Splitting the Electorate

With new polls released this week showing uncertainty at the top of the leader board in the Wisconsin GOP U.S. Senate race, the four-candidate field of Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and Jeff Fitzgerald is likely to produce not only a plurality winner next month, but possibly all four candidates in double-digits. This would not be unprecedented in the Badger State. Four candidates hit at least 10 percent in the Republican U.S. Senate primaries of 1914 (led by Francis McGovern at 32.2 percent), 1940 (Fred Clausen, 31.2 percent), 1980 (Robert Kasten, 36.8 percent), and 1994 (Robert Welch, 47.4 percent). In the GOP primary of 1938, a record five candidates reached double digits in a six-candidate field, led by future Senator Alexander Wiley with 32.9 percent.