Do Kansas Democrats Smell Blood in the Water?
The party is poised to field a record number of U.S. Senate primary candidates against a well-funded GOP incumbent despite a near century electoral drought
When it comes to U.S. politics over the last century, perhaps nothing has been more certain than Republicans winning U.S. Senate seats in Kansas.
The GOP has reeled in a party-record 33 consecutive victories following Democratic incumbent George McGill’s victory in 1932.
A win this November would land Kansas Republicans the all-time mark of 34 in a row during the direct election era – breaking a tie with Louisiana Democrats from 1914 through 2002.
By all accounts, the Sunflower State should not be on anyone’s radar as Republicans attempt to fend off a Democratic attempt to pry back control of the nation’s upper legislative chamber this November.
Republicans are running U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, who has several million dollars of cash on hand for his reelection bid. Marshall also currently does not face any opposition in the August 4th primary, with a little more than five weeks until the filing deadline closes on June 1st.
Moreover, Kansas GOP nominees have won the last 13 elections since 1990 by an average of 31.4 points – the seventh largest margin in the country during this 18-cycle period. Each victory has been by a double-digit margin.
And yet, Democrats have come out of the woodwork this cycle with 10 candidates announcing their campaigns to challenge Sen. Marshall. The Kansas Democratic Party is not known for having a particularly deep bench and only one of these announced candidates holds political office (first term State Senator Patrick Schmidt of Topeka).
Barring a last-minute (and potentially field-clearing) candidacy by four-term U.S. Representative Sharice Davids, the number of Democrats to appear on the primary ballot for the U.S. Senate this August is poised to set a party record. [Of the 10 announced candidates, four have filed declaration of intention forms with the Kansas Secretary of State and six others (plus one overlapping both) have filed statement of candidacies with the Federal Election Commission].
Across the 42 primaries held for the U.S. Senate in Kansas since 1912, the largest number of Democratic U.S. Senate primary candidates has been seven – in a contest held more than 110 years ago in 1914.
That primary was won by two-term U.S. Representative George Neely of Hutchinson with 29.0 percent of the vote – 3.6 points ahead of attorney Hugh Farrelly of Chanute with 25.4 percent.
Farrelly, a former State Senator and attorney, was also the popular vote winner in the party’s 1912 primary, but nonetheless lost the nomination to 32nd Judicial District Court Judge William Thompson as the contest was determined by legislative units at that point in history.
Also on the seven-candidate Democratic primary ballot in 1914 were Galena attorney William Sapp (receiving 16.7 percent), Topeka Judge Frank Doster (11.1 percent), State House Speaker Willis Brown of Kingston (8.7 percent), former Populist one-term U.S. Representative and sitting Lansing State Penitentiary Warden Jeremiah Botkin of Winfield (6.6 percent), and Kansas City oil company executive William Plumb (2.6 percent).
Democrats have also fielded six U.S. Senate candidates twice: in 1980 (won by former Republican State Senator John Simpson) and 2022 (won by former Kansas City Mayor Mark Holland).
An average of 2.7 candidates have appeared on Democratic primary ballots for U.S. Senator since 1912 with seven nominees running unopposed: former Governor George Hodges in 1920, former Governor Jonathan Davis in 1930, former U.S. Senator George McGill in 1944, former Ellsworth County Attorney Paul Aylward in 1962’s special, Prairie Village anesthesiologist Arch Tetzlaff in 1972, Overland Park Bankers & Investors Co. president James Maher in 1984, and State Treasurer Sally Thompson in 1996.
No Democrats ran for the office of U.S. Senator in one of these 42 primaries – during the 2002 cycle against Senator Pat Roberts.
The most competitive nomination fight took place in 1956 when Wichita furrier George Hart defeated the aforementioned Paul Aylward by 0.4 points in a four-candidate field.
Democrats have been nominated for the U.S. Senate with a plurality of the vote 10 times: in 1912 (William Thompson, 32.3 percent), 1914 (George Neeley, 29.0 percent), 1924 (State Senator James Malone of Topeka, 30.2 percent), 1956 (George Hart, 40.4 percent), 1966 (former three-term U.S. Representative J. Floyd Breeding, 49.9 percent), 1968 (Wichita attorney William Robinson, 40.9 percent), 1980 (John Simpson, 35.8 percent), 1986 (unemployed Wichita political newcomer Guy McDonald, 27.7 percent), 2010 (Baker University Dean Lisa Johnston, 31.3 percent), and 2022 (Mark Holland, 38.1 percent).
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– Would the election have been more competitive or at least noteworthy had outgoing Governor Laura Kelly chosen to make a bid? (She would have been the third consecutive elected governor to have made a move from Topeka for an office in ‘Potomac’ Washington)
– Perhaps Democrats have been encouraged by the leftward – or at least anti-maga/Republican – sentiment, notably in Johnson County and others in the populous northeastern and eastern regions, fueled by tariffs and unnecessary overseas entanglements.
– There also was no Democratic nominee in 2014 – at least by the autumnal equinox of that year (the primary winner withdrew from the election; unlike in the 1990 and 1944 elections there was no replacement candidate for the party, despite the extraordinary legal maneuvers by the dominant Republicans to force it to select another candidate).
Unlike her Democratic colleague in Maine, Gov. Kelly’s approval ratings have been and continue to be very strong in her home state. As to whether she would have been dogged by her age (just two years younger than Janet Mills and more than a decade younger than Sen. Marshall) is hard to say. Perhaps a bigger hurdle, running for federal office, would be that Kelly would be more tied to the national party during such a campaign, which, despite Trump’s own under-water reviews, remain poor.