Minnesota Leads Midwest in Birth-to-Death Ratio; Will Its 8th U.S. House Seat Be Saved?

With the U.S. Census and reapportionment just around the corner, reports have come out during the past year, including data from Minnesota’s own state demographer, that indicate the Gopher State is in real danger of losing a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012.

While that may still happen, there is some good news for Minnesota residents that its eighth House seat might be saved.

An analysis of recently released data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics finds that Minnesota has the best (largest) birth-to-death ratio among all 12 states in the greater Midwest region.

Data culled by Smart Politics from a new National Vital Statistics Report, reveals that Minnesota led the Midwest with 1.874 live births per death in 2008. Illinois was second in the region at 1.762 with South Dakota third at 1.740.

There were 72,213 live births in Minnesota last year, compared to 38,529 deaths, or 33,684 more births than deaths.

Minnesota’s birth-to-death ratio was also larger than all nine states in the Northeast region of the country and all but two of the 17 Southern states and District of Columbia.

Overall, Minnesota ranked 14th in the country, with 11 of the 13 highest birth-to-death ratios coming from states in the Western region of the U.S., led by Utah (3.950) and Alaska (3.267). The only non-Western states ranked higher than Minnesota were Texas (#3, 2.458) and Georgia (#8, 2.151).

Minnesota needs every live birth it can get these days.

If Minnesota should lose a seat after the next census, they will send the fewest members to the U.S. House since the 1890s, and hold the smallest percentage of U.S. House seats since the 1880s, as reported by Smart Politics last December.

The Gopher State was the last state to receive eight Representatives to the U.S. House after the 2000 Census. Wisconsin, which had more than 440,000 residents, also has eight Representatives, along with Maryland and Missouri. Colorado and Alabama have seven while Indiana and Tennessee have nine.

Minnesota has a higher birth-to-death ratio than Maryland (1.799), Indiana (1.616), Wisconsin (1.548), Tennessee (1.454), Missouri (1.425), and Alabama (1.353).

Colorado, however, has a much higher birth-to-death ratio of 2.238, and the Rocky Mountain State has closed the gap with Minnesota by 340,000 residents since 2000, although the Gopher State still has approximately 280,000 more residents, according to population estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008.

Minnesota has not surpassed any state in population during the past eight years, although Arizona has jumped ahead of the Gopher State (and several others) with its staggering 1.4 million gain in population since 2000.

State population, which determines what states will gain and lose seats under reapportionment, is shaped, of course, by more than the number of live births and deaths. Population also varies with the shifts in how many residents leave a state, as well as how many new residents move in (the latter factor is driving the population boom in Colorado).

Largest Live Birth-to-Death Ratio by State, 2008

Rank	State	Region	Births	Deaths	Ratio
1	Utah	West	55,559	14,064	3.950
2	Alaska	West	11,444	3,503	3.267
3	Texas	South	403,019	163,991	2.458
4	California	West	551,592	232,719	2.370
5	Idaho	West	25,288	11,006	2.298
6	Colorado	West	70,271	31,402	2.238
7	Arizona	West	99,873	45,493	2.195
8	Georgia	South	146,411	68,055	2.151
9	Hawaii	West	19,431	9,270	2.096
10	Nevada	West	39,167	18,942	2.068
11	Wyoming	West	7,976	4,175	1.910
12	New Mexico	West	29,683	15,586	1.904
13	Washington	West	90,721	48,347	1.876
14	Minnesota	Midwest	72,213	38,529	1.874
15	Virginia	South	107,150	59,038	1.815
16	Maryland	South	78,774	43,786	1.799
17	Illinois	Midwest	176,673	100,247	1.762
18	South Dakota	Midwest	12,089	6,946	1.740
19	Nebraska	Midwest	26,914	15,492	1.737
20	New York	Northeast	255,284	149,634	1.706
21	North Carolina	South	131,251	77,392	1.696
22	Kansas	Midwest	41,687	24,643	1.692
23	New Jersey	Northeast	112,658	68,506	1.644
24	South Carolina	South	63,001	38,354	1.643
25	Louisiana	South	64,396	39,634	1.625
26	Indiana	Midwest	88,176	54,612	1.615
27	Mississippi	South	45,411	28,910	1.571
28	Wisconsin	Midwest	72,471	46,813	1.548
29	Oregon	West	48,619	31,767	1.530
30	D.C.	South	7,794	5,115	1.524
31	North Dakota	Midwest	8,973	5,939	1.511
32	Oklahoma	South	54,898	36,945	1.486
33	Tennessee	South	85,319	58,676	1.454
34	Massachusetts	Northeast	76,526	52,892	1.447
35	Kentucky	South	58,402	40,720	1.434
36	Missouri	Midwest	81,099	56,919	1.425
37	Connecticut	Northeast	40,406	28,610	1.412
38	Montana	West	12,561	8,907	1.410
39	Iowa	Midwest	40,156	28,731	1.398
40	Arkansas	South	40,269	29,330	1.373
41	New Hampshire	Northeast	14,066	10,272	1.369
42	Michigan	Midwest	120,997	88,450	1.368
43	Florida	South	231,395	170,535	1.357
44	Ohio	Midwest	148,850	109,831	1.355
45	Alabama	South	64,683	47,821	1.353
46	Rhode Island	Northeast	12,006	9,774	1.228
47	Vermont	Northeast	6,275	5,119	1.226
48	Pennsylvania	Northeast	148,640	125,754	1.182
49	Maine	Northeast	13,672	12,433	1.100
50	Delaware	South	7,794	7,475	1.043
51	West Virginia	South	21,005	21,466	0.979

Note: National Vital Statistics Reports data compiled by Smart Politics.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.