Is Newt Gingrich Too Old to Beat Barack Obama?

In only two of the nation’s 56 presidential elections has the cycle’s older nominee been elected with a greater age difference than Gingrich vis-à-vis Obama

Perhaps it is because he has a reputation for being the most formidable debater on the stage and having a mind that is as sharp as a tack.

Or perhaps by sharing the debate stage with 76 year-old Ron Paul, he appears younger than his 68 years.

Or perhaps Americans are becoming less ageist, are evolving in their views as to how old a president can be.

Whatever the explanation, Newt Gingrich is surging in the polls and his elevated age has not become even the slightest issue in the campaign to date.

As a result, Republican voters are positioning themselves (for the moment) to once again nominate a presidential candidate to run against a much younger Democrat.

That strategy hasn’t worked out so well in recent years, and one would expect Republicans are keenly aware that the last three victorious Democratic presidential candidates were all quite youthful: 46 years old (Clinton, 1992), 50 years old (Clinton, 1996), and 47 years old (Obama, 2008).

The Republican nominees, meanwhile, were all substantially older during these elections, and, in fact, these three cycles were marked by the three greatest age disparities among major party nominees in U.S. presidential history:

· In 2008, John McCain was 24 years, 11 months, and 7 days older than Barack Obama.

· In 1996, Bob Dole was 23 years and 29 days older than Bill Clinton.

· In 1992, George H.W. Bush was 22 years, 2 months, and 1 day older than Clinton.

And how has the Republican Party responded to this trend in the 2012 election cycle?

First, each of the party’s “young gun” all-stars opted to sit this one out on the sidelines: Marco Rubio (age 40), Bobby Jindal (40), Paul Ryan (41), Sarah Palin (47), and Chris Christie (49).

Meanwhile, the 2012 GOP field’s two youngest candidates made quick exits from the race: Michigan U.S. Representative Thad McCotter (age 45) and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (51).

The next four youngest contenders currently comprise the bottom four slots in both national and state public opinion polls: Jon Huntsman (age 51), Rick Santorum (53), Michele Bachmann (55), and Rick Perry (61).

Thus, with the three oldest 2012 GOP White House hopefuls residing at the top of the polls this cycle – in Gingrich (age 68), Mitt Romney (64), and Ron Paul (76) – the Republican Party seems destined, once again, to put up a nominee who is substantially older than the Democrat.

And if that nominee is Gingrich – who would be 69 years old on Election Day – the party would seemingly be taking another historic gamble.

Admittedly, there society changes its definition of ‘old’ as well as when age becomes a fair game issue with a running for president.

This ‘old age’ baseline in the U.S. – despite the visual (i.e. televised) age in which Americans live – may have risen in recent decades along with the increase in life expectancy.

For example, when Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980, the average male could expect to live 70 years according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The life expectancy for the average male born today is nearly 10 percent longer at 76 years.

Throughout history, younger candidates have not had an advantage over their older opponents per se.

In fact, the older nominee has won 29 elections versus 24 for the younger nominee (with three nominees running unopposed in 1789, 1792, and 1820).

But that is not to say the age differential between President Obama and the former House Speaker would not be striking.

Gingrich, born on June 19, 1943, is 18 years, 1 month, and 17 days older than Obama (born August 4, 1961).

In only two of the nation’s 56 presidential elections has the cycle’s older nominee been elected with a greater age disparity than Gingrich vis-à-vis Obama.

In 1856, Democrat James Buchanan defeated Republican John Frémont by a 174-114 Electoral Vote count, with former president Millard Fillmore winning 21 percent of the vote on the American Party ticket.

Buchanan – a former U.S. Secretary of State, U.S. Senator, U.S. Representative, and Ambassador dating back 35 years to the early 1820s – was 21 years, 8 months, and 30 days older than Frémont.

Up until that contest, the previous record for greatest age disparity in favor of the elder candidate was James Madison in his victory over DeWitt Clinton in 1812. Madison was 17 years, 11 months, and 15 days older than Clinton.

Buchanan, who was 65 years old on Election Day in 1856, has seen his mark hold for the next 150+ years, with the only cycle close to eclipsing his mark coming in 1944, when Franklin Roosevelt was elected to a fourth term.

In that cycle, Roosevelt was 20 years, 1 month, and 25 days older than Republican challenger Thomas Dewey.

In each of the five other instances in U.S. history in which one of the major party presidential nominees was at least 18 years older than his opponent – the older nominee lost.

In addition to the aforementioned 1992, 1996, and 2008 cycles, the other instances came in 1844 when Henry Clay lost to James Polk (with Clay 18 years, 6 months, and 22 days Polk’s senior) and in 1852 when Winfield Scott lost to Franklin Pierce (with Scott 18 years, 5 months, and 11 days Pierce’s senior).

And then there is this fact.

Of the 12 instances in which a winning presidential candidate was 10 or more years older than this opponent, nine were incumbents, two ran in open seat contests, and just one defeated a sitting president (Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter in 1980 (at 13 years, 7 months, and 26 days):

The nine incumbents were FDR over Thomas Dewey in 1944 (20 years, 1 month, 25 days), James Madison over DeWitt Clinton in 1812 (17 years, 11 months, 15 days), Harry Truman over Dewey in 1948 (17 years, 10 months, 17 days), Abraham Lincoln over George McClellan in 1864 (17 years, 9 months, 22 days), William McKinley over William J. Bryan in 1900 (17 years, 1 month, 20 days), Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale in 1984 (16 years, 11 months, 0 days), Lincoln over John Breckinridge in 1860 (11 years, 11 months, 5 days), Andrew Jackson over Henry Clay in 1832 (10 years, 29 days), and FDR over Wendell Wilkie in 1940 (10 months, 20 days).

The two open seat winners were James Buchanan over John Frémont in 1856 (21 years, 8 months, 30 days) and William McKinley over William J. Bryan in 1896 (17 years, 1 month, 20 days).

But it is not simply the difference in age between Obama and Gingrich that stands out, but Gingrich’s age in and of itself.

If nominated next summer and victorious next November, Gingrich would become the second oldest man elected president at 69 years, 4 months, and 19 days.

Only Ronald Reagan was older when he was elected in 1980 (69 years, 8 months, 30 days) and reelected in 1984 (73 years, 9 months, 1 day).

It is then perhaps no coincidence that Gingrich has far and away cited Ronald Reagan in the debates more than any other candidate.

Despite this history, Gingrich is hoping that the definition of ‘change’ in 2012 marks a return to an (old) familiar face.

Age Difference Between Winning and Losing Presidential Candidates

Year	Winner	Loser	Years	Months	Days
1856	James Buchanan	John Fremont	21	8	30
1944	Franklin Roosevelt	Thomas Dewey	20	1	25
1812	James Madison	DeWitt Clinton	17	11	15
1948	Harry Truman	Thomas Dewey	17	10	17
1864	Abraham Lincoln	George McClellan	17	9	22
1900	William McKinley	William J. Bryan	17	1	20
1896	William McKinley	William J. Bryan	17	1	20
1984	Ronald Reagan	Walter Mondale	16	11	0
1980	Ronald Reagan	Jimmy Carter	13	7	26
1860	Abraham Lincoln	John Breckinridge	11	11	5
1832	Andrew Jackson	Henry Clay	10	0	29
1940	Franklin Roosevelt	Wendell Wilkie	10	0	20
1840	William H. Harrison	Martin Van Buren	9	9	27
1824	John Q. Adams	Henry Clay	9	9	2
1972	Richard Nixon	George McGovern	9	6	11
1988	George H.W. Bush	Michael Dukakis	9	4	23
1956	Dwight Eisenhower	Adlai Stevenson	9	3	23
1952	Dwight Eisenhower	Adlai Stevenson	9	3	23
1856	James Buchanan	Millard Fillmore	8	8	16
1796	John Adams	Jefferson	7	5	15
1968	Richard Nixon	George Wallace	6	7	17
1936	Franklin Roosevelt	Alf Landon	5	7	11
1916	Woodrow Wilson	Charles Evans Hughes	5	3	15
1824	John Q. Adams	William Crawford	4	7	14
1920	Warren Harding	James Cox	4	4	30
1860	Abraham Lincoln	Stephen Douglas	4	2	12
1888	Benjamin Harrison	Grover Cleveland	3	6	27
1804	Thomas Jefferson	Charles Pinckney	2	10	13
1908	William Taft	William J. Bryan	2	6	5
1912	Woodrow Wilson	Teddy Roosevelt	1	10	0
2000	George W. Bush	Al Gore	1	8	26
1924	Calvin Coolidge	John Davis	0	9	10
1912	Woodrow Wilson	William H. Taft	0	8	19
1964	Lyndon Johnson	Barry Goldwater	0	4	7
1828	Andrew Jackson	John Q. Adams	0	3	27
1824	John Q. Adams	Andrew Jackson	-0	3	27
1928	Herbert Hoover	Al Smith	-0	7	12
1968	Richard Nixon	Hubert Humphrey	-1	7	14
1848	Zachary Taylor	Lewis Cass	-2	1	16
2004	George W. Bush	John Kerry	-2	6	26
1816	James Monroe	Rufus King	-3	1	5
1892	Grover Cleveland	Benjamin Harrison	-3	6	27
1892	Grover Cleveland	James Weaver	-3	8	25
1960	John Kennedy	Richard Nixon	-4	4	21
1808	James Madison	Charles Pinckney	-5	0	20
1904	Teddy Roosevelt	Alton Parker	-6	5	14
1884	Grover Cleveland	James Blaine	-7	1	19
1800	Thomas Jefferson	J. Adams	-7	5	15
1932	Franklin Roosevelt	Herbert Hoover	-7	5	21
1880	James Garfield	Winfield Hancock	-7	9	6
1876	Rutherford Hayes	Samuel Tilden	-8	7	26
1836	Martin Van Buren	William H. Harrison	-9	9	27
1976	Jimmy Carter	Gerald Ford	-11	2	18
1872	Ulysses Grant	Horace Greeley	-11	2	25
1868	Ulysses Grant	Horatio Seymour	-11	10	28
1860	Abraham Lincoln	John Bell	-12	11	26
1996	Bill Clinton	Ross Perot	-16	1	24
1992	Bill Clinton	Ross Perot	-16	1	24
1924	Calvin Coolidge	Robert LaFollette	-17	1	1
1852	Franklin Pierce	Winfield Scott	-18	5	11
1844	James Polk	Henry Clay	-18	6	22
1992	Bill Clinton	George H.W. Bush	-22	2	1
1996	Bill Clinton	Bob Dole	-23	0	29
2008	Barack Obama	John McCain	-24	11	7

Notes: Includes major third party candidates that received a significant percentage of the vote and appeared on most state ballots. The elections of two presidents – George Washington (1789, 1792) and James Monroe (1820) – are not listed as they ran without opposition. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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