The Nine Lives of Don Bacon
Nebraska’s 2nd CD U.S. Representative has eked out each of his four general election wins by less than five points – most in state history
For the fourth consecutive election cycle, Democrats are targeting the 2nd CD U.S. House seat held by Nebraska Republican Don Bacon.
The Omaha-based purple district, which Joe Biden carried in 2020, has been highly competitive since new maps were drawn in 2012, with each of the six races since decided by less than five points and partisan control flipping twice (in 2014 to state legislator Brad Ashford and in 2016 to Bacon).
Bacon unseated Ashford by 1.2 points eight years ago and has narrowly held on to his seat for the last three cycles in 2018 (2.0 points), 2020 (4.6 points), and 2022 (2.7 points).
In 2024, Bacon will face a rematch against 2022 Democratic nominee and former state legislator Tony Vargas.
Bacon, considered to be one of the most moderate Republicans in the nation’s lower legislative chamber, already survived his most competitive primary challenge this May – a 23.9-point victory against Nebraska GOP Party endorsed businessman Dan Frei.
Should Rep. Bacon stave off Vargas’ challenge once again, he may just add to his history-setting state record of nail-biting victories.
Smart Politics reviewed the nearly 400 U.S. House elections in Nebraska history and found that almost one in five (73 of 383, 19.1 percent) have been very competitive affairs – decided by less than five percentage points.
Don Bacon owns four of these 73 victories – more than any U.S. Representative in Nebraska history – and has done so in just four election cycles.
Four other Nebraskans have notched three wins by such a narrow margin – all more than a century ago:
- Populist William Stark, 4th CD: Stark came in a distant second place to GOP incumbent Eugene Hainer as a Populist nominee in 1894’s 4th CD race. He then also received the Democratic nomination in 1896 to run under the Fusion banner and defeated Hainer by 4.1 points. Stark would win two more terms in 1898 (by 1.4 points) and 1900 (by 1.4 points) before losing his seat to former Jefferson County Attorney Edmund Hinshaw in 1902.
- Republican David Mercer, 2nd CD: Mercer was elected five times to the U.S. House including close calls in 1892 (4.3 points), 1898 (4.0 points), and 1900 (4.7 points) before getting unseated in a 1902 rematch with 1898 Fusion nominee Gilbert Hitchcock.
- Democrat John Maguire, 1st CD: Maguire, an attorney from Lincoln, was the first Nebraskan to win three terms to the U.S. House as a stand-alone Democratic nominee and did so by single digits each time: by 2.4 points in 1908, 2.3 points in 1910, and 4.9 points in 2012. Maguire then lost his seat in 1914 by a point to Falls City attorney Charles Reavis as well as the rematch in 1916.
- Democrat Ashton Shallenberger, 5th CD: Shallenberger won his first of seven nonconsecutive terms in 1900 by 1.1 points as a Fusion (Populist/Democratic) candidate. After serving two years as Governor (1909-1911), Shallenberger won a second term to the U.S. House by 0.5 points in 1914 and later a third term in 1922 by 2.5 points. He would also win election by more comfortable margins in 1916, 1926, 1930, and to the 4th CD in 1932. Shallenberger also lost the general elections of 1902, 1918, and 1928 as an incumbent.
Nine other Nebraska U.S. Representatives scored victories by fewer than five points twice with 39 doing so one time each.
Since 1992, nine elections have been decided by less than five points in Nebraska U.S. House races – all in the 2nd CD.
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The 2022 redraw made the Omaha-anchored constituency markedly more Republican-leaning than the 2012~2020 iteration yet Donald John Bacon had gone from a 4.6% winner in ’20 to a 2.7% winner in ’22 – equivalent of as much as a 5% decline. Thus, the “nine lives” phrase seems overly optimistic, IMHO (long-term trend suggests the retired USAF one-star flag officer will not win five more elections – unless he were to move to a different district or make a bid for US Senate).
It has been pointed out that the House and presidential battlegrounds are particularly misaligned this historic (‘Blasian’ versus ‘Felon’) campaign cycle. However, due to an almost-unique quirk in state election statute, this *island of lavender in a sea of crimson* is one of the stunningly few venues where both major parties on both levels are feverishly contesting.
1 thing that I just thought about this years election after Biden got out of the race, with the exception of 1964 where the candidates were LBJ/Hubert Humphrey vs Barry Goldwater/William Miller, this year is the 1st time since 1948 without a Nixon (1952, 1956, 1960, 1968, 1972), Dole (1976, 1996), Bush (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004), Clinton (1992, 1996, 2016) or Biden (2008, 2012, 2020) on the ticket.
True; Unless, say, Naomi Biden or another Bush family member were to try for national politics, this cycle marks a permanent end of an Era.
The most recent election without a sitting or former US senator on a major party ticket is…1936; prior to the adoption of Direct Elections, per the 17th Amendment, vice presidential or presidential nominees have tended to be drawn from the state governors, the federal cabinet, or retired generals from the US Army.
David Henry Mercer eventually lost to future Democratic US Senator and founder of the Omaha World Herald broadsheet Gilbert Monell Hitchcock in *1902*.
Thanks for catching that detail/omission – updated now above.
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