Which State Will Host the Most Closely Decided Presidential Race in 2012?

Since 1824, Kentucky and Maryland have each hosted the closest statewide presidential contests five times; Ohio last did so in back-to-back cycles in 1944 and 1948

With a week to go until Election Day, it is still unclear which presidential candidate will end up victorious in as many as 20 percent of the states across the country.

The battlegrounds of 2012 are certainly earning their name this cycle with as many as 10 states still up for grabs.

And which state will be decided by the most razor-thin margin on November 6th?

Nine states have had at least one poll released in the last week that show the Romney-Obama contest within one percentage point: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

In recent cycles, the closest statewide presidential contests took place in Missouri in 2008 (won by John McCain, 0.13 points), Wisconsin in 2004 (John Kerry, 0.38 points), Florida in 2000 (George W. Bush, 0.01 points), Kentucky in 1996 (Bill Clinton, 0.96 points), and Georgia in 1992 (Clinton, 0.59 points).

And since 1824, there have been 29 different states who held this title.

Kentucky (1896, 1900, 1920, 1952, 1996) and Maryland (1824, 1828, 1832, 1872, 1904) lead the way with five cycles each of hosting the most narrowly decided presidential contest.

In the Election of 1832, Henry Clay defeated incumbent Democrat Andrew Jackson by just four votes out of more than 38,300 cast in the Old Line State.

Maryland’s contest was decided by just 232 votes in 1828 (with John Quincy Adams defeating Jackson) and 109 votes in 1824 (with Adams beating Jackson, William Crawford, and Henry Clay).

On only two other occasions has the closest statewide presidential race taken place in the same state in back-to-back cycles: in Kentucky (1896, 1900) and Ohio (1944 and 1948).

In 1896, Republican William McKinley nipped Democrat William Bryan by 0.06 points in the Bluegrass State.

In 1900, Bryan defeated McKinley in Kentucky by 1.71 points, even as the Democratic challenger performed worse across the nation overall.

In 1944, Republican Thomas Dewey edged FDR by 0.37 points to win the state’s 25 electoral votes. Four years later, Dewey fell to Democrat Harry Truman by an even closer margin – 0.24 points.

Missouri – unofficially dubbed the bellwether state of the 20th Century – has hosted the tightest presidential statewide race four times: in 1908, 1956, 1968, and 2008.

California has done so in three cycles (1868, 1880, 1892) with two each for Minnesota (1972, 1984), Ohio (1944, 1948), New Hampshire (1916, 1936), Connecticut (1888, 1932), and New York (1864, 1884).

Twenty states can lay claim to the narrowest margin of victory in a presidential race one time: New Jersey (1836), Pennsylvania (1840), Tennessee (1844), Alabama (1848), Delaware (1852), Louisiana (1856), Virginia (1860), South Carolina (1876), Vermont (1912), North Dakota (1924), Rhode Island (1928), Michigan (1940), Hawaii (1960), Arizona (1964), Oregon (1976), Massachusetts (1980), Washington (1988), Georgia (1992), Florida (2000), and Wisconsin (2004).

Of course, an election cycle’s most closely decided race doesn’t always make headlines, as even landslides inevitably produce a few competitive statewide races.

For example, in 1964 and 1984 the only interesting thing about the nation’s narrowest victories in Arizona (Barry Goldwater, 0.99 points) and Minnesota (Walter Mondale, 0.18 points) is that the losing challengers eked out wins in their home states while netting only 52 and 13 electoral votes respectively.

Or, in 1936, there was nothing particularly noteworthy about Franklin Roosevelt’s 1.75-point win in New Hampshire during his landslide win, other than the fact that the next closest race was decided by six more points (FDR winning Kansas by 7.72 points).

Overall, the closest statewide presidential race was decided by less than one point in 36 of the 47 cycles since 1824 and by less than one-tenth of a point in 11 cycles.

In 2012, it is conceivable that the most narrowly decided state will not be one of the top ‘battlegrounds.’

If either Romney or Obama perform much more strongly than current polls suggest, then a state like Missouri (in the case of a great day for Obama) or Minnesota (in the case of a great day for Romney) might end up with the narrowest victory margin across the 50 states.

The Closest Statewide Presidential Contests by Cycle, 1824-2008

Year	State	1st	Party	2nd	Party	MoV
2008	MO	John McCain	GOP	Barack Obama	DEM	0.13
2004	WI	John Kerry	DEM	George W. Bush	GOP	0.38
2000	FL	George W. Bush	GOP	Al Gore	DEM	0.01
1996	KY	Bill Clinton	DEM	Bob Dole	GOP	0.96
1992	GA	Bill Clinton	DEM	George H.W. Bush	GOP	0.59
1988	WA	Michael Dukakis	DEM	George H.W. Bush	GOP	1.59
1984	MN	Walter Mondale	DEM	Ronald Reagan	GOP	0.18
1980	MA	Ronald Reagan	GOP	Jimmy Carter	DEM	0.15
1976	OR	Gerald Ford	GOP	Jimmy Carter	DEM	0.17
1972	MN	Richard Nixon	GOP	George McGovern	DEM	5.51
1968	MO	Richard Nixon	GOP	Hubert Humphrey	DEM	1.13
1964	AZ	Barry Goldwater	GOP	Lyndon Johnson	DEM	0.99
1960	HI	John Kennedy	DEM	Richard Nixon	GOP	0.06
1956	MO	Adlai Stevenson	DEM	Dwight Eisenhower	GOP	0.22
1952	KY	Adlai Stevenson	DEM	Dwight Eisenhower	GOP	0.07
1948	OH	Harry Truman	DEM	Thomas Dewey	GOP	0.24
1944	OH	Thomas Dewey	GOP	Franklin Roosevelt	DEM	0.37
1940	MI	Wendell Willkie	GOP	Franklin Roosevelt	DEM	0.33
1936	NH	Franklin Roosevelt	DEM	Alf Landon	DEM	1.75
1932	CT	Herbert Hoover	GOP	Franklin Roosevelt	DEM	1.14
1928	RI	Al Smith	DEM	Herbert Hoover	GOP	0.61
1924	ND	Calvin Coolidge	GOP	Robert LaFollette	PROG	2.52
1920	KY	James Cox	DEM	Warren Harding	GOP	0.44
1916	NH	Woodrow Wilson	DEM	Charles Hughes	GOP	0.06
1912	VT	William Taft	GOP	Teddy Roosevelt	PROG	1.91
1908	MO	William Taft	GOP	William Bryan	DEM	0.09
1904	MD	Teddy Roosevelt	GOP	Alton Parker	DEM	0.02
1900	KY	William Bryan	DEM	William McKinley	GOP	1.71
1896	KY	William McKinley	GOP	William Bryan	DEM	0.06
1892	CA	Grover Cleveland	DEM	Benjamin Harrison	GOP	0.05
1888	CT	Grover Cleveland	DEM	Benjamin Harrison	GOP	0.22
1884	NY	Grover Cleveland	DEM	James Blaine	GOP	0.10
1880	CA	Winfield Hancock	DEM	James Garfield	GOP	0.09
1876	SC	Rutherford Hayes	GOP	Samuel Tilden	GOP	0.49
1872	MD	Horace Greeley	DEM	Ulysses Grant	GOP	0.69
1868	CA	Ulysses Grant	GOP	Horatio Seymour	DEM	0.48
1864	NY	Abraham Lincoln	GOP	George McClellan	DEM	0.92
1860	VA	John Bell	CON UNION	John Breckenridge	SOUTH DEM	0.09
1856	LA	James Buchanan	DEM	Millard Fillmore	AMERICAN	3.39
1852	DE	Franklin Pierce	DEM	Winfield Scott	WHIG	0.20
1848	AL	Lewis Cass	DEM	Zachary Taylor	WHIG	1.12
1844	TN	Henry Clay	WHIG	James Polk	DEM	0.10
1840	PA	William Harrison	WHIG	Martin Van Buren	DEM	0.12
1836	NJ	William Harrison	WHIG	Martin Van Buren	DEM	1.05
1832	MD	Henry Clay	NAT’L REP	Andrew Jackson	DEM	0.01
1828	MD	John Q. Adams	NAT’L REP	Andrew Jackson	DEM	0.51
1824	MD	John Q. Adams	DEM-REP	Andrew Jackson	DEM-REP	0.33

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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