The $32 Million Victory: Wins Not Coming Any Easier for High Payroll Minnesota Twins

Twins payroll increased 49 percent from $65 million in 2009 to $97 million in 2010 but team is on pace for just one more victory

Although a 10-4 victory and series win against the hapless Baltimore Orioles on Sunday – and continued hold onto second place in the American League Central Division – has quieted some of the harsh criticism the Minnesota Twins faced heading into the All-Star break, the team has still fallen markedly vis-à-vis their 29 rival clubs in one statistic this year.

The opening of (partially) taxpayer-funded Target Field in 2010 brought with it expectations that the team payroll would also increase from 2009, when the Twins had just the 24th highest payroll in baseball.

It did.

But while the increase in team salary for Minnesota’s opening day roster from 2009 to 2010 was the second largest in baseball, the Twins have struggled to find an easier path to winning ball games.

A Smart Politics analysis of team payroll and records through Sunday afternoon’s MLB games finds that the Minnesota Twins have dropped sixteen slots from the third most ‘efficient’ club in baseball to #19 – the biggest such slide in the league.

To the Twins’ credit, they increased their roster payroll 49.2 percent from $65.3 million in 2009 to $97.6 million in 2010, second only to the Florida Marlins in percentage terms (+51.1 percent) and second only to the Boston Red Sox in absolute terms ($41 million).

The problem, however, is that the team is currently on pace to win only one more game in 2010 (88) than in 2009 (87).

Although if the Twins are questioning some of their off-season player personnel decisions, they are not alone – as all the other teams who topped the league in salary increases in 2010 are faring even worse:

· The Florida Marlins (51.1 percent payroll increase) are projected to win five fewer games in 2010 (82) than in 2009 (87).
· The Boston Red Sox (33.7 percent increase) are on pace to win three fewer games (from 95 to 92).
· The Philadelphia Phillies (25.6 percent increase) are on pace to win six fewer games (from 93 to 87).
· The Baltimore Orioles (21.6 percent increase) are on pace to win 12 fewer games (from 64 to 52).
· The St. Louis Cardinals (20.5 percent increase) are on pace to win one fewer game (from 91 to 90).

Overall, the Twins’ payroll jumped from the 24th highest in baseball last year to #11 in 2010 – just ahead of two of the most storied franchises in the league with the Los Angeles Dodgers at #12 and St. Louis Cardinals at #13.

Still, many analysts would say the Twins’ $32 million increase in team salary, while not paying big dividends thus far in 2010 with just one more projected victory, was nonetheless an important first step for the ball club to shed its ‘little engine that couldn’t’ tagline that has stuck in recent years in light of its early playoff exits.

First, the Twins (temporarily) satisfied the public call for the franchise to invest more money in the team and increase its player payroll after taxpayers spent hundreds of millions of dollars to help build the team’s beautiful new ballpark.

To have done otherwise, and to have continued to fail to win playoff series, would have engendered ill will from fans in the Gopher State.

Secondly, it is also generally true that while spending the most money in baseball does not ensure a successful season, there is a correlation between big team payrolls and winning ball clubs.

For example, in 2009, nine of the Top 11 team salaries in baseball were franchises that notched winning records by season’s end.

By contrast, just four of the Bottom 12 team salaries in baseball were ball clubs that had winning records (though one of which was the Twins).

Thus far in 2010, the Top 13 team salaries are franchises on pace to win an average of 89 victories, with an average salary of $123.8 million.

Meanwhile, the Bottom 13 teams in the league in player salaries are ball clubs on pace to win 14 fewer games at just 74 victories, with an average salary of only $59.9 million.

However, the problem with this formula for success, as the Twins and Florida Marlins proved for years, is that there are exceptions to the rule.

The San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers currently lead the NL West and AL West divisions, with the 2nd ($37.8 million) and 4th ($55.3 million) lowest payrolls in baseball this year.

The Oakland A’s ($51.7 million) and Florida Marlins ($55.6 million) are also on pace for winning seasons this year despite having the third and fifth lowest payrolls in the league respectively.

But for the Twins, the money is already spent with a payroll flirting with $100 million, and what it translates into is this: winning just got a lot more expensive in Minneapolis.

In 2009, the Twins spent just $750,566 per victory on team salary. In 2010, the Twins are on pace to spend $1.1 million per victory.

In other words, the Twins are on pace to spend $353,877 more per victory this year than 2009 – which is the fourth largest increase in baseball behind Baltimore ($524,712), Boston ($493,889), and Philadelphia ($415,869).

On the other side of the spectrum is the New York Mets, a team that slashed its bloated payroll by almost $17 million in 2010 and is on pace for 13 more victories – and spending $541,497 less per win.

So what is the lesson learned so far as the Twins play their 100th game of the season Monday evening?

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has hinted about a lack of effort in 2010, but the stats tell a different tale.

It’s not defense – the team has the fewest errors (34) of all 30 clubs in the league.

It’s also not the offense. Despite hitting into a league-leading 109 double plays, the Twins have still managed to score more runs than 23 other teams in baseball, ranked #7.

That leaves pitching, which has been fairly average: the team’s ERA is 16th in the league, although, thanks to the stellar defense, the Twins have given up the 11th fewest runs.

And for every player that is viewed to be having a down year (Nick Blackburn, Denard Span), there are others who have risen above expectations (e.g. Carl Pavano, Delmon Young).

Of course, the team can point to key injuries such as losing closer Joe Nathan for the year, MVP candidate first-baseman Justin Morneau missing 18 games this year and counting, and off-season acquisition J.J. Hardy missing more than 40 games at shortstop in May and June.

But perhaps it is something else. Something less definable.

Now that the Twins are spending money like one of the big boys, perhaps Lady Luck has decided to take up residence elsewhere – deciding to move from Minneapolis to a southern climate to find a new underdog.

Odds are you’ll find her in San Diego or Texas.

Dollars Spent on Players’ Salary Per Victory Among Major League Baseball Franchises, 2010

Rank	Team	Wins*	2010 Payroll	Per Win
1	San Diego Padres	97	$37,799,300	$387,829
2	Texas Rangers	95	$55,250,545	$579,221
3	Pittsburgh Pirates	57	$34,943,000	$614,135
4	Oakland Athletics	84	$51,654,900	$617,339
5	Florida Marlins	82	$55,641,500	$678,555
6	Tampa Bay Rays	99	$71,923,471	$725,442
7	Toronto Blue Jays	84	$62,689,357	$749,214
8	Cincinnati Reds	91	$72,386,544	$792,843
9	Washington Nationals	70	$61,425,000	$877,500
10	Atlanta Braves	95	$84,423,667	$885,058
11	Cleveland Indians	69	$61,203,967	$892,027
12	Arizona Diamondbacks	62	$60,718,167	$984,619
13	Colorado Rockies	85	$84,227,000	$986,878
14	Kansas City Royals	70	$72,267,710	$1,028,199
15	St. Louis Cardinals	90	$93,540,753	$1,035,117
16	Milwaukee Brewers	78	$81,108,279	$1,039,583
17	San Francisco Giants	93	$97,828,833	$1,048,166
18	Los Angeles Dodgers	88	$94,945,517	$1,074,855
19	Minnesota Twins	88	$97,559,167	$1,104,443
20	Chicago White Sox	89	$108,273,197	$1,215,708
21	Los Angeles Angels	86	$105,013,667	$1,216,562
22	Houston Astros	67	$92,355,500	$1,379,701
23	Detroit Tigers	84	$122,864,929	$1,456,177
24	Seattle Mariners	65	$98,376,667	$1,513,487
25	Baltimore Orioles	52	$81,612,500	$1,573,176
26	New York Mets	83	$132,701,445	$1,592,417
27	Philadelphia Phillies	87	$141,927,381	$1,630,967
28	Boston Red Sox	92	$162,747,333	$1,775,425
29	Chicago Cubs	75	$146,859,000	$1,950,160
30	New York Yankees	104	$206,333,389	$1,980,441

* Projected wins by end of the season through afternoon games of Sunday, July 25, 2010. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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