New Hampshire Gubernatorial and US Senate Primaries By the Numbers
Kelly Ayotte makes history once again in the Granite State
On Tuesday, New Hampshire became the 48th state to hold its primary this cycle, and while there were no surprises near the top of the ticket there were a few notable performances.
In the Republican primary for governor, incumbent Kelly Ayotte received 91.7 percent of the vote with just a few thousand votes left to tabulate.
That marks the largest support ever received by a GOP gubernatorial candidate in a contested primary.
Across the 57 primaries for the office conducted since 1914, only four Republicans were nominated without opposition: State Representative John Bartlett in 1918, State Representative Jim Coburn in 2006, State Senator Joseph Kenney in 2008, and Governor Chris Sununu in 2018.
Ayotte – who faced two little-known opponents in her renomination bid this year who had also each won less than a percentage point in the 2024 GOP primary for governor – bested the previous mark of 89.6 percent won by State Senator Lane Dwinell in 1954 as well as the aforementioned Governor Sununu in 2020.
In 2004, Ayotte became the first woman to serve as New Hampshire Attorney General, and is also the only Republican woman to serve New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate, win a gubernatorial nomination, and serve as governor.
Ayotte will face Democratic attorney and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington in November.
Warmington is the sixth woman to win a Democratic nomination for governor in New Hampshire following State Representative Deborah Arnesen (1992), State Senator Jeanne Shaheen (1996, 1998, 2000), former State Senator Maggie Hassan (2012, 2014), former State Senator Molly Kelly (2018), and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (2024).
The Republican race for the U.S. Senate nomination between former U.S. Senators John Sununu and Scott Brown (formerly of Massachusetts) never materialized into a bona fide battle.
Sununu won 68.4 percent of the vote in an eight-candidate field – more than 40 points ahead of Brown.
Only one non-incumbent Republican U.S. Senate nominee has received more support in the state: U.S. Representative Louis Wyman’s 83.0 percent in 1974 in a two-candidate race against political newcomer Leslie Babb.
The only other non-incumbents to eclipse the 60 percent mark were U.S. Representative and former Governor Charles Tobey in 1938 (60.9 percent) and U.S. Representative Bob Smith in 1990 (65.0 percent).
On the Democratic side, although U.S. Representative Chris Pappas ultimately did not face a scare on Election Day from medical scientist and Democratic Socialist Karishma Manzur, his 32.1-point victory was the closest U.S. Senate nomination battle for the party since 1996 when former U.S. Representative Dick Swett eked out a 4.9-point victory against Sunapee businessman John Rauh.
The Sununu vs. Pappas matchup for Shaheen’s open seat is expected to be one of the few pick-up opportunities for the GOP across the nation this cycle.
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Ayotte had been elected attorney general by the “General Court” (as had been its US senators prior to the adoption of the Seventeenth Amendment) as opposed to by direct election. Regardless, she is one of the very few who have won and served in those three crucial, policy-making offices, with “Mike” DeWine of OH (senator-AG-GUV) and “Dick” Bryan of NV (AG-GUV-senator) among them. That select group is poised to add Roy Cooper of NC to its membership after this year’s elections.
Pappas may have been helped in his intraparty battle by the unexpectedly competitive ‘Democratic Party regulars vs Democratic Socialists of America disciples’ contests in New York, Colorado, and elsewhere earlier this year, and the September primary schedule of the state (to be held in June starting 2028, ostensibly to give non-incumbents and non-quasi-incumbents more of a chance).
The Brown vs Sununu tussle is in fact the second occasion in the past 20 years (happy anniversary, Smart Politics, by the way!) that two ex-US senators who had previously won an election and then lost their seats tried to win re-election, the other being the 2014 primary election between former occupants Robert Clinton Smith (who lost the 2002 primary) and Brown, with the former placing *third*, far behind nominee Brown, who went on to narrowly lose to Shaheen.
The national Democrats might take back the Senate with a loss in Michigan, but would seem highly unlikely to do so with a loss in New Hampshire, for if the party is unable to hold on to the latter it would seem unlikely that more Republican-leaning states such as SC or TX would switch.
Another bit of trivia about Brown, documented long ago here on this site, is he was the first major party U.S. Senate nominee to lose to two women.