Will Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin Provide Any Drama in 2014’s Gubernatorial Races?

Gubernatorial elections have been decided by single digits over the last four elections in just four states – three are in the Upper Midwest: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Rhode Island

With just a shade over three and one-half months until Election Day, it is not yet clear how many top of the ticket races will keep political observers on the edge of their seats this November – even in the reliably competitive Upper Midwest.

Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have been accustomed to competitive gubernatorial races in recent years with each of the last four such contests in all three states decided by single digits.

However, at this point in the 2014 cycle, there appears to be only one bona fide competitive race for governor in the tri-state region – Mary Burke vs. Scott Walker in Wisconsin – but even in this contest the challenger has yet to poll ahead of the incumbent.

Iowa’s race – Jack Hatch vs. Terry Branstad – hardly resembles a barnburner at this stage, with the Republican governor well-situated for a double-digit win, while the race in Minnesota has only the potential to be one to watch as the GOP braces for one of its most competitive primaries in history for the right to take on Governor Mark Dayton.

The fact that each of these three neighboring Midwestern states has routinely served up competitive gubernatorial races over the last four elections is quite unusual in recent political history.

Only one other state across the country can make that claim – Rhode Island, which has hosted governor’s races decided by single digits for five consecutive cycles dating back to 1994.

In fact, only five other states have enjoyed streaks of more than one competitive gubernatorial race in a row.

Contests in Maine, Oregon, and Washington have been decided by less than 10 points in three consecutive cycles with elections in Florida and West Virginia decided by single digits during the last two.

Number of Consecutive Gubernatorial Elections Decided by Single Digits

State	Period	# Elections
Rhode Island	1994-2010	5
Iowa	1998-2010	4
Minnesota	1998-2010	4
Wisconsin	2002-2012	4
Maine	2002-2010	3
Oregon	2002-2010	3
Washington	2004-2012	3
Florida	2006-2010	2
West Virginia	2011-2012	2
Connecticut	2010	1
Illinois	2010	1
Indiana	2012	1
Massachusetts	2010	1
Montana	2012	1
New Mexico	2010	1
Ohio	2010	1
Pennsylvania	2010	1
South Carolina	2010	1
Virginia	2013	1

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are also usually considered at or near the top-tier of presidential battleground states, and it has not been common for states to be competitive in races for both executive offices.

For example, top-tier presidential swing states like Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, and Pennsylvania each have had at least two of their last four gubernatorial races decided by 11 or more points.

Overall, the last four races for governor in these six states have been decided by an average of 17.9 points. By comparison, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have had an average victory margin of just 5.7 points.

On the other side of the coin, a handful of reliably blue (Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island) and red (Montana, South Carolina) states in presidential elections have served up exciting gubernatorial races in recent years – decided by single digits in at least three of the last four contests in each, with the average victory margin coming in at just 7.6 points collectively.

Average Victory Margin in Gubernatorial Elections Over Last Four Cycles By State

Rank	State	Period	MoV
1	Minnesota	1998-2010	3.0
2	Illinois	1998-2010	5.5
3	Rhode Island	1998-2010	5.7
4	Wisconsin	2002-2012	5.9
5	Washington	2000-2012	7.1
6	South Carolina	1998-2010	7.2
7	Virginia	2001-2013	7.7
8	Florida	1998-2010	7.9
9	Iowa	1998-2010	8.3
9	North Carolina	2000-2012	8.3
11	Massachusetts	1998-2010	8.8
11	Missouri	2000-2012	8.8
11	Maryland	1998-2010	8.8
14	Montana	2000-2012	10.7
15	Indiana	2000-2012	10.8
16	Georgia	1998-2010	10.9
17	Mississippi	1999-2011	11.4
18	Oregon	1998-2010	11.7
19	Alabama	1998-2010	11.9
20	Hawaii	1998-2010	12.5
21	Ohio	1998-2010	12.7
21	New Jersey	2001-2013	12.7
23	California	2002-2010	13.0
24	Maine	1998-2010	13.8
25	Michigan	1998-2010	15.2
26	Colorado	1998-2010	15.3
27	Pennsylvania	1998-2010	16.3
28	Arizona	1998-2010	16.4
29	Connecticut	1998-2010	17.0
30	Vermont	2006-2012	17.2
31	New Mexico	1998-2010	17.5
32	Oklahoma	1998-2010	17.9
32	Nevada	1998-2010	17.9
34	Arkansas	1998-2010	18.2
35	Texas	1998-2010	19.2
35	Alaska	1998-2010	19.2
37	West Virginia	2004-2012	20.2
38	Kentucky	1999-2011	21.6
39	Idaho	1998-2010	22.0
40	South Dakota	1998-2010	23.7
41	Wyoming	1998-2010	25.0
42	Delaware	2000-2012	25.2
43	Kansas	1998-2010	26.8
43	New York	1998-2010	26.8
45	New Hampshire	2006-2012	27.6
46	Tennessee	1998-2010	28.3
47	Louisiana	1999-2011	30.2
48	North Dakota	2000-2012	33.4
49	Nebraska	1998-2010	36.5
50	Utah	2000-2012	36.9

Note: Table compiled by Smart Politics.

The current four-cycle streaks in these three Upper Midwestern states are among the longest stretches of competitive gubernatorial elections in each state’s history.

Minnesota

Minnesota voters brought the nation the most closely-decided race in the 2010 cycle among the 37 states holding gubernatorial elections, with Mark Dayton beating Tom Emmer by 0.4 points, and leads the nation with its last four races decided by only 3.0 points.

This four-cycle streak ties a Gopher State record for the largest number of consecutive competitive elections for governor – a feat that has happened twice before: from 1886 to 1892 and 1960 to 1970.

The gubernatorial elections of 1886, 1888, 1890, and 1892 were all swept by the GOP, but decided by an average of just 4.3 points:

· 1886: Andrew McGill won by 1.1 points over Democrat Albert Ames
· 1888: William Merriam defeated Eugene Wilson by 9.3 points
· 1890: Merriam won reelection by 1.0 point over Thomas Wilson
· 1892: Knute Nelson won the first of two terms by 5.7 points against Daniel Lawler

The most recent streak took place between 1960 and 1970, with the four contests decided by an average of 3.9 points:

· 1960: Republican Elmer Andersen defeated three-term incumbent Orville Freeman by 1.5 points
· 1962: Democrat Karl Rolvaag beat Andersen by 91 votes after a prolonged statewide recount
· 1966: Republican Harold LeVander beat Rolvaag by 5.7 points
· 1970: Democrat Wendell Anderson defeated Douglas Head by 8.5 points in an open seat race

Overall, 38 of Minnesota’s 65 gubernatorial elections were decided by single digits, or 58.5 percent.

Wisconsin

At four in a row, Wisconsin is currently tied for its third longest streak of competitive gubernatorial elections in state history with the last four races decided by an average of 5.9 points in 2002 (3.7 points), 2006 (7.4 points), 2010 (5.8 points), and the recall election of 2012 (6.8 points).

Impressive, but not quite a match for the Badger State’s remarkable nine-cycle streak taking place from 1954 through 1970, with Republicans winning five contests and Democrats claiming four.

Five of these races were decided by less than four points: victories by Republican Walter Kohler, Jr. in 1954 (3.1 points), Republican Vernon Thomson in 1956 (3.9 points), Democrat Gaylord Nelson in 1960 (3.2 points), Democrat John Reynolds in 1962 (1.0 points), and Republican Warren Knowles in 1964 (1.2 points).

Wisconsin also saw its gubernatorial elections decided by single-digits six times in a row from 1881 to 1892 and four times in a row from 1855 to 1861 as well as 1865 to 1871.

All signs are the Badger State will extend its streak to five in 2014, as presumptive Democratic nominee Mary Burke has been within striking distance of incumbent Scott Walker in most polls conducted within the past year.

Since statehood, 37 of 73 elections for governor have been decided by single digits, or 50.7 percent.

Iowa

In Iowa, the four-cycle streak of single-digit gubernatorial victory margins is the fifth longest in state history coming in with an average victory margin of 8.3 points in 1998 (5.8 points), 2002 (8.2 points), 2006 (9.6 points), and 2010 (9.6 points).

The Hawkeye State saw streaks of six straight competitive races from 1883 to 1893 and 1952 to 1962 and five in a row from 1846 to 1859 and 1932 to 1940.

The 2014 contest between Republican incumbent Terry Branstad and Democratic challenger Jack Hatch has not yet lived up to the billing of the state’s recent electoral history.

Branstad has enjoyed double-digit or near double-digit leads in all non-partisan polls released over the past year.

Overall, 36 of 71 elections in Iowa since statehood have had margins of victory of less than 10 points, or 50.7 percent.

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