Upper Midwestern Reapportionment, Part II: A Historical Overview
In a follow-up to yesterday’s discussion of the 2012 projected reapportionment, Smart Politics presents two tables to illustrate the diminishing political influence of Minnesota and the Upper Midwestern battleground states in the U.S. House as a result of population shifts in the United States.
Table 1 demonstrates how the projected reapportionment in 2012 will give Minnesota its fewest number of seats since the 1893-1903 sessions of Congress (7 seats) and how the region collectively will send the fewest number of Representatives to the lower chamber since 1863-1873.
Table 1. Number of Upper Midwestern Battleground State U.S. House Seats By Decade
| Years |
MN Seats
|
WI Seats
|
IA Seats
|
Total Seats
|
| 1849-1853 |
0
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
| 1853-1863 |
2
|
3
|
2
|
7
|
| 1863-1873 |
2
|
6
|
6
|
14
|
| 1873-1883 |
3
|
8
|
9
|
20
|
| 1883-1893 |
5
|
9
|
11
|
25
|
| 1893-1903 |
7
|
10
|
11
|
28
|
| 1903-1913 |
9
|
11
|
11
|
31
|
| 1913-1923 |
10
|
11
|
11
|
32
|
| 1923-1933 |
10
|
11
|
11
|
32
|
| 1933-1943 |
9
|
10
|
9
|
28
|
| 1943-1953 |
9
|
10
|
8
|
27
|
| 1953-1963 |
9
|
10
|
8
|
27
|
| 1963-1973 |
8
|
10
|
7
|
25
|
| 1973-1983 |
8
|
9
|
6
|
23
|
| 1983-1993 |
8
|
9
|
6
|
23
|
| 1993-2003 |
8
|
9
|
5
|
22
|
| 2003-2013 |
8
|
8
|
5
|
21
|
| 2013-2023* |
7
|
8
|
4
|
19
|
* Projected
Table 2 compiles the average number of seats in the U.S. House for each ten-year period, and then calculates the percentage of seats held in the lower chamber by each of the three Upper Midwestern states and the region overall.
This analysis finds Minnesota will tally its lowest percentage of seats in the House after the 2012 reapportionment (at 1.6 percent) since the 1883-1893 sessions, and Iowa (at 0.9 percent) will match its all-time lowest percentage of Representatives sent to D.C. since statehood.
The Upper Midwestern battleground region overall will only account for 4.4 percent of seats in the U.S. House – its lowest mark since the 1853-1863 sessions. This marks a 44.3 percent drop in the region’s share of Representatives since its peak in the 1903-1913 period.
Table 2. Percentage of Upper Midwestern Battleground State U.S. House Seats By Decade
| Years |
US House Seats*
|
% MN
|
% WI
|
% IA
|
% Total Seats
|
| 1849-1853 |
233
|
0.0
|
1.3
|
0.9
|
2.1
|
| 1853-1863 |
225
|
0.9
|
1.3
|
0.9
|
3.1
|
| 1863-1873 |
218
|
0.9
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
6.4
|
| 1873-1883 |
293
|
1.0
|
2.7
|
3.1
|
6.8
|
| 1883-1893 |
328
|
1.5
|
2.7
|
3.4
|
7.6
|
| 1893-1903 |
357
|
2.0
|
2.8
|
3.1
|
7.8
|
| 1903-1913 |
390
|
2.3
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
7.9
|
| 1913-1923 |
435
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
7.4
|
| 1923-1933 |
435
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
7.4
|
| 1933-1943 |
435
|
2.1
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
6.4
|
| 1943-1953 |
435
|
2.1
|
2.3
|
1.8
|
6.2
|
| 1953-1963 |
436
|
2.1
|
2.3
|
1.8
|
6.2
|
| 1963-1973 |
435
|
1.8
|
2.3
|
1.6
|
5.7
|
| 1973-1983 |
435
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
1.4
|
5.3
|
| 1983-1993 |
435
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
1.4
|
5.3
|
| 1993-2003 |
435
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
1.1
|
5.1
|
| 2003-2013 |
435
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.1
|
4.8
|
| 2013-2023** |
435
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
0.9
|
4.4
|
* Denotes average number of Representatives elected to the U.S. House during each 10-year period.
** Projected