Return of the King: Charlie Crist and Ex-Governor Comebacks

More than half of ex-governors have been victorious in general election bids to return to their old seats since 1945

It is unclear at this point whether Charlie Crist’s most dangerous opponent in Florida’s 2014 gubernatorial election is one-term Republican incumbent Rick Scott or current Democratic U.S. Senator Bill Nelson.

Crist, who kicked off his campaign for his old job earlier this month, has been consistently leading Governor Scott in matchup polls conducted over the last few years.

But recent reports now indicate Senator Nelson might consider entering the race if Crists’ campaign to win back the seat for the Democratic Party for the first time since Lawton Chiles in 1994 begins to falter.

If Crist can keep Nelson on the bench over the next year, what kind of odds does he face in making a return to Tallahassee as the Sunshine State’s chief executive?

A Smart Politics review of gubernatorial elections since the end of World War II finds that ex-governors have won back their old seat 57 percent of the time out of nearly seven-dozen such contests conducted during this 68-year period.

Since 1945, a total of 81 ex-governors have appeared on the general election ballot for their old seat, with 46 notching victorious campaigns, or 57 percent, and 35 losing in their comeback attempts.

During the 2010 cycle, three ex-governors won back their seats – California Democrat Jerry Brown, Iowa Republican Terry Branstad, and Oregon Democrat John Kitzhaber.

Two others, meanwhile, were unsuccessful in their comeback bids: Georgia Democrat Roy Barnes and Maryland Republican Bob Ehrlich.

In only two other cycles since the end of World War II have more ex-governors won elections to their old post.

In 1948, five former governors ran successful gubernatorial campaigns: Washington Republican Arthur Langlie and Democrats Henry Schricker of Indiana, Earl Long of Louisiana, Frank Lausche of Ohio, and Gordon Browning of Tennessee.

After the Election of 1982, four ex-governors – all Democrats – returned to their gubernatorial post: George Wallace of Alabama, Bill Clinton of Arkansas, Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts, and Rudy Perpich of Minnesota.

In addition to 2010, three ex-governors have been elected in three additional cycles over the past seven decades:

· 1960: Democrat Elbert Carvel of Delaware, Democrat Jimmie Davis of Louisiana, and Republican Edwin Mechem of New Mexico.

· 1986: Democrat Cecil Andrus of Idaho, Republican Henry Bellmon of Oklahoma, and Republican Bill Clements of Texas.

· 1990: Democrat Bruce King of New Mexico, Alaska-Independence nominee Wally Hickel, and Republican Richard Snelling of Vermont.

However, a deeper dig into the data finds the odds of success fall off a bit when these ex-governors square up against an incumbent – like Crist would face in Rick Scott.

During these governor-on-governor battles, ex-governors have knocked incumbents out of office just 12 times out of 29 contests since 1945, or 41 percent of the time.

Meanwhile, ex-governors have won 34 of 52 open seat contests, or 65 percent.

As for Florida, no ex-governors have made it back onto the general election ballot since the end of World War II. (Though Democrat Fuller Warren tried – losing his party’s 1956 primary to LeRoy Collins eight years after his 1948 victory).

Over the last 168 years since statehood in 1845, Florida has elected an ex-governor into office only once: Democrat William Bloxham.

Bloxham made his first gubernatorial run as a Liberal Republican in 1872 – losing by 4.8 points to Republican Ossian Hart. Eight years later, Bloxham was elected in the Sunshine State in the first contest after Reconstruction and served four years.

Twelve years later, in 1896, Bloxham was elected to the governor’s mansion for a second time in a landslide – winning by 46.3 points in a three-candidate field.

In addition to Charlie Crist, rumors have circulated that two other former governors might run for their old seat in 2014: Democrat Chet Culver of Iowa and Republican Bill Weld of Massachusetts.

Of course, the first step for all of these former governors is securing their party’s nomination.

In addition to the 81 ex-governors that made it to the general election, there are more than three-dozen others who lost in their party’s primary during this 65+- year span.

Crist is looking strong in that regard should Nelson remain out of the race – with former State Senate Minority Leader Nan Rich trailing the former Republican governor substantially in early polling.

Ex-Governors in Gubernatorial General Elections Since End of World War II

Year	State	Ex-Governor	Party	Outcome
1946	Georgia	Eugene Talmadge	Democrat	Won
1946	Kansas	Harry Woodring	Democrat	Lost
1946	Michigan	Murray Van Wagoner	Democrat	Lost
1948	Indiana	Henry Schricker	Democrat	Won
1948	Louisiana	Earl Long	Democrat	Won
1948	Ohio	Frank Lausche	Democrat	Won
1948	Tennessee	Gordon Browning	Democrat	Won
1948	Washington	Arthur Langlie	Republican	Won
1950	Michigan	Harry Kelly	Republican	Lost
1950	New Mexico	John Miles	Democrat	Lost
1951	Mississippi	Hugh White	Democrat	Won
1952	Missouri	Phil Donnelly	Democrat	Won
1954	Alabama	Jim Folsom	Democrat	Won
1954	Colorado	Ed Johnson	Democrat	Won
1954	Nevada	Vail Pittman	Democrat	Lost
1955	Kentucky	Happy Chandler	Democrat	Won
1956	Louisiana	Earl Long	Democrat	Won
1956	New Mexico	Edwin Mechem	Republican	Won
1956	Texas	Pappy O’Daniel	Democrat	Lost
1958	Maine	Horace Hildreth	Republican	Lost
1958	Tennessee	Jim McCord	Democrat	Lost
1960	Delaware	Elbert Carvel	Democrat	Won
1960	Louisiana	Jimmie Davis	Democrat	Won
1960	New Mexico	Edwin Mechem	Republican	Won
1962	South Dakota	Ralph Herseth	Democrat	Lost
1962	Tennessee	Frank Clement	Democrat	Won
1964	Massachusetts	John Volpe	Republican	Won
1964	Nebraska	Dwight Burney	Republican	Lost
1964	West Virginia	Cecil Underwood	Republican	Lost
1966	New Hampshire	Hugh Gregg	Republican	Lost
1966	Tennessee	Buford Ellington	Democrat	Won
1968	Arizona	Sam Goddard	Democrat	Lost
1969	New Jersey	Robert Meyner	Democrat	Lost
1970	Alabama	George Wallace	Democrat	Won
1970	Alaska	William Egan	Democrat	Won
1970	Iowa	Robert Fulton	Democrat	Lost
1971	Kentucky	Happy Chandler	Democrat	Lost
1972	Indiana	Matthew Welsh	Democrat	Lost
1972	Washington	Albert Rosellini	Democrat	Lost
1973	Virginia	Mills Godwin, Jr.	Republican	Won
1974	Ohio	Jim Rhodes	Republican	Won
1976	West Virginia	Cecil Underwood	Republican	Lost
1978	Alaska	Wally Hickel	Republican	Lost
1978	New Hampshire	Wesley Powell	Republican	Lost
1978	New Mexico	Bruce King	Democrat	Won
1978	Oklahoma	George Nigh	Democrat	Won
1979	Kentucky	Louie Nunn	Republican	Lost
1980	Missouri	Kit Bond	Republican	Won
1980	New Hampshire	Mel Thomson	Republican	Lost
1980	West Virginia	Arch Moore	Republican	Lost
1982	Alabama	George Wallace	Democrat	Won
1982	Arkansas	Bill Clinton	Democrat	Won
1982	Massachusetts	Michael Dukakis	Democrat	Won
1982	Minnesota	Rudy Perpich	Democrat	Won
1982	New Hampshire	Mel Thomson	Republican	Lost
1983	Louisiana	Edwin Edwards	Democrat	Won
1984	West Virginia	Arch Moore	Republican	Won
1986	Alaska	Wally Hickel	Republican	Lost
1986	Arkansas	Frank White	Republican	Lost
1986	Idaho	Cecil Andrus	Democrat	Won
1986	Ohio	Jim Rhodes	Republican	Lost
1986	Oklahoma	Henry Bellmon	Republican	Won
1986	Tennessee	Winfield Dunn	Republican	Lost
1986	Texas	Bill Clements	Republican	Won
1988	Montana	Thomas Judge	Democrat	Lost
1990	Alaska	Wally Hickel	AK-Independence	Won
1990	Maine	Joseph Brennan	Democrat	Lost
1990	New Mexico	Bruce King	Democrat	Won
1990	Vermont	Richard Snelling	Republican	Won
1991	Louisiana	Edwin Edwards	Democrat	Won
1992	North Carolina	Jim Hunt	Democrat	Won
1994	Alabama	Fob James	Republican	Won
1994	Maine	Joseph Brennan	Democrat	Lost
1994	South Dakota	Bill Janklow	Republican	Won
1996	West Virginia	Cecil Underwood	Republican	Won
2006	Alaska	Tony Knowles	Democrat	Lost
2010	California	Jerry Brown	Democrat	Won
2010	Georgia	Roy Barnes	Democrat	Lost
2010	Iowa	Terry Branstad	Republican	Won
2010	Maryland	Bob Ehrlich	Republican	Lost
2010	Oregon	John Kitzhaber	Democrat	Won

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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