Tea Party, The Movie: Panned by Critics, Loved by Audiences

Elite-public gap in evaluation of Tea Party movement as seen through the lens of Hollywood

Despite frequently being cast by the media and the ‘political class’ as extremists and advocating policies from the political fringe, Tea Party endorsed candidates turned heads in Republican primaries across the country this year, beginning with Rand Paul in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race and ending with Christine O’Donnell for Delaware’s U.S. Senate seat and Carl Paladino in New York’s gubernatorial contest.

The transformation in a matter of months from a skewered subclass of supposed ragtag political misfits to an electoral force with increasing clout is unfolding like a script written for the movies.

It will be interesting to see if any documentaries tracing the success of the Tea Party movement begin to roll out in the coming months – though the third act has not yet unfolded, with the general election to be held in a little more than a month.

This disconnect in the evaluation of Tea Party candidates between the political class and electorate thus far in 2010 is not unlike the division often seen in the evaluation of motion pictures by elite (critics) and populist (the movie-going audience) forces.

Just as the political class has been slow to embrace many successful Tea Party candidacies, film critics are also almost universally less supportive of the blockbusters that come out of Hollywood than the public at large.

And the evidence?

Smart Politics analyzed the Rotten Tomatoes scores by critics and by the general public for the top-grossing films released in 2010 – all 37 pictures that have grossed more than $60 million domestically through September 26th.

These 37 films have grossed more than $5 billion collectively to date.

One of the metrics presented by Rotten Tomatoes is the percentage both of critics and the public who liked the movie (in short, those who ‘recommend’ the film). That average yields a percent score between 0 and 100 for both subsets, critics and audiences.

A Smart Politics analysis of Rotten Tomatoes data finds that movie critics have given lower scores to 31 of 37 of the top grossing films of 2010 than the general public, as calculated by the 6,444 reviews by critics and the more than 4.8 million reviews given by audience members for these movies.

The critic-public differential was frequently substantial, tallying a per-film average of 17.1 points overall: critics gave positive reviews just 46.7 percent of the time, compared to 63.8 percent for the public.

Film critics collectively gave positive reviews to just 11 of these 37 top grossing films: Toy Story 3 (99%), How to Train Your Dragon (98%), Inception (87%), Despicable Me (80%), The Other Guys (78%), Iron Man 2 (74%), Get Him to the Greek (73%), The Karate Kid (67%), Shutter Island (67%), Date Night (67%), and Salt (61%).

By contrast, the public gave positive ratings to more than twice the number of films – 23 of 37 – including critically panned films such as The Last Song (19 percent critics, 67 percent public), Dear John (28 percent; 66 percent), Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too? (28 percent, 69 percent), and Prince of Persia: Sands of Time (36 percent, 71 percent).

But some of the most stark examples of the elite-public disconnect in Hollywood over the past decade are Adam Sandler films.

His latest effort in 2010, Grown Ups, notched the largest differential among the year’s top grossing films between critics who recommended the movie (9 percent) versus the public (63 percent), or 54 points.

In other words, the public was 7 times more likely to enjoy and recommend the film than movie ‘experts.’

Despite these extremely negative reviews, Grown Ups went on to gross $161 million in North America.

Large elite-public gaps have also defined recent Sandler films such as Bedtime Stories (24 percent critics, 63 percent public), I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (14 percent, 73 percent), and The Longest Yard (31 percent, 67 percent). These films went on to gross $110, $120, and $158 million respectively in North America.

The point here isn’t whether or not Grown Ups is an objectively good film, as those who have been empowered (or have empowered themselves) to levy such an evaluation have clearly made that decision.

The point is that it is a successful film, and very popular with the American public.

In the same spirit, despite enduring a slew of criticism from the media and political class following her upset of Delaware GOP establishment candidate Mike Castle, Christine O’Donnell has netted more than $2.3 million in fundraising in less than a fortnight since her victory.

However, not every Tea Party endorsed candidate has proven to be a winner in 2010, with candidates such as Karen Deal (losing a run-off election for Georgia’s GOP gubernatorial slot), Chuck DeVore (losing in the GOP California U.S. Senate primary), and Ovide Lamontagne (losing in the GOP New Hampshire U.S. Senate primary) failed to engender enough public support to overcome the establishment forces in their respective races.

There were also similarly a few high profile movies released in 2010 that were panned both by the critics and audiences by approximately the same proportion, such as horror classic remake The Wolf Man (33 percent rating by critics, 39 percent by the public) and the Tom Cruise misstep Knight and Day (53 percent critics, 56 percent public).

Of course, these Rotten Tomatoes evaluations of movies do not fully reflect the views of the entire public, but only that portion of the public who has seen the film (and chooses to rate it on-line at Rotten Tomatoes).

Likewise, public evaluations of candidates – as measured by voter turnout in primaries – can be extremely low, sometimes less than 10 percent of a state’s voting age population.

But the lesson for the political class is that while some candidates may be reviled by elites, such as Paladino in New York, if that candidate can provide a message, particularly if delivered in a unique or charismatic way, they may strike a chord with a significant portion of the electorate.

And that is why films that are viewed with near universal contempt by film critics, such as The Last Airbender (6 percent recommended), The Bounty Hunter (7 percent), or A Nightmare on Elm Street (13 percent), were still recommended by nearly 1 in 2 adults who viewed them (43, 42, and 45 percent respectively).

As such, even if the base of support in the public for bawdy comedies or horror films does not overlap more than a sliver with film critics, that support is nonetheless real.

And even if the base of support in the public for Tea Party candidates does not find much more than a sliver of support among the political class, that support is nonetheless real.

At the risk of downgrading a flailing analogy to a failing one, this report must also acknowledge the fact that many primaries in which Tea Party candidates succeeded were closed contests, permitting only GOPers to vote (e.g. Kentucky, Nevada, Alaska, Delaware).

As such, the true measure of popularity for candidates such as Rand Paul, Sharon Angle, Joe Miller, and Christine O’Donnell will be determined when they are evaluated by the entire voting public – in a general election contest with Democratic, Republican, Independent, and third party voters.

If they win, perhaps Adam Sandler will buy the Tea Party movie rights.

Evaluation Gap of Top Grossing Films of 2010 by Critics and Public

Film grosses (in millions) through September 26, 2010. Source: Rotten Tomatoes data. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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