Will the House Follow Suit?

If Democrats face Donald Trump or Ted Cruz in November, the party is confident a victory at the top of the ticket would not only result in a good chance at taking back the U.S. Senate but also making notable gains in the House of Representatives. Since the U.S. House reached 435 members in the 1912 cycle, partisan gains in the chamber have mirrored the winner of the presidential race in 20 of 26 cycles – all but 1916 (+19 GOP), 1956 (+2 DEM), 1960 (+22 GOP), 1988 (+2 DEM), 1992 (+9 GOP), and 2000 (+1 DEM). In 14 of the remaining 20 cycles, gains in the House recorded by the winning presidential nominee’s party reached double digits, although such large gains have become rarer in recent presidential cycles (occurring in 1912, 1920, 1924, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1944, 1948, 1952, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 2008). Chatter that either party could make large gains in 2016 is muted in part due to the large number of gerrymandered seats held by both parties.