Smart Politics Projections: Iowa State Senate

Democrats should narrowly prevail in Hawkeye State’s upper legislative chamber to avoid GOP sweep

Current partisan split
Democrat: 32
Republican: 18

On the ballot
Total Democratic seats: 19
Total Republican seats: 6

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 17
Open Democratic seats: 2
Republican incumbents: 4
Open Republican seats: 2

Unchallenged seats
No Democrat on the ballot: 3
No Republican on the ballot: 5

Analysis
Republicans will gain back many of the seats lost in 2006, but will likely fall just short of taking control of the Senate. Enough solid Democratic districts are on the ballot to keep the net Democratic seats (including the 14 not on the ballot) just above 25.

Projection
Partisan shift: GOP +5
Partisan control: Democratic hold