Population Booms and Busts Across Minnesota’s 87 Counties This Decade

Soaring population in central Minnesota and southern metropolitan regions to require eventual carving up of 6th and 2nd Congressional Districts after 2010

Although the Gopher State’s population is continuing to grow, there were concerns as late as last year that Minnesota might lose one of its eight seats in the U.S. House of Representatives when reapportionment takes place after the 2010 Census.

While those fears have largely been allayed based on current state-by-state population projections, the rate of population growth will be smaller this decade in the Gopher State compared to the 1990s.

Minnesota’s statewide population increased 6.1 percent from 2000 to 2008 (with two more years of growth yet to be tabulated), according to population estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, after growing 12.4 percent between 1990 and 2000.

Of course, the distribution of this population change has been quite varied across the Gopher State over the course of the past 8 years, and this will have implications within the state as it begins to consider the process by which new legislative and Congressional district lines are drawn.

It is expected that the 6th and 2nd Congressional Districts in particular will need to be trimmed while the 5th, 4th, and 7th districts will need to grow in order to approximate an equal number of residents in each district.

And precisely where is Minnesota experiencing its population booms and busts?

Smart Politics conducted an analysis of U.S. Census county-wide population data, grouping the Gopher State’s 87 counties into the following 12 regions (region names are culled from Minnesota Regional Development Commission designations where available):

Arrowhead: Aitkin, Carlton, Cook, Itasca, Koochiching, Lake, St. Louis.
Central: Benton, Sherburne, Stearns, Wright.
East Central: Chisago, Isanti, Kanabec, Mille Lacs, Pine.
Headwaters: Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Lake of the Woods, Mahnomen.
Metropolitan: Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, Washington.
Mid-Minnesota: Kandiyohi, McLeod, Meeker, Renville.
North Central: Cass, Crow Wing, Morrison, Todd, Wadena.
Northwest: Kittson, Marshall, Norman, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake, Roseau.
South Central: Blue Earth, Brown, Faribault, Le Sueur, Martin, Nicollet, Sibley, Waseca, Watonwan.
Southeast: Dodge, Fillmore, Freeborn, Goodhue, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Rice, Steele, Wabasha, Winona.
Upper Minnesota Valley: Big Stone, Chippewa, Lac qui Parle, Swift, Yellow Medicine.
West Central: Becker, Clay, Douglas, Grant, Otter Tail, Pope, Stevens, Traverse, Wilkin.

Thirty-nine of the state’s 87 counties have experienced population growth during the past eight years, with the top nine counties with the largest population growth all located in the metropolitan, central, and east central regions of the state.

Scott County, in the southern metropolitan region, has notched the biggest growth rate to date, at 44.1 percent this decade. Home to cities such as Savage, Prior Lake, and Shakopee in the 2nd Congressional District, Scott County has also had the biggest population increase over the past three decades in the state – increasing 194.5 percent since 1980 (from 43,784 to 128,937).

The metropolitan counties of Carver (#4, 28.3 percent growth) in the 2nd CD and Washington (#9, 13.9 percent) in the 6th CD also rank in the Top 10 in the state in terms of population growth rate this decade.

The Central region counties of Sherburne (#2, 36.1 percent growth), Wright (#3, 33.0 percent), and Benton (#8, 16.5 percent) in the 6th CD are also experiencing significant growth in the 2000s.

Overall, the Central region counties of Benton, Sherburne, Stearns, and Wright lead the way with 22.5 percent growth collectively this decade, with the East Central counties of Chisago, Isanti, Kanabec, Mille Lacs, and Pine not far behind at 17.5 percent.

The metropolitan region counties of Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington, which experienced growth north of 15 percent in the 1980s and 1990s, will not reach 10 percent growth this decade – growing at just 6.4 percent from 2000 through 2008.

All of the metro counties have experienced population growth, save one: Ramsey County. Ramsey’s population has dropped 1.9 percent, from 511,035 in 2000 to 501,428 in 2008. Ramsey had experienced growth of over 5 percent in both the 1980s and 1990s.

Four regions of the state are in the midst of declining populations – the Upper Minnesota valley region (-8.1 percent), the Southwest (-4.8 percent), the Northwest (-4.0 percent), and the Arrowhead region (-0.5 percent).

Change in Minnesota Population By Region, 2000-2008

Region	2000	2008	2000-2008
Central	321,795	394,315	22.5
East Central	136,244	160,127	17.5
Metropolitan	2,642,056	2,810,424	6.4
North Central	152,100	161,025	5.9
Southeast	460,102	486,517	5.7
Headwaters	76,161	80,007	5.0
West central	210,059	217,453	3.5
South Central	222,790	226,648	1.7
Mid-Minnesota	115,899	116,848	0.8
Arrowhead	322,073	320,342	-0.5
Northwest	88,472	84,944	-4.0
Southwest	121,717	115,816	-4.8
Upper MN Valley	50,011	45,937	-8.1
Minnesota	4,919,479	5,220,393	6.1

Table compiled by Smart Politics from U.S. Census Bureau data.

The metropolitan region continues to comprise more than half of the state’s population, as it has since the late 1980s. However, at 53.8 percent, the metropolitan counties’ share of the state population is basically flat since 2000 (53.7 percent).

The Arrowhead / Iron Range region – which is currently shedding population – has seen its share of the Gopher State population decline each of the last few decades: from 8.4 percent in 1980, to 7.1 percent in 1990, to 6.5 percent in 2000, to 6.1 percent in 2008.

The other regions which are comprising a smaller and smaller percentage of the state’s population each decade are in the South Central, West Central, Mid-Minnesota, Southwest, Northwest, and Upper Minnesota Valley regions of the state.

Proportion of Minnesota State Population by Region, 1980-2008

Region	1980	1990	2000	2008
Metropolitan	48.7	52.3	53.7	53.8
Southeast	9.9	9.6	9.4	9.3
Central	5.4	5.9	6.5	7.6
Arrowhead	8.4	7.1	6.5	6.1
South Central	5.4	4.9	4.5	4.3
West central	5.0	4.5	4.3	4.2
North Central	3.2	3.0	3.1	3.1
East Central	2.4	2.5	2.8	3.1
Mid-Minnesota	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.2
Southwest	3.4	2.8	2.5	2.2
Northwest	2.4	2.1	1.8	1.6
Headwaters	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5
Upper MN Valley	1.5	1.2	1.0	0.9

Table compiled by Smart Politics from U.S. Census Bureau data.

Seven of the 48 counties that are enduring a population decline this decade, are doing so at a double-digit rate.

Kittson County (#87), in the Northwest region of the state, has shed population at the highest rate. Kittson has lost 15.6 percent of its population since 2000, and 33.1 percent of its population since 1980 – second only to Traverse County (34.0 percent) over the past three decades.

The other counties ranking at the bottom in population growth since 2000 are Wilkin (#85, -11.9 percent), Lake of the Woods (#85, -11.9 percent), Traverse (#84, -11.5 percent), Norman (#82, -11.2 percent), Lac qui Parle (#82, -11.2 percent), and Yellow Medicine (#81, -10.1 percent).

Overall, of the 17 counties that have experienced double-digit growth so far this decade, only two are in any of the northern regions of the state: Crow Wing in the North Central region (#11, 12.8 percent growth) and Beltrami in the Headwaters region (#13, 10.6 percent).

And the Gopher State’s least populated counties are generally getting less and less populated.

Of the 12 counties with a population of less than 10,000 individuals in 1980, only one has enjoyed an increase in population this decade (Cook County, 5.2 percent), and only two have had a net increase over the past three decades (Cook, at 32.9 percent, and Lake of the Woods at 5.9 percent).

Rate of Population Growth in Minnesota by County, 2000-2008

Rank	County	Region	2000	2008	’00-’08
1	Scott	Metropolitan	89,498	128,937	44.1
2	Sherburne	Central	64,417	87,660	36.1
3	Wright	Central	89,986	119,701	33.0
4	Carver	Metropolitan	70,205	90,043	28.3
5	Isanti	East central	31,287	39,105	25.0
6	Chisago	East central	41,101	50,257	22.3
7	Mille Lacs	East central	22,330	26,377	18.1
8	Benton	Central	34,226	39,878	16.5
9	Washington	Metropolitan	201,130	229,173	13.9
10	Olmsted	Southeast	124,277	141,360	13.7
11	Crow Wing	North Central	55,099	62,172	12.8
12	Dodge	Southeast	17,731	19,751	11.4
13	Beltrami	Headwaters	39,650	43,835	10.6
14	Douglas	West central	32,821	36,258	10.5
15	Stearns	Central	133,166	147,076	10.4
15	Dakota	Metropolitan	355,904	392,755	10.4
17	Le Sueur	South Central	25,426	28,042	10.3
18	Rice	Southeast	56,665	62,390	10.1
19	Anoka	Metropolitan	298,084	327,090	9.7
20	Clay	West central	51,229	55,767	8.9
21	Steele	Southeast	33,680	36,546	8.5
22	Blue Earth	South Central	55,941	60,401	8.0
23	Nicollet	South Central	29,771	32,027	7.6
24	Kanabec	East central	14,996	16,091	7.3
25	Carlton	Arrowhead	31,671	33,933	7.1
26	Becker	West central	30,000	32,000	6.7
26	Pine	East central	26,530	28,297	6.7
28	McLeod	Mid-Minnesota	34,898	37,165	6.5
29	Cass	North Central	27,150	28,732	5.8
30	Cook	Arrowhead	5,168	5,437	5.2
31	Goodhue	Southeast	44,127	45,897	4.0
32	Morrison	North Central	31,712	32,893	3.7
33	Aitkin	Arrowhead	15,301	15,736	2.8
34	Hubbard	Headwaters	18,376	18,810	2.4
35	Hennepin	Metropolitan	1,116,200	1,140,998	2.2
35	Meeker	Mid-Minnesota	22,644	23,143	2.2
37	Pennington	Northwest	13,584	13,747	1.2
37	Itasca	Arrowhead	43,992	44,512	1.2
39	Wabasha	Southeast	21,610	21,813	0.9
40	Winona	Southeast	49,985	49,879	-0.2
41	Waseca	South Central	19,526	19,443	-0.4
42	Otter Tail	West central	57,159	56,786	-0.7
43	Mahnomen	Headwaters	5,190	5,128	-1.2
44	Kandiyohi	Mid-Minnesota	41,203	40,679	-1.3
44	Fillmore	Southeast	21,122	20,850	-1.3
46	St. Louis	Arrowhead	200,528	196,864	-1.8
46	Pope	West central	11,236	11,030	-1.8
48	Ramsey	Metropolitan	511,035	501,428	-1.9
48	Mower	Southeast	38,603	37,859	-1.9
50	Clearwater	Headwaters	8,423	8,249	-2.1
50	Todd	North Central	24,426	23,917	-2.1
52	Polk	Northwest	31,369	30,694	-2.2
52	Nobles	Southwest	20,832	20,365	-2.2
54	Lyon	Southwest	25,425	24,844	-2.3
55	Houston	Southeast	19,718	19,245	-2.4
56	Rock	Southwest	9,721	9,476	-2.5
57	Sibley	South Central	15,356	14,954	-2.6
58	Roseau	Northwest	16,338	15,865	-2.9
58	Wadena	North Central	13,713	13,311	-2.9
60	Brown	South Central	26,911	25,862	-3.9
60	Stevens	West central	10,053	9,661	-3.9
62	Lake	Arrowhead	11,058	10,609	-4.1
63	Grant	West central	6,289	6,005	-4.5
64	Jackson	Southwest	11,268	10,734	-4.7
65	Pipestone	Southwest	9,895	9,395	-5.1
65	Freeborn	Southeast	32,584	30,927	-5.1
65	Chippewa	Upper MN Valley	13,088	12,414	-5.1
68	Red Lake	Northwest	4,299	4,069	-5.4
69	Martin	South Central	21,802	20,435	-6.3
70	Marshall	Northwest	10,155	9,502	-6.4
71	Cottonwood	Southwest	12,167	11,283	-7.3
72	Renville	Mid-Minnesota	17,154	15,861	-7.5
73	Koochiching	Arrowhead	14,355	13,251	-7.7
73	Swift	Upper MN Valley	11,956	11,035	-7.7
75	Big Stone	Upper MN Valley	5,820	5,365	-7.8
76	Redwood	Southwest	16,815	15,493	-7.9
77	Murray	Southwest	9,165	8,389	-8.5
78	Watonwan	South Central	11,876	10,860	-8.6
79	Lincoln	Southwest	6,429	5,837	-9.2
80	Faribault	South Central	16,181	14,624	-9.6
81	Yellow Medicine	Upper MN Valley	11,080	9,958	-10.1
82	Lac qui Parle	Upper MN Valley	8,067	7,165	-11.2
82	Norman	Northwest	7,442	6,605	-11.2
84	Traverse	West central	4,134	3,660	-11.5
85	Lake of the Woods	Headwaters	4,522	3,985	-11.9
85	Wilkin	West central	7,138	6,286	-11.9
87	Kittson	Northwest	5,285	4,462	-15.6
	Minnesota		4,919,479	5,220,393	6.1

Table compiled by Smart Politics from U.S. Census Bureau data.

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