boss Manufacturing vice president Peter Waller of Kewanee edged Robert Burke of Chicago by 2.4 points in a head-to-head matchup. [Burke was an anti-establishment candidate who is known for being the only delegate to vote against Woodrow Wilson for president at the Democratic National Convention in 1916].
- 1938: Two-term U.S. Representative Scott Lucas of Havana beat former U.S. Representative and United States attorney for the northern district of Illinois Michael Igoe of Chicago by 4.7 points in a five-candidate field
- 1992: Former State Representative and Cook County Recorder of Deeds Carol Moseley Braun defeated two term U.S. Senator Alan Dixon by 3.7 points in a three-candidate field
- 2010: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias beat Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman by 5.2 points in a five-candidate field
Each of the remaining 36 Democratic primary elections were decided by double digits with nominees running unopposed in 15 of these cycles: Senator Scott Lucas (1944, 1950), former Chicago Alderman Paul Douglas (1948, 1954, 1960, 1966), State Representative Richard Stengel (1956), state Attorney General William Clark (1968), state Treasurer Adlai Stevenson (1970 special), Senator Paul Simon (1990), Senator Carol Moseley Braun (1998), Senator Dick Durbin (2002, 2008, 2014, 2020), and Senator Tammy Duckworth (2022).
Illinois Republicans have not held Durbin’s Class II U.S. Senate seat since incumbent Charles Percy exited the chamber in January 1985 after losing his reelection bid to U.S. Representative Paul Simon.
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Scott Lucas did not stand for re-election in 1948, whether totally unopposed or seriously opposed in the primary election (he was first elected in 1938 and lost in 1950).
Unlike a US vice president, a lieutenant governor (or equivalent) often manages to have a political career in more substantive elective offices. Juliana Stratton apparently will have one in the Senate, and Peggy Flanagan of MN may have a promising career after her stint as lieutenant governor.
Which states have *never* voted an incumbent or former lieutenant governor (or functional equivalent) to a US senate seat since direct elections began, I wonder?
Lucas typo corrected above – thanks for catching.
Regarding lieutenant governors, of course a few go on to another office due to ascension upon governors dying/resigning etc. In Minnesota, LGs who became governor (elected or otherwise) include Republicans Henry Swift, David Clough, Adolph Eberhart, J.A.A. Burnquist, Edward Thye, C. Elmer Anderson, DFLers Karl Rolvaag and Rudy Perpich, and Farmer-Laborite Hjalmar Petersen. Farmer-Laborite Henry Arens later became an at-large U.S. Representative. Republican William Nolan was elected to the Railroad and Warehouse Commission. And Tina Smith, of course, became a U.S. Senator.
Upon a cursory examination only in a relative handful of States have a sitting or former lieutenant governor (or equivalent) been elected to the US Senate: SC, VA, KY, GA, MA, OH, IL, MN, SD, MO, ID, NV, OR, and HI.
To this list, we can add AL (James B. Allen), CO (Edwin C. Johnson and Gordon Allott), IA (Bourke Hickenlooper and Roger Jepsen), MI (Philip A, Hart), MS (Theodore Bilbo), PA (John Fetterman), RI (John O. Pastore), VT (George Aiken), and NH (Charles Tobey, who was an “equivalent” as president of the NH Senate).
I missed Hiram Bingham of CT.
PA (Fetterman) is big miss for me, since it is a very recent instance (all the others occurred so long ago) and among the “list” of states it is the most populous.
“…more than 90% counted as of…” The passage should be completed with *Wednesday* morning (missed it myself the first time).
In 1992 Carol Moseley Braun had not been regarded as a shoo-in for the general election. Given the partisan lean of the state now Juliana Stratton assuredly will become the first XX US senator to hold the Class 2 seat of the state. Indeed, the only uncertainty arguably will be how many and which of the crucial “collar counties” she will carry (for his first Senate election in 1996 Richard Joseph Durbin carried just one of those counties even as he garnered 56% of the vote).