Which State Will Host the Most Closely Decided Presidential Race in 2012?
Since 1824, Kentucky and Maryland have each hosted the closest statewide presidential contests five times; Ohio last did so in back-to-back cycles in 1944 and 1948
With a week to go until Election Day, it is still unclear which presidential candidate will end up victorious in as many as 20 percent of the states across the country.
The battlegrounds of 2012 are certainly earning their name this cycle with as many as 10 states still up for grabs.
And which state will be decided by the most razor-thin margin on November 6th?
Nine states have had at least one poll released in the last week that show the Romney-Obama contest within one percentage point: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
In recent cycles, the closest statewide presidential contests took place in Missouri in 2008 (won by John McCain, 0.13 points), Wisconsin in 2004 (John Kerry, 0.38 points), Florida in 2000 (George W. Bush, 0.01 points), Kentucky in 1996 (Bill Clinton, 0.96 points), and Georgia in 1992 (Clinton, 0.59 points).
And since 1824, there have been 29 different states who held this title.
Kentucky (1896, 1900, 1920, 1952, 1996) and Maryland (1824, 1828, 1832, 1872, 1904) lead the way with five cycles each of hosting the most narrowly decided presidential contest.
In the Election of 1832, Henry Clay defeated incumbent Democrat Andrew Jackson by just four votes out of more than 38,300 cast in the Old Line State.
Maryland’s contest was decided by just 232 votes in 1828 (with John Quincy Adams defeating Jackson) and 109 votes in 1824 (with Adams beating Jackson, William Crawford, and Henry Clay).
On only two other occasions has the closest statewide presidential race taken place in the same state in back-to-back cycles: in Kentucky (1896, 1900) and Ohio (1944 and 1948).
In 1896, Republican William McKinley nipped Democrat William Bryan by 0.06 points in the Bluegrass State.
In 1900, Bryan defeated McKinley in Kentucky by 1.71 points, even as the Democratic challenger performed worse across the nation overall.
In 1944, Republican Thomas Dewey edged FDR by 0.37 points to win the state’s 25 electoral votes. Four years later, Dewey fell to Democrat Harry Truman by an even closer margin – 0.24 points.
Missouri – unofficially dubbed the bellwether state of the 20th Century – has hosted the tightest presidential statewide race four times: in 1908, 1956, 1968, and 2008.
California has done so in three cycles (1868, 1880, 1892) with two each for Minnesota (1972, 1984), Ohio (1944, 1948), New Hampshire (1916, 1936), Connecticut (1888, 1932), and New York (1864, 1884).
Twenty states can lay claim to the narrowest margin of victory in a presidential race one time: New Jersey (1836), Pennsylvania (1840), Tennessee (1844), Alabama (1848), Delaware (1852), Louisiana (1856), Virginia (1860), South Carolina (1876), Vermont (1912), North Dakota (1924), Rhode Island (1928), Michigan (1940), Hawaii (1960), Arizona (1964), Oregon (1976), Massachusetts (1980), Washington (1988), Georgia (1992), Florida (2000), and Wisconsin (2004).
Of course, an election cycle’s most closely decided race doesn’t always make headlines, as even landslides inevitably produce a few competitive statewide races.
For example, in 1964 and 1984 the only interesting thing about the nation’s narrowest victories in Arizona (Barry Goldwater, 0.99 points) and Minnesota (Walter Mondale, 0.18 points) is that the losing challengers eked out wins in their home states while netting only 52 and 13 electoral votes respectively.
Or, in 1936, there was nothing particularly noteworthy about Franklin Roosevelt’s 1.75-point win in New Hampshire during his landslide win, other than the fact that the next closest race was decided by six more points (FDR winning Kansas by 7.72 points).
Overall, the closest statewide presidential race was decided by less than one point in 36 of the 47 cycles since 1824 and by less than one-tenth of a point in 11 cycles.
In 2012, it is conceivable that the most narrowly decided state will not be one of the top ‘battlegrounds.’
If either Romney or Obama perform much more strongly than current polls suggest, then a state like Missouri (in the case of a great day for Obama) or Minnesota (in the case of a great day for Romney) might end up with the narrowest victory margin across the 50 states.
The Closest Statewide Presidential Contests by Cycle, 1824-2008
|
Year
|
State
|
1st
|
Party
|
2nd
|
Party
|
MoV
|
|
2008
|
MO
|
John McCain
|
GOP
|
Barack Obama
|
DEM
|
0.13
|
|
2004
|
WI
|
John Kerry
|
DEM
|
George W. Bush
|
GOP
|
0.38
|
|
2000
|
FL
|
George W. Bush
|
GOP
|
Al Gore
|
DEM
|
0.01
|
|
1996
|
KY
|
Bill Clinton
|
DEM
|
Bob Dole
|
GOP
|
0.96
|
|
1992
|
GA
|
Bill Clinton
|
DEM
|
George H.W. Bush
|
GOP
|
0.59
|
|
1988
|
WA
|
Michael Dukakis
|
DEM
|
George H.W. Bush
|
GOP
|
1.59
|
|
1984
|
MN
|
Walter Mondale
|
DEM
|
Ronald Reagan
|
GOP
|
0.18
|
|
1980
|
MA
|
Ronald Reagan
|
GOP
|
Jimmy Carter
|
DEM
|
0.15
|
|
1976
|
OR
|
Gerald Ford
|
GOP
|
Jimmy Carter
|
DEM
|
0.17
|
|
1972
|
MN
|
Richard Nixon
|
GOP
|
George McGovern
|
DEM
|
5.51
|
|
1968
|
MO
|
Richard Nixon
|
GOP
|
Hubert Humphrey
|
DEM
|
1.13
|
|
1964
|
AZ
|
Barry Goldwater
|
GOP
|
Lyndon Johnson
|
DEM
|
0.99
|
|
1960
|
HI
|
John Kennedy
|
DEM
|
Richard Nixon
|
GOP
|
0.06
|
|
1956
|
MO
|
Adlai Stevenson
|
DEM
|
Dwight Eisenhower
|
GOP
|
0.22
|
|
1952
|
KY
|
Adlai Stevenson
|
DEM
|
Dwight Eisenhower
|
GOP
|
0.07
|
|
1948
|
OH
|
Harry Truman
|
DEM
|
Thomas Dewey
|
GOP
|
0.24
|
|
1944
|
OH
|
Thomas Dewey
|
GOP
|
Franklin Roosevelt
|
DEM
|
0.37
|
|
1940
|
MI
|
Wendell Willkie
|
GOP
|
Franklin Roosevelt
|
DEM
|
0.33
|
|
1936
|
NH
|
Franklin Roosevelt
|
DEM
|
Alf Landon
|
DEM
|
1.75
|
|
1932
|
CT
|
Herbert Hoover
|
GOP
|
Franklin Roosevelt
|
DEM
|
1.14
|
|
1928
|
RI
|
Al Smith
|
DEM
|
Herbert Hoover
|
GOP
|
0.61
|
|
1924
|
ND
|
Calvin Coolidge
|
GOP
|
Robert LaFollette
|
PROG
|
2.52
|
|
1920
|
KY
|
James Cox
|
DEM
|
Warren Harding
|
GOP
|
0.44
|
|
1916
|
NH
|
Woodrow Wilson
|
DEM
|
Charles Hughes
|
GOP
|
0.06
|
|
1912
|
VT
|
William Taft
|
GOP
|
Teddy Roosevelt
|
PROG
|
1.91
|
|
1908
|
MO
|
William Taft
|
GOP
|
William Bryan
|
DEM
|
0.09
|
|
1904
|
MD
|
Teddy Roosevelt
|
GOP
|
Alton Parker
|
DEM
|
0.02
|
|
1900
|
KY
|
William Bryan
|
DEM
|
William McKinley
|
GOP
|
1.71
|
|
1896
|
KY
|
William McKinley
|
GOP
|
William Bryan
|
DEM
|
0.06
|
|
1892
|
CA
|
Grover Cleveland
|
DEM
|
Benjamin Harrison
|
GOP
|
0.05
|
|
1888
|
CT
|
Grover Cleveland
|
DEM
|
Benjamin Harrison
|
GOP
|
0.22
|
|
1884
|
NY
|
Grover Cleveland
|
DEM
|
James Blaine
|
GOP
|
0.10
|
|
1880
|
CA
|
Winfield Hancock
|
DEM
|
James Garfield
|
GOP
|
0.09
|
|
1876
|
SC
|
Rutherford Hayes
|
GOP
|
Samuel Tilden
|
GOP
|
0.49
|
|
1872
|
MD
|
Horace Greeley
|
DEM
|
Ulysses Grant
|
GOP
|
0.69
|
|
1868
|
CA
|
Ulysses Grant
|
GOP
|
Horatio Seymour
|
DEM
|
0.48
|
|
1864
|
NY
|
Abraham Lincoln
|
GOP
|
George McClellan
|
DEM
|
0.92
|
|
1860
|
VA
|
John Bell
|
CON UNION
|
John Breckenridge
|
SOUTH DEM
|
0.09
|
|
1856
|
LA
|
James Buchanan
|
DEM
|
Millard Fillmore
|
AMERICAN
|
3.39
|
|
1852
|
DE
|
Franklin Pierce
|
DEM
|
Winfield Scott
|
WHIG
|
0.20
|
|
1848
|
AL
|
Lewis Cass
|
DEM
|
Zachary Taylor
|
WHIG
|
1.12
|
|
1844
|
TN
|
Henry Clay
|
WHIG
|
James Polk
|
DEM
|
0.10
|
|
1840
|
PA
|
William Harrison
|
WHIG
|
Martin Van Buren
|
DEM
|
0.12
|
|
1836
|
NJ
|
William Harrison
|
WHIG
|
Martin Van Buren
|
DEM
|
1.05
|
|
1832
|
MD
|
Henry Clay
|
NAT’L REP
|
Andrew Jackson
|
DEM
|
0.01
|
|
1828
|
MD
|
John Q. Adams
|
NAT’L REP
|
Andrew Jackson
|
DEM
|
0.51
|
|
1824
|
MD
|
John Q. Adams
|
DEM-REP
|
Andrew Jackson
|
DEM-REP
|
0.33
|
Table compiled by Smart Politics.
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