Is Barack Obama Ignoring Red State Americans?

President has delivered 8 times the number of remarks outside Washington, D.C. in states he carried in 2008 than states won by John McCain

This report is the second in a series on a study of the 600+ verbal statements Barack Obama has delivered since Inauguration Day. The first installment focused on the sharp decline in statements delivered by the President in 2010.

While many Americans believe that their voice was not heard in Washington D.C. during the recent passage by the Democrats of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Tea Party adherents the most vocal among them), there are indeed Americans who can point to having received less of the President’s attention than their neighbors, at least through his first 14+ months in office: red state Americans.

A Smart Politics analysis of more than 500 addresses, speeches, and remarks by President Barack Obama finds that he has delivered 8 times the number of verbal statements made outside of Washington D.C. in states he carried in 2008, compared to those won by John McCain.

Excluding formal media appearances (news conferences and interviews), the President delivered 531 verbal statements in formal addresses, speeches, and brief remarks from Inauguration Day through March 21, 2010:

· The majority of these statements, 63.5 percent (337) were delivered within the District of Columbia.
· Another 116 statements were delivered in states Obama carried on Election Day (21.8 percent)
· Only 15 such statements were delivered in states won by John McCain (2.8 percent), or 8 times fewer statements than in ‘Obama states.’
· An additional 63 verbal statements (11.9 percent) were delivered outside of the United States (excluding media events).

This means the President has delivered more than four times as many statements in foreign countries (63) than he has in the 22 states won by McCain (15).

President Obama’s Verbal Statements by Audience Location, January 20, 2009-March 21, 2010

Location	#	Percent
Washington, D.C.	337	63.5
Obama states	116	21.8
Foreign countries	63	11.9
McCain states	15	2.8
Total	531	100.0

Data excludes formal media appearances (press conferences and interviews). Presidential statement data was culled from the Public Papers of the Presidents at The American Presidency Project. Compiled by Smart Politics.

This data certainly suggests Obama is remembering quite well which states got him elected in 2008, and which states inordinately harbor his political opponents – he is traveling to and engaging with the former and almost completely ignoring the latter.

But how might these imbalances be explained by the Obama administration?

First, due to the fact that some key federal government buildings located outside of D.C. are housed on the East Coast (e.g. at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland; the Central Intelligence Agency in Langley, Virginia; Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia), a handful of verbal statements would have been delivered by any president at these locations throughout his administration.

However, even after excluding such remarks from analysis (as well as those made to the United Nations in New York), the President has still delivered 8.5 times as many remarks to audiences in Obama states as those in McCain states.

A second explanation the White House might use for this large imbalance as to which Americans receive Obama’s attention when he makes appearances on the road is the proximity of Obama states to the White House as compared to McCain states.

In the 2008 election, Obama swept through the 14 states in the mid-Atlantic, New England, and East North Central divisions of the United States, with the majority of the 22 states he lost coming from the West South Central, Mountain, and East South Central divisions.

For example, if the President wants to get out of Washington to deliver remarks on education policy, he might be more apt to choose a school closer to D.C. (e.g. at Viers Mill Elementary School in Silver Spring, Maryland on October 19, 2009) than, say, in Lawrence, Kansas.

Or if the President wanted to speak about military issues at a Naval Air Station, it would be a little quicker for him to reach the Naval Air Station in Jacksonville, Florida (as he did on October 26, 2009) than to fly to, say, Kingsville, Texas.

A third explanation could simply be population-based, as Obama carried the lion’s share of the most populous states in the country. However, the population of the 28 states carried by Obama in 2008 (209,278,040) is only 2.2 times that of the population of the 22 states won by McCain (94,189,851) – a far cry from the eight-fold differential in public appearances.

As such, these qualifiers can only explain away part of the Obama public strategy to so inordinately focus his public speaking appearances on audiences in those states that got him elected, and largely ignore those in states that voted against him.

In total, Obama has spoken to nearly 80 percent of 28 ‘Obama states’ since Inauguration Day (22), while only addressing less than one-third of the 22 ‘McCain states’ (7).

Obama has delivered 116 statements in 22 of the 28 states he carried in November 2008 (79 percent of such states). The only states he has missed to date: Delaware, Maine, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

By contrast, Obama has delivered only 15 statements across just 7 of the 22 states won by John McCain (32 percent of such states).

While Obama has spoken to audiences in the McCain states of Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, and Texas, he has yet to speak as President in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Looking at the partisan tilt of those states in which Obama is focusing his attention when he hits the road is equally revealing: purple states are not to be missed while red states usually do not make the cut.

· The President has delivered 65 of his 131 domestic remarks to audiences across the nation’s ‘blue states’ (49.6 percent). Obama has spoken in 14 of 20 blue states to date, only missing the six ‘Obama states’ listed above.
· The President delivered an additional 53 statements statements in ‘purple states’ (40.5 percent), hitting 9 of 11 states along the way, missing only Arkansas and West Virginia (two purple states quickly turning red).
· Only 13 of the President’s domestic remarks were delivered in classic ‘red states’ (9.9 percent).

And while the President has addressed audiences in 6 of the 19 red states, more than half of these 13 statements were delivered to audiences in the two red states he carried last November: Indiana (5) and North Carolina (2).

Overall, an average of 4.82 verbal remarks have been delivered per purple state, 3.25 per blue state, and just 0.68 per red state.

President Obama’s Verbal Statements by State’s Partisan Leanings, January 20, 2009-March 21, 2010

Type	#	Percent	States	Ratio
Blue	65	49.6	20	3.25
Purple	53	40.5	11	4.82
Red	13	9.9	19	0.68

This table reflects the definition of a red state as having an average margin of victory over the past five presidential election cycles of more than five points for the Republicans, a blue state of more than five points for the Democrats, and a purple state as having less than a five point tilt in either direction. Data excludes statements made in the District of Columbia or in foreign countries. Data excludes formal media appearances (press conferences and interviews). Presidential statement data was culled from the Public Papers of the Presidents at The American Presidency Project. Compiled by Smart Politics.

Overall, Obama carried each of the 10 states which top the list of those he has addressed the most frequently since Inauguration Day: Virginia (21 times), New York (17), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (7), Ohio (7), California (6), Pennsylvania (6), Florida (6), New Jersey (5), and Indiana (5).

President Obama’s Verbal Statements by State, January 20, 2009-March 21, 2010

Rank	State	2008	Tilt	#	%
1	Virginia	Obama	Purple	21	16.0
2	New York	Obama	Blue	17	13.0
3	Maryland	Obama	Blue	10	7.6
4	Massachusetts	Obama	Blue	7	5.3
4	Ohio	Obama	Purple	7	5.3
6	California	Obama	Blue	6	4.6
6	Pennsylvania	Obama	Blue	6	4.6
6	Florida	Obama	Purple	6	4.6
9	New Jersey	Obama	Blue	5	3.8
9	Indiana	Obama	Red	5	3.8
11	Illinois	Obama	Blue	4	3.1
11	Colorado	Obama	Purple	4	3.1
11	Nevada	Obama	Purple	4	3.1
11	Missouri	McCain	Purple	4	3.1
15	Wisconsin	Obama	Blue	3	2.3
15	Arizona	McCain	Purple	3	2.3
17	Hawaii	Obama	Blue	2	1.5
17	Louisiana	McCain	Purple	2	1.5
17	New Hampshire	Obama	Purple	2	1.5
17	North Carolina	Obama	Red	2	1.5
17	Georgia	McCain	Red	2	1.5
17	Texas	McCain	Red	2	1.5
23	Connecticut	Obama	Blue	1	0.8
23	Iowa	Obama	Blue	1	0.8
23	Michigan	Obama	Blue	1	0.8
23	Minnesota	Obama	Blue	1	0.8
23	New Mexico	Obama	Blue	1	0.8
23	Alaska	McCain	Red	1	0.8
23	Montana	McCain	Red	1	0.8
	Total			131	100.0

Data excludes statements made in the District of Columbia or in foreign countries. Data excludes formal media appearances (press conferences and interviews). Presidential statement data was culled from the Public Papers of the Presidents at The American Presidency Project. Compiled by Smart Politics.

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