Jon Tester Hopes to Tap Montana’s Rich History of Split-Ticket Voting
No other state has backed presidential and U.S. Senate nominees from different parties in a majority of election cycles over the last 100+ years
With Democrats clinging to hold their advantage in the U.S. Senate, one of many key seats the party can ill afford to lose in November is Montana’s Class I seat held by Jon Tester.
Tester has won the seat by less than four points in each of his first three terms including a 3.7-point victory over former U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg in 2012 while Mitt Romney carried the state for the GOP by 13.7 points at the top of the ticket.
Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win Montana’s Electoral College votes for the 14th time out of 15 cycles since 1968 but the race of Tester against former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy is expected to be quite close.
Tester is banking on Montana’s tops-in-the-nation history of splitting its vote for president and U.S. Senator to eke out yet another win in the otherwise Republican-controlled state.
Since its first voter preference election for the U.S. Senate in 1912, Montanans have cast their ballots for different political parties for president and U.S. Senator in 10 of 19 elections (52.6 percent).
No other state has done so in a majority of elections with North Dakota next at 50 percent (nine of 18).
Four other states have split their ticket for these offices in at least 40 percent of these cycles:
- Rhode Island: Eight of 18 (44.4 percent)
- Oregon: Nine of 21 (42.9 percent)
- Louisiana: Eight of 19 (42.1 percent)
- Maine: Eight of 19 (42.1 percent)
- Missouri: Eight of 19 (42.1 percent)
- Minnesota: Eight of 20 (40.0 percent)
In Montana’s case, all 10 of the instances of split-ticket voting saw the electorate back the Republican nominee for president and the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate:
- 1924: President Calvin Coolidge and U.S. Senator Thomas Walsh
- 1928: Herbert Hoover and U.S. Senator Burton Wheeler
- 1952: Dwight Eisenhower and U.S. Representative Mike Mansfield
- 1960: Vice President Richard Nixon and former U.S. Representative Lee Metcalf
- 1972: President Richard Nixon and U.S. Senator Metcalf
- 1976: President Gerald Ford and U.S. Representative Doc Melcher
- 1984: President Ronald Reagan and U.S. Senator Max Baucus
- 1996: U.S. Senator Bob Dole and Senator Baucus
- 2008: U.S. Senator John McCain and Senator Baucus
- 2012: Mitt Romney and U.S. Senator Jon Tester
Kansas is the only state never to split its ticket backing a Republican for president and a Democrat for U.S. Senator.
Meanwhile, 18 states have never done the reverse – voting for Democratic presidential and Republican U.S. Senatorial nominees: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
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Like I said in a past article, Sabato’s crystal ball dove into crossover voting history in the post war era back in February that I think most readers here would find interesting. Among other things, they note how senate democrats normally benefitted from crossover voting and the # of crossovers was in double digits from 1952-2000, except for 1964 which was also 1 of the few times senate republicans actually benefitted.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-postwar-history-of-senate-presidential-ticket-splitting-part-one/
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-postwar-history-of-senate-presidential-ticket-splitting-part-two/
I believe that 1936 was the only time in which KS split the vote. WY and UT only split there votes in 1928. I would also say that senate democrats benefitted in pre war era with certain exceptions.
1 thing you’ll hear from me a lot in the coming months if I post a comment is that by November 5th, get all of your family, friends, neighbors, co-workers and anybody else that you can reach out to VOTE like your lives depend on it.
– This is the most recent article pertaining to the ‘survival tales’ of Jon Tester on perilous terrain (18 of March 2011; 21 of 11 2012; 30 of May 2018; 3 of July 2018 have preceded this). Depending on the result, this one may be the last of the recurrent series spanning 10+ years.
– First-term incumbent Kevin Cramer of ND, the first Republican at-large US representative to defeat an incumbent Democratic – in his case, a Democratic Non-Partisan League – US senator, is poised to secure a second term, thus diverging a tad more slightly from its western neighbor in terms of split-ticket senate-presidential voting.
– The Aloha State (along with The Sunflower State) has never voted in a Democrat to the US senate and a Republican to the presidency (it has voted the other way once – in 1964, with the Hiram Fong – LBJ split; no Senate election was held when the archipelago voted R in 1972 and 1984).
Sabato’s crystal ball actually did a post war era analysis of crossover voting back in February:
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-postwar-history-of-senate-presidential-ticket-splitting-part-one/
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-postwar-history-of-senate-presidential-ticket-splitting-part-two/
To all readers: by November 5th, get all of your family friends, neighbors, co-workers and anybody else that you can reach out to VOTE like your lives depend on it.
[…] You see, Montana has done something prior to now that only a few people do today – Ticket splittingwhen an individual votes for candidates from opposing parties in an election. It's hard to assume in a time of deep polarization, but out here within the Rocky Mountains and Northern Plains, voters would consistently vote for a Republican for president and infrequently for the Legislature as well. but in addition for the Democrat Jon Tester. […]
[…] See, Montana has a history of doing something very few people do these days – ticket splitting, when a person votes in an election for candidates from opposing parties. In a time of deep polarization, it is hard to imagine, but out here in the Rocky Mountains and the northern plains, voters would consistently vote for a Republican for president and often for the Legislature, but also for Democrat Jon Tester. […]