Still thinking about running for the U.S. Senate? You’re Too Late

No non-incumbent has won a U.S. Senate seat by announcing their candidacy this late in the election cycle; the average length of successful U.S. Senate campaigns since 2000 has been 447 days

Many Wisconsin Republicans were disappointed last week when former four-term Governor Tommy Thompson announced he would not challenge Democrat Russ Feingold for his U.S. Senate seat this November.

Republicans were particularly disappointed, considering Thompson had led Feingold in several polls conducted early this year in hypothetical matchups between two of the Badger State’s most well known political figures.

However, had Thompson run he would have attempted to do what no other non-incumbent has succeeded in doing this century: win a Senate seat after waiting until mid-April of the election year to launch a campaign.

A Smart Politics analysis of 166 general election contests conducted since 2000 finds that – with one unique exception – the latest a non-incumbent has announced their candidacy and gone on to win a U.S. Senate seat is April 3rd of the election year.

That distinction goes to Mark Dayton, former DFL Senator from Minnesota, who announced his candidacy on April 3, 2000, and holds the record over the past decade for the shortest period between such an announcement and Election Day – at 218 days.

The average length of a U.S. Senate campaign this decade for those who have successfully knocked off incumbents or won open seats has been 448 days (which would be August 11, 2009 in the current election cycle).

For open seat races, the average length of a successful campaign was 442 days while the average length of successful campaigns against incumbents was about two weeks longer at 454 days.

(Note: the ‘unique exception’ mentioned above deals with the 2002 New Jersey U.S. Senate race in which Democratic incumbent Robert Torricelli withdrew from the contest on September 30th after the disclosure of illegal contributions to his campaign. New Jersey Democrats then quickly picked former Senator Frank Lautenberg (who retired less than two years prior) to appear on the ballot in place of Torricelli – some 34 days before the election).

Mark Dayton is not the only candidate who announced and won a Senate seat in the year of the election.

After Dayton, other candidates who successfully flirted with the calendar are Democrat Ken Salazar of Colorado, who did not announce his candidacy until March 10th of 2004 (238 days out), Republican Lamar Alexander of Tennessee who waited until March 11th of 2002 (239 days out), and Republican Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma who announced on March 1st of 2004 (247 days out).

In the 2008 election cycle, all of the 10 general election non-incumbent winners announced their candidacies in 2007 with the exception of Alaska Democrat Mark Begich, who waited until February 27th of 2008 (251 days out).

The reasons why successful campaigns need more than 200 days to gestate are obvious – it takes time to raise the millions of dollars needed to win a U.S. Senate race, to build a statewide network of supporters, campaign volunteers, and endorsements, and to build name recognition, especially when running against incumbents.

But, despite the calendar nearly turning over to May, there are still names being floated about as potential U.S. Senate challengers in 2010.

One high profile “non-candidate” still on the fence is former two-time GOP gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi in the State of Washington.

Rossi’s entry in the race against three-term Democratic incumbent Patty Murray would likely squeeze out many of the nearly dozen announced Republican hopefuls vying to win their party’s primary this August.

However, with just 194 days to go before the general election, history would suggest Rossi has missed his opportunity to run and win.

Overall, of the 49 successful non-incumbents to win general election U.S. Senate seats since 2000, 13 launched their candidacies in the year of the election, 32 launched their candidacies in the year prior to the election, and four announced their candidacies two years prior to the election.

Republican Bob Corker of Tennessee is the ‘early bird’ winner – filing his paperwork in his bid to win outgoing Senator Bill Frist’s seat some 755 days before the 2006 election, on October 13, 2004.

Missouri Democrat Mel Carnahan was next by announcing his candidacy 734 days out from the 2000 Election, on November 4, 1998 (in a contest he won after dying in a plane crash three weeks before Election Day).

Republican George Allen of Virginia had the third longest campaign at 703 days – announcing his 2000 U.S. Senate bid on December 5, 1998.

Of course, some politicians play it ‘loose’ as to whether they are actually a true candidate for office, or just ‘exploring the possibility.’

For example, Democrat Hillary Clinton first filed papers with the FEC on July 7, 1999 prior to her ‘listening tour,’ but did not formally announce her bid for Senator from New York until February 6, 2000.

Similarly, Republican Norm Coleman of Minnesota formed a campaign committee on June 14, 2001, but did not announce his candidacy until February 11, 2002.

But whether or not a formal announcement accompanies the filing of paperwork, the lesson for those candidates still considering runs yet in 2010 is that if neither have been completed at this stage in the game, the game is likely over.

Length of Campaigns for Successful Non-Incumbent General Election U.S. Senate Candidates, 2000-2008

Senator	State	Party	Announced	Days
Frank Lautenberg*	NJ	Democrat	Oct. 2, 2002	34
Mark Dayton	MN	Democrat	Apr. 3, 2000	218
Ken Salazar	CO	Democrat	Mar. 10, 2004	238
Lamar Alexander	TN	Republican	Mar. 11, 2002	239
Tom Coburn	OK	Republican	Mar. 1, 2004	247
Mark Begich	AK	Democrat	Feb. 27, 2008	251
Ben Nelson	NE	Democrat	Feb. 24, 2000	257
Norm Coleman	MN	Republican	Feb. 11, 2002	267
Jim Webb	VA	Democrat	Feb. 7, 2006	273
Hillary Clinton	NY	Democrat	Feb. 6, 2000	275
Maria Cantwell	WA	Democrat	Jan. 19, 2000	293
Mel Martinez	FL	Republican	Jan. 5, 2004	302
John Thune	SD	Republican	Jan. 5, 2004	302
David Vitter	LA	Republican	Dec. 17, 2003	321
Tom Udall	NM	Democrat	Nov. 10, 2007	360
Kay Hagan	NC	Democrat	Oct. 30, 2007	371
Saxby Chambliss	GA	Republican	Oct. 16, 2001	385
John Sununu	NH	Republican	Oct. 15, 2001	386
Mike Johanns	NE	Republican	Oct. 10, 2007	391
Jim Risch	ID	Republican	Oct. 9, 2007	392
Sherrod Brown	OH	Democrat	Oct. 6, 2005	397
Elizabeth Dole	NC	Republican	Sep. 22, 2001	409
John Cornyn	TX	Republican	Sep. 21, 2001	410
John Corzine	NJ	Democrat	Sep. 23, 1999	411
Tom Carper	DE	Democrat	Sep. 21, 1999	413
Jeanne Shaheen	NH	Democrat	Sep. 14, 2007	417
Mark Warner	VA	Democrat	Sep. 13, 2007	418
Claire McCaskill	MO	Democrat	Aug. 30, 2005	434
Jeff Merkley	OR	Democrat	Aug. 1, 2007	461
Bernie Sanders	VT	Independent	Jul. 5, 2005	490
Jon Tester	MT	Democrat	May 24, 2005	532
Ben Cardin	MD	Democrat	Apr. 26, 2005	560
Mark Pryor	AR	Democrat	Apr. 23, 2001	561
Amy Klobuchar	MN	Democrat	Apr. 18, 2005	568
Mark Udall	CO	Democrat	Apr. 15, 2007	569
Sheldon Whitehouse	RI	Democrat	Apr. 4, 2005	582
Debbie Stabenow	MI	Democrat	Mar. 29, 1999	589
Bill Nelson	FL	Democrat	Mar. 18, 1999	600
Bob Casey	PA	Democrat	Mar. 4, 2005	613
Lindsey Graham	SC	Republican	Feb. 21, 2001	622
John Ensign	NV	Republican	Feb. 19, 1999	627
Al Franken	MN	Democrat	Feb. 14, 2007	629
Richard Burr	NC	Republican	Feb. 10, 2003	631
Barack Obama	IL	Democrat	Jan. 21, 2003	651
Johnny Isakson	GA	Republican	Jan. 15, 2003	657
Jim DeMint	SC	Republican	Dec. 16, 2002	687
George Allen	VA	Republican	Dec. 5, 1998	703
Mel Carnahan**	MO	Democrat	Nov. 4, 1998	734
Bob Corker	TN	Republican	Oct. 13, 2004	755
Average				448

* Frank Lautenberg was added at the 11th hour to the New Jersey ballot when the Democratic Party had to fill the slot after incumbent Robert Torricelli withdrew from the race. ** Mel Carnahan received the most votes on Election Day after dying on October 17, 2000 in a plane crash. His wife Jeanne was appointed to the seat. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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