Republicans in Competitive Districts Opposed Pogemiller Redistricting Bill; Safe GOPers Supported Reform

When DFL Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller saw his redistricting reform bill (SF 182) pass on a 39-28 roll call vote last Friday, he nearly needed one of the five votes cast by Republicans in favor of the bill.

While a nearly equal amount of DFLers voted against the bill (26 percent, 12 of 46) as GOPers who voted for it (24 percent, 5 of 21), a Smart Politics analysis of the roll call vote finds one big difference between those who splintered from the majority of their respective party’s caucuses.

Republicans who enjoyed the largest margin of victories in 2006 voted for redistricting reform, while those with the smallest margin of victories voted against it. DFLers, however, were split – those voting in favor and against the legislation were equally those coming from safe and competitive districts.

Among the Republicans, the margin of victory for the five Senators voting for redistricting reform averaged 39.3 points – including 5 of the 6 largest margin of victories among the 21 GOPers in the Senate. The margin of victory for the 16 Republican Senators voting against the legislation was just 11.6 points – including all 8 Senators who won election in 2006 by less than 10 points.

Vote for Redistricting Reform for Republican Senators by 2006 Margin of Victory

Pogemiller’s legislation empowers the majority and minority leaders in the Senate and House with each selecting a retired appellate or district court judge to form a redistricting commission, with those four judges selecting a fifth judge. All of the judges must never have previously served in a political party designated or party endorsed position.

What would motivate five members, but only these five members, of the GOP to join forces with the DFL Majority Leader on this redistricting reform bill?

While it is likely these Senators support the legislation on the merits, no doubt the large margin of victory they enjoy in their currently-drawn districts is a welcome safety net. In short, those Republican Senators voting for reform might believe their seats are safe enough that, no matter how their districts would be carved up after the new census, they would still win reelection should they prevail in 2010 and run for reelection in 2012.

Among the DFLers, however, there was no such clear line to distinguish ‘yea’ votes from ‘nay’ votes. The margin of victory among the 12 DFLers who voted against Pogemiller’s bill was 29.8 points; the margin of victory of those 34 DFLers voting for it was 29.9 points. Moreover, of the 12 DFL Senators who won their district by less than 10 points, 8 voted for the bill (Lisa Fobbe, Leo Foley, Terri Bonoff, Mary Olson, Kathy Salzman, Sandy Rummel, Jim Carlson, and Don Betzold) and just 4 voted against it (Rick Olseen, John Doll, Ann Lynch, and Steve Murphy).

Vote for Redistricting Reform for DFL Senators by 2006 Margin of Victory

* Data reflects 2008 special elections.

There was another significant difference among the Republican ‘yea’ and ‘nay’ voters. Those GOPers who voted for redistricting reform have been elected to an average of 5 terms to the Senate, while those voting against the bill have been elected to an average of just 3 terms.

Among DFLers the difference was less stark, although tilted in the same direction: those voting for the bill averaged a greater length of service in the Senate (3.3 terms) than those who voted against it (2.8 terms).

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