Will the Vikings Win More Games in Their New Stadium?

NFL teams have made the playoffs more frequently and won more Super Bowls during the last five years in their old stadiums as compared to the first five years in their new facilities

After taking several years to work out a deal with Minnesota lawmakers, the Minnesota Vikings’ stadium troubles manage to linger on – most recently with a lawsuit filed by three Minneapolis residents over the legality of the estimated $450+ million stadium bond sale.

That sale has been delayed and could theoretically push back the scheduled opening of the forthcoming stadium for the 2016 season if legal battles don’t go the team’s way – and quickly.

With the state kicking in just over one-third of the bill and Minneapolis another one-sixth in hospitality taxes, the 2012 deal did not call the teams’ bluff – that the Vikings might look to a different city to host its franchise without public financial support of a new facility.

As the recent lawsuit suggests, the political bickering over the state and city’s role in public stadium financing of sports facilities did not end with the agreement reached in St. Paul nearly two years ago.

But while the new Vikings stadium may end up as a better place to watch a game, will the stadium make the Vikings a better team?

To be sure, new stadiums generate extra buzz in the short-term, usually leading to increased revenue for the franchise.

However, there is little evidence to suggest a new stadium brings more victories – particularly in a league in which teams can go from worst to first in one season (and vice-versa) regardless of their stadium situation.

In fact, Vikings fans may be sorely disappointed once they learn how teams have fared in their new digs over the decades (although perhaps not shocked after the dismal last three years endured by the Minnesota Twins in their new ballpark).

A Smart Politics review of the records of NFL teams during the five years before and after new stadiums were built finds that the new stadium is correlated with an increase of less than one-half of a victory per season, slightly fewer playoff appearances, and fewer Super Bowl victories.

This analysis tallied the winning percentages of the 26 NFL teams during the five years prior to and after opening their current stadium.

(Note: That tally includes the Chicago Bears, whose Soldier Field was substantially renovated for a 2003 reopening. Excluded from analysis are three teams that have played in only one stadium (Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, St. Louis Rams) plus three expansion or relocated teams (Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Oilers/Titans) whose new stadiums were completed within two years after establishing themselves in their new cities.

During the final five years in their old stadiums, these 26 NFL teams compiled a record of 956 wins, 1,001 losses, and 21 ties, or a winning percentage of .489.

During the first five years in their new stadiums, that record improved only slightly to 1,000 wins, 950 losses, and 17 ties, or a winning percentage of .513.

That amounts to an increase of approximately one-third of a victory per year.

Overall, 12 franchises recorded a lower winning percentage during the first half decade in their new stadium: the Kansas City Chiefs (-.278), Miami Dolphins (-.214), Indianapolis Colts (-.175), Detroit Lions (-.156), Cleveland Browns (-.125), San Francisco 49ers (-.118), Minnesota Vikings (-.081), Denver Broncos (-.075), New York Giants (-.066), Dallas Cowboys (-.063), San Diego Chargers (-.050), and Cincinnati Bengals (-.013).

(Note: The New York Giants and New York Jets have recorded only four seasons in their new facility, MetLife Stadium).

The remaining 16 teams notched a higher winning percentage in the new stadium: Oakland Raiders (+.393), Buffalo Bills (+.236), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+.200), New England Patriots (+.200), Pittsburgh Steelers (+.156), Chicago Bears (+.138), Arizona Cardinals (+.125), Washington Redskins (+.118), Green Bay Packers (+.117), Seattle Seahawks (+.100), Philadelphia Eagles (+.088), New York Jets (+0.066), Atlanta Falcons (+0.59), and New Orleans Saints (+0.38).

As exciting as the NFL action is week-to-week, regular season success, of course, takes a back seat to the big prize – winning the Super Bowl.

As it turns out, more teams have won the Super Bowl playing in the last five years of their old stadium (six: the Chiefs in 1969, Broncos in 1997 & 1998, Patriots in 2001, Colts in 2006, and Giants in 2007) than in the first five years of their new stadium (five: the Buccaneers in 2002, Steelers in 2005, Patriots in 2003 & 2004, and Giants in 2011).

Teams in new stadiums also lost the Super Bowl seven times, compared to just two times in the closing years of their old stadiums.

Overall, teams made the playoffs 47 times during the last five years in their old stadium and 45 times during the first five years of the new one.

Nearly half the league has opened up a new stadium in the 21st Century with the new Vikings facility the 15th new NFL stadium since 2000 including the new San Francisco 49ers facility in Santa Clara opening in 2014.

Of course, to die-hard Vikings fans, it is better to have an NFL franchise in the state – even one that isn’t improved after the new stadium is built – than having no team at all.

For those who are opposed to the public financing of stadiums, it would not matter one iota even if teams did fare noticeably better and brought home more championships in the wake of such new facilities.

And so, the political and legal battles continue…

Winning Percentages of NFL Teams 5 Seasons Before and After the Opening of New Stadiums

Team	Before	W	L	T	%	After	W	L	T	%
New York Giants	2005-09	49	31	0	.613	2010-13*	35	29	0	.547
New York Jets	2005-09	36	44	0	.450	2010-13*	33	31	0	.516
Dallas Cowboys	2004-08	46	34	0	.575	2009-13	41	39	0	.512
Indianapolis Colts	2003-07	63	17	0	.788	2008-12	49	31	0	.613
Arizona Cardinals	2001-05	27	53	0	.338	2006-10	37	43	0	.463
Philadelphia Eagles	1998-02	42	38	0	.525	2003-07	49	31	0	.613
Chicago Bears**	1998-02	32	48	0	.400	2003-07	43	37	0	.538
New England Patriots	1997-01	43	37	0	.538	2002-06	59	21	0	.738
Seattle Seahawks	1997-01	40	40	0	.500	2002-06	48	32	0	.600
Detroit Lions	1997-01	33	47	0	.413	2002-06	22	58	0	.257
Denver Broncos	1996-00	56	24	0	.700	2001-05	50	30	0	.625
Pittsburgh Steelers	1996-00	43	37	0	.538	2001-05	55	24	1	.694
Cincinnati Bengals	1995-99	29	51	0	.363	2000-04	28	52	0	.350
Cleveland Browns	1994-98	36	44	0	.450	1999-03	26	54	0	.325
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1993-97	34	46	0	.425	1998-02	50	30	0	.625
Washington Redskins	1992-96	31	49	0	.388	1997-01	40	39	1	.506
Atlanta Falcons	1987-91	26	53	0	.329	1992-96	31	49	0	.388
Miami Dolphins	1982-86	53	18	0	.746	1987-91	42	37	0	.532
Minnesota Vikings	1977-81	40	37	1	.519	1982-86	32	41	0	.438
New Orleans Saints	1970-74	18	48	4	.286	1975-79	24	50	0	.324
Buffalo Bills	1968-72	13	54	3	.207	1973-77	31	39	0	.443
Kansas City Chiefs	1967-71	49	18	3	.721	1972-76	30	38	2	.443
San Diego Chargers	1962-66	39	26	5	.593	1967-71	36	30	4	.543
Oakland Raiders	1961-65	26	41	3	.393	1966-70	53	13	4	.786
San Francisco 49ers	1955-59	30	29	1	.508	1960-64	26	41	1	.390
Green Bay Packers	1952-56	22	37	1	.375	1957-61	30	31	4	.492
Total		956	1,001	21	.489		1,000	950	17	.513

* Denotes teams that have only played four seasons in their new stadium. ** Solider Field reopened in 2003 after substantial renovations but was not a brand new facility. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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