Can Pennsylvania Democrats Pick Up Any US House Seats with Corbett Loss?

If Pennsylvania Democrats win the governor’s mansion without netting two U.S. House seats, the party will set a record for shortest gubernatorial coattails in congressional races in state history

The reelection prospects of embattled Republican Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett have been journalistic catnip over the last year, with storylines ranging from failed whispers within the GOP to persuade the governor to retire, to speculation he could be knocked out in a Republican primary, to the very long line of Democratic contenders itching to get a chance at facing the nation’s most vulnerable GOP governor in the general election.

But Pennsylvania Democrats are facing their own struggles – including their attempt to win back a few of the seven U.S. House seats lost between the 2008 and 2012 cycles when the party’s delegation decreased from 12 members to just five.

(Smart Politics previously reported on how redistricting has produced a historically undersized Democratic U.S. House delegation in the 113th Congress vis-à-vis the state’s presidential vote).

At the moment, however, most of the 13 GOP congressional districts seem safe, with Mike Fitzpatrick’s 8th CD seat perhaps the most likely to flip.

That means Democrats in Washington are counting on a very strong performance by their gubernatorial nominee at the top of the ticket (with U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz the early favorite) to give some of the party’s down the ballot U.S. House hopefuls a chance at victory.

For, as it stands now, a Democratic gubernatorial pick-up in 2014 without the party netting at least two congressional seats would make electoral history in the Keystone State.

A Smart Politics review of Pennsylvania election data finds that the lowest percentage of U.S. House seats elected alongside the party of the state’s winning gubernatorial candidate is 36 percent, set in 1890.

Democrats won the governor’s mansion that cycle with Robert Pattison but carried just 10 of 28 congressional seats.

Since the birth of the modern two-party system in 1828, there have been 42 gubernatorial elections conducted in Pennsylvania that coincided with elections to the U.S. House.

Overall, 765 of the 1,177 congressional seats on the ballot in such cycles during this 185-year span were carried by the winning gubernatorial candidate, or an average of 65 percent.

In 32 of these cycles, the party of the victorious gubernatorial candidate carried at least half of the congressional seats – peaking at over 80 percent nine times:

· 1872 (Republicans): 82 percent, 22 of 27 seats (Governor John Hartranft)
· 1894 (Republicans): 93 percent, 28 of 30 seats (Daniel Hastings)
· 1902 (Republicans): 88 percent, 28 of 32 seats (Samuel Pennypacker)
· 1914 (Republicans): 83 percent, 30 of 36 seats (Martin Brumbaugh)
· 1918 (Republicans): 81 percent, 29 of 36 seats (William Sprout)
· 1922 (Republicans): 83 percent, 30 of 36 seats (Gifford Pinchot)
· 1926 (Republicans): 94 percent, 34 of 36 seats (John Fisher)
· 1930 (Republicans): 92 percent, 33 of 36 seats (Giffort Pinchot)
· 1946 (Republicans): 85 percent, 28 of 33 seats (Jim Duff)

Over the last 15 cycles since 1954, the only time a gubernatorial candidate has been elected along with at least 60 percent of his party’s U.S. House seats was in 2010 when Corbett and 12 of 19 Republican U.S. House nominees were victorious (63 percent).

In 10 cycles during the two-party era, less than half of the state’s congressional seats – but no less than 36 percent – came from the party of the elected governor, with seven of these cycles taking place during the last 50 years:

· 1882 (Democrats): 43 percent, 12 of 28 seats (Governor Robert Pattison)
· 1890 (Democrats): 36 percent, 10 of 28 seats (Robert Pattison)
· 1954 (Democrats): 47 percent, 14 of 30 seats (George Leader)
· 1966 (Republicans): 48 percent, 13 of 27 seats (Raymond Shafer)
· 1978 (Republicans): 40 percent, 10 of 25 seats (Dick Thornburgh)
· 1982 (Republicans): 44 percent, 10 of 23 seats (Dick Thornburgh)
· 1990 (Democrats): 48 percent, 11 of 23 seats (Bob Casey)
· 1994 (Republicans): 48 percent, 10 of 21 seats (Tom Ridge)
· 1998 (Republicans): 48 percent, 10 of 21 seats (Tom Ridge)
· 2002 (Democrats): 37 percent, 7 of 19 seats (Ed Rendell)

Democrats currently hold 28 percent of Pennsylvania’s 18 congressional seats (five of 18).

As such, if the Democratic Party does indeed take back the governor’s mansion in 2014, it will have to net two U.S. House seats to avoid setting the record for the weakest gubernatorial coattails in congressional races in Keystone State history.

In order to reach the historical statewide average of 65 percent, Democrats would have the unfathomable task of netting seven seats.

Pennsylvania U.S. House Seats Carried by Party of Winning Gubernatorial Candidate, 1832-2010

Cycle	Winning candidate	Party	US House seats	Total Seats	% Seats
1832	George Wolf	Democrat	14	28	50.0
1838	David Porter	Democrat	17	28	60.7
1844	Francis Shunk	Democrat	12	24	50.0
1848	William Johnston	Whig	13	24	54.2
1854	James Pollock	Whig	16*	24	66.7
1860	Andrew Curtin	Republican	19	25	76.0
1866	John Geary	Republican	18	24	75.0
1872	John Hartranft	Republican	22	27	81.5
1878	Henry Hoyt	Republican	17	27	63.0
1882	Robert Pattison	Democrat	12	28	42.9
1886	James Beaver	Republican	20	28	71.4
1890	Robert Pattison	Democrat	10	28	35.7
1894	Daniel Hastings	Republican	28	30	93.3
1898	William Stone	Republican	20	30	66.7
1902	Samuel Pennypacker	Republican	28	32	87.5
1906	Edwin Stuart	Republican	25	32	78.1
1910	J.K. Tener	Republican	23	32	71.9
1914	Martin Brumbaugh	Republican	30	36	83.3
1918	William Sprout	Republican	29	36	80.6
1922	Gifford Pinchot	Republican	30	36	83.3
1926	John Fisher	Republican	34	36	94.4
1930	Gifford Pinchot	Republican	33	36	91.7
1934	George Earle	Democrat	23	34	67.6
1938	Arthur James	Republican	19	34	55.9
1942	Edward Martin	Republican	19	33	57.6
1946	Jim Duff	Republican	28	33	84.8
1950	John Fine	Republican	20	33	60.6
1954	George Leader	Democrat	14	30	46.7
1958	David Lawrence	Democrat	16	30	53.3
1962	William Scranton	Republican	14	27	51.9
1966	Raymond Shafer	Republican	13	27	48.1
1970	Milton Shapp	Democrat	14	27	51.9
1974	Milton Shapp	Democrat	14	25	56.0
1978	Dick Thornburgh	Republican	15	25	40.0
1982	Dick Thornburgh	Republican	13	23	43.5
1986	Bob Casey, Sr.	Democrat	12	23	52.2
1990	Bob Casey, Sr.	Democrat	11	23	47.8
1994	Tom Ridge	Republican	10	21	47.6
1998	Tom Ridge	Republican	10	21	47.6
2002	Ed Rendell	Democrat	7	19	36.8
2006	Ed Rendell	Democrat	11	19	57.9
2010	Tom Corbett	Republican	12	19	63.2

* Includes coalition of Opposition, Whig, and Republican U.S. Representatives. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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