Could Gary Herbert Lose in 2016?

It has been 100 years since the last elected governor from the Beehive State lost a renomination bid

He has served just five-plus years in office, but Utah Governor Gary Herbert has a pathway to become his state’s second longest-serving governor…if all goes as planned in the 2016 election cycle.

Herbert, who announced he would seek a third term in 2016 last year, does not yet have a Democratic opponent, but his chief concern is whether or not a fellow Republican – namely Overstock.com executive Jonathan Johnson – will challenge him for the GOP nomination.

Herbert enjoys sky-high ratings in the Beehive State and would seemingly be considered a strong favorite against any Republican challenger – even with the state’s convention nomination format that requires the backing of 60 percent of delegates to avoid a primary runoff between the top two candidates.

In fact, it has been 100 years since the last elected governor of either party lost a renomination bid – Republican William Spry who sought a third term in 1916.

The big difference is that Herbert has not alienated his party on a lightning rod issue like Spry did when he opposed prohibition in his second term.

Overall, Utah governors have a 15-4 record in reelection bids.

In addition to Spry, Republican Charles Mabey lost the 1924 general election by six points to George Dern, Democrat Herbert Maw lost the 1948 general election by 10 points to Brack Lee, and Olene Walker, who succeeded Michael Leavitt after his resignation in 2003, placed a distant fourth at the 2004 GOP nominating convention (Jon Huntsman defeated Nolan Karras in the subsequent primary).

If victorious in 2016, Herbert would become the third governor in state history to win three terms joining Leavitt and Democrat Cal Rampton. Utah is one of 14 states that does not have any gubernatorial term limits on the books.

If Herbert wins the Republican nomination and is reelected, he will be on track to become Utah’s second longest-serving governor.

As of Thursday, Herbert currently ranks a distant #12 with 5 years, 10 months, 1 day of service, but would climb ten spots to #2 if he served out the entirety of his prospective third term.

Herbert would then have logged 11 years, 4 months, 25 days as governor – approximately seven months shy of the aforementioned Rampton, Utah’s all-time leader at 12 years from 1965 to 1977.

Leavitt (1993-2003) is currently second at 10 years, 10 months, two days with the state’s first governor, GOPer Heber Wells (1896-1905), in third at 8 years, 11 months, 28 days.

Utah Democrats are currently suffering through the party’s second-longest gubernatorial drought in the nation – losing the last nine contests since 1984 – behind only South Dakota where Democrats have lost 10 in a row since 1978.

Overall, Republicans have served as governor in Utah for 71 years, 5 months, 19 days while Democrats have served for 48 years, 11 days.

Longest-Serving Statehood Governors in Utah History

* Through June 11, 2015. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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