CT, IL, MN Gubernatorial Races: From 2010 Nail-Biters to 2014 Snoozers?

Since 1900, there have been 18 candidates elected governor by less than one percentage point who won reelection the next cycle by double-digits; could Dan Malloy, Mark Dayton, and Pat Quinn do the same in 2014?

Mark Dayton finally got a Republican challenger Wednesday with the candidacy announcement of investment banker Scott Honour – some two years, five months, and 22 days since Dayton defeated Tom Emmer in the nation’s most closely contested gubernatorial race of the 2010 cycle.

Smart Politics recently wrote of the big incumbency advantage Minnesota governors have enjoyed across state history, although less so among the comparatively few Democratic incumbents that have served the state over the decades.

Dayton, who defeated Emmer by 0.4 points in 2010, is one of three Democratic incumbents running in 2014 who got into office during the Republican tsunami of 2010 with victory margins of less than one percentage point – along with Connecticut’s Dan Malloy (beating Tom Foley by 0.6 points) and Illinois’ Pat Quinn (defeating Bill Brady by 0.9 points).

Dayton, Malloy, and Quinn are rated as favored to heavily favored to win reelection in 2014 by most prognosticators despite these aforementioned close shaves last cycle. (Provided Quinn receives his party’s nomination, that is).

But is there reason to think Republicans, who came so close to winning these seats in 2010 could be blown out in one or more of these races four years later?

History says yes.

A Smart Politics analysis of over 1,800 gubernatorial elections conducted since 1900 finds that governors who were elected by less than one point have come back the next cycle to win by double-digits 18 times, including 10 times over the last 30 years.

It has already happened in Minnesota and Connecticut during this span.

Nearly 60 years ago in Connecticut, Democrat Abraham Ribicoff defeated GOP incumbent John Lodge by 0.3 points in 1954 and then trounced challenger Fred Zeller by 25.3 points four years later in 1958.

In Minnesota, Republican Samuel Van Sant defeated Democratic incumbent John Lind by 0.7 points in 1900, and then returned two years later to soundly defeat challenger Leonard Rosing by 20.7 points.

It also happened to Franklin Roosevelt in New York.

Roosevelt defeated Albert Ottinger in 1928 by 0.6 points and then crushed Republican Charles Tuttle by 23.1 points in his reelection bid two years later.

It happened most recently in the 2006 cycle in two states: Alabama and Oklahoma.

In Alabama, Republican Bob Riley defeated Lucy Baxley by 15.9 points four years after knocking off Democratic incumbent Don Siegelman by a mere 0.2 points

In Oklahoma, Democrat Brad Henry edged out Steve Largent by 0.7 points in 2002 in a competitive three-candidate race and then cruised to a 33-point reelection win over Ernest Istook in 2006.

It has also happened to some of the longest serving governors in U.S. history:

· Democrat Cecil Andrus of Idaho (#11 all time): Winning by 0.9 points in 1986 and 36.4 points in 1990.

· Republican James Thompson of Illinois (#13): Winning by 0.1 point in 1982 and 12.7 points in 1986.

· Democrat Soapy Williams of Michigan (#24): Winning by 0.3 points in 1952 and 11.6 points in 1954.

· Republican John Engler of Michigan (#24): Winning by 0.7 points in 1990 and 23.0 points in 1994.

· Democrat William Guy of North Dakota (#39): Winning by 0.9 points in 1962 and 11.5 points in 1964.

And which of the three Democratic governors who eked out victories in 2010 is most likely to be added to this list?

The odds on favorite is Dayton, unless a big name Republican is lured into the race in the coming months, such as John Kline or Erik Paulsen. (Unlikely prospects both).

In Connecticut, one could expect a tighter race as Tom Foley has expressed his intention to seek a rematch against Malloy. However, without the national GOP winds at his back it may be difficult for Foley to generate another nail-biter finish this cycle.

In Illinois, things are murkier as a legitimate Democratic primary challenge of Governor Quinn (such as by State Attorney General Lisa Madigan) adds a wrinkle that does not exist in Minnesota or Connecticut where the incumbent governors are certain to win their party’s nomination.

Gubernatorial Candidates Who Followed up < 1 Point Victories with Double-Digit Wins

State	Governor	Party	Cycle 1	MoV	Cycle 2	MoV
Minnesota	Samuel Van Sant	Republican	1900	0.7	1902	20.7
Maryland	Albert Ritchie	Democrat	1919	0.1	1923	12.7
New York	Franklin Roosevelt	Democrat	1928	0.6	1930	23.1
Kansas	Payne Ratner	Republican	1940	0.1	1942	14.9
Michigan	Soapy Williams	Democrat	1952	0.3	1954	11.6
Connecticut	Abraham Ribicoff	Democrat	1954	0.3	1958	25.3
Rhode Island	John Chafee	Republican	1962	0.1	1964	22.3
North Dakota	William Guy	Democrat	1962	0.9	1964	11.5
New Jersey	Thomas Kean	Republican	1981	0.1	1985	40.3
Illinois	James Thompson	Republican	1982	0.1	1986	12.7
Idaho	Cecil Andrus	Democrat	1986	0.9	1990	36.4
Nebraska	Ben Nelson	Democrat	1990	0.7	1994	47.5
Michigan	John Engler	Republican	1990	0.7	1994	23.0
Alaska	Tony Knowles	Democrat	1994	0.2	1998	33.0
Maryland	Parris Glendening	Democrat	1994	0.4	1998	10.3
Colorado	Bill Owens	Republican	1998	0.6	2002	29.0
Oklahoma	Brad Henry	Democrat	2002	0.7	2006	33.0
Alabama	Bob Riley	Republican	2002	0.2	2006	15.9

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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