Colorado’s Gubernatorial Primary by the Numbers
The state’s GOP race is poised to result in the most closely decided primary for the office in state history
With nearly 90 percent of votes counted, the race for Colorado’s Republican gubernatorial nomination is still too close to call in what will go down as the state’s most narrowly decided gubernatorial primary in history.
State Senator Barb Kirkmeyer is clinging to a 0.3-point lead over former Marine and minister Victor Marx with approximately 85 percent of the vote counted. A third candidate, State Representative Scott Bottoms, has been eliminated after receiving 20 percent of the vote.
Kirkmeyer is just the second woman ever to appear on a Republican primary ballot for governor in Colorado. University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl became the first woman to do so during the 2022 cycle when she won the GOP primary en route to a 19-point loss in the general election to Governor Jared Polis.
Kirkmeyer’s narrow lead of less than a half of a percentage point puts the 2026 GOP nomination battle on track to become the most closely decided gubernatorial primary in state history out of more than 80 such major party contests since 1912.
Prior to 2026, only 10 Democratic or Republican primaries for governor had been decided by single digits – including eight on the GOP side.
The closest gubernatorial primary was held in 2010 when businessman Dan Maes edged former six-term U.S. Representative Scott McInnis by just 1.32 points in a head-to-head contest. [Maes famously set a GOP state party low water mark with just 11.1 percent of the vote in the subsequent general election due to former GOP U.S. Representative and Constitution Party nominee Tom Tancredo receiving substantial support from voters of his former party].
The other seven Republican primaries decided by single digits occurred in:
- 1986 (1.35 points): Former Lieutenant Governor Ted Strickland (35.6 percent) defeated Colorado Springs developer Steve Schuck (34.2 percent) with a third candidate, State Representative Bob Kirscht (30.2 percent), close behind
- 2014 (3.5 points): Former two-term U.S. Representative Bob Beauprez (30.2 percent) beat former five-term U.S. Representative Tom Tancredo (26.7 percent) in a four-candidate field
- 1916 (3.8 points): Governor George Carlson (51.9 percent) edged former Leadville Mayor Samuel Nicholson (48.1 percent) in a rematch of the 1914 contest
- 1914 (4.0 points): Former U.S. Senator George Carlson (39.4 percent) defeated Nicholson (35.4 percent) in a three-candidate field
- 1924 (4.4 points): Second Judicial District Court Judge Clarence Morley (48.9 percent) beat Lieutenant Governor Robert Rockwell (44.5 percent) in a three-candidate field
- 1912 (6.2 points): Former Auditor Clifford Parks (53.1 percent) defeated Colorado Springs attorney Philip Stewart (46.9 percent) in a two-candidate race
- 2022 (7.8 points): University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl (53.9 percent) beat former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (46.1 percent) in a head-to-head matchup
The only two Democratic primaries for governor that were decided by single digits took place more than 80 years ago:
- 1942 (6.7 points): Treasurer Homer Bedford (40.2 percent) defeated State Representative Moses Smith of Ault (33.5 percent) in a three-candidate race
- 1934 (9.4 points): Governor Edwin Johnson (54.7 percent) was renominated over Josephine Roche, a mine operator and soon-to-be appointed Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under FDR (45.3 percent)
In yesterday’s Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser upset U.S. Senator and party establishment favorite Michael Bennet by approximately 14.5 points.
Since 1912, more than half of all Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primary winners – 43 of 82 – have won without opposition in Colorado (24 on the Democratic side and 19 Republicans).
Follow Smart Politics on X.
– In the 1958 CA gubernatorial election “Pat” Brown (attorney general) defeated “Bill” Knowland (US senator) by 19.6% (59.8% vs 40.2%). Two years prior, Texas had a gubernatorial election which pitted a former attorney general (Price Daniel, Sr.) against a former US senator (“Pappy” O’Daniel). No other election comes to mind which featured *both* a state AG and a US senator, sitting or former, seeking the office of governor.
– “Barb” Kirkmeyer is the only party aspirant to have petitioned her way onto the primary ballot (as opposed to attaining at least 30% in the state party assembly), ironic given that she seems to be candidate with the most support within the state party establishment. Whoever ultimately becomes the nominee, her or his chances of winning the office of governor seem minimal, given the partisan tilt of the state and the partisan trend of this year (2016 is the most recent year a Republican has won any statewide election).
Josephine Roche wasn’t a former assistant secretary of the Treasury at the time of the 1934 primary, but a future one. The primary was held Sept. 11, 1934; Miss Roche received her recess appointment to the Treasury on Nov. 15, 1934, and was confirmed by the Senate on Jan. 22, 1935.
On the topic of state attorneys general running for governor against U.S. senators, we had that situation in Ohio in 2018, when Mike DeWine (U.S. senator 1995-2007) defeated former AG Rich Cordray (2008-11). This was a rematch, as DeWine had defeated Cordray for AG in 2010. Also, in Virginia’s 1989 GOP primary, J. Marshall Coleman (AG 1978-81) defeated Paul Trible (senator 1983-89). And in 1967 Happy Chandler (senator 1939-45) and J.D. “Jiggs” Buckman (AG 1952-56) were among 10 candidates in Kentucky’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. (Chandler finished second, Buckman fourth.) That’s all I can add to Cecil’s list.
Well done!
It is admittedly difficult to come up with *former* state attorneys general and federal senators competing in the same GUV election, despite the fact that rather few senators have even tried. Among those mentioned, “Plastic Paul” Trible had been in a pickle at the time of his 1989 bid, for had he sought a second Senate term and lost to ex-Lieutenant Governor and ex-Governor “Chuck” Robb his viability as a GUV candidate would likely have been severely damaged. Alas, avoiding that election turned out to be an albatross in its own way indeed.
One recent such match-up that came tantalizingly close to happening was in NY in 2006, with the then-short-serving “Chuck” Schumer seriously mulling that job in Albany. Ultimately, he chose to settle for a seat on the prestigious Finance Committee and forego that office (his days as a Senate Lifer may well be numbered, too, if US Representative “Alexandria” decides to mount her own bid to topple another pillar of the Democratic Gerontacracy).
Good info! I can’t think of any others in recent decades. (And Roche bio tidbit corrected above – much appreciated).
Oh, one more thing: I think that Colorado congressman was Scott McInnis.
– If Marx ends up being the nominee it would mark a fitting bookend to the primary season in the state, which will perhaps be best remembered by the Insurgent Far Left taking down a pillar of the Establishment Left in CD-01. As well, he, not unlike Melat Kiros, the Democratic First District nominee, is a representative of the ‘peripheral’ element/faction of his party, prone to controversial remarks and stances and bent on ripping up the status quo.
– Neither Marx nor Kirkmeyer is given much chance of being elected governor, given the headwinds facing the party, both nationally and within the Centennial State. As for Kiros, she is a shoo-in to become the third consecutive XX barrister who first won this (more or less) urban core constituency in her late 20s or 30s. However, she seems likely to face continuous, some potent some symbolic, primary challenges – or certainly in 2028, when she will have a record to defend, in addition to her remarks and stances on the legitimacy of the state of Israel (distinct from the arguably opporessive policies of the ‘Bibi Regime’) among other issues.