Northam North of 50?
Democrat Ralph Northam has held a fairly consistent lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in polling of Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial race since the early summer, but few surveys have shown that the sitting lieutenant governor has persuaded a majority of voters over to his side. Libertarian nominee and Mechanicsville attorney Cliff Hyra may not draw as much support as Robert Sarvis did during his surprising 2013 third party campaign (winning 6.5 percent), but could win enough votes to prevent the state from having a majority winner for just the third time in gubernatorial electoral history. The only plurality victories across the state’s 40 direct elections for governor since statehood were those recorded by Democrats Mills Godwin in 1965 (with 47.9 percent) and Terry McAuliffe last cycle (47.8 percent).
If Northam fails to land “North of 50” the shortfall perhaps ought to be pointed at a) the recently defeated nominee of his party, who is bent on blaming everyone but herself for the second lowest Electoral College tally for the party since the 1987-88 cycle, and b) the even more recently deposed producer, who contributed more than a “fistful of dollars” to many a national Democrat, even as he engaged in “deplorable” behaviour towards women and young girls seeking work in show business for more than 2 decades. Or is it that the Libertarians are now competing with the Ds for the anti-Trumpist vote (historically the Libs have split the anti-DEM vote with the pre-trump-era Republicans)?