How Many States Will Have Plurality Presidential Winners in 2024?
With eight candidate choices on the ballot, Wisconsin and Michigan might have the greatest chance to produce plurality victors this November
There are two variables that determine whether a presidential nominee will win a state without majority support from the voting electorate: the competitiveness of the race and the number and quality of alternative third party and independent options on the ballot.
Both variables, of course, need not be present to produce a plurality winner.
For example, the 2016 election in Utah was not competitive – Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 17.9 points – but Trump won only 45.1 percent of the vote because a strong (home state) independent, Evan McMullin, received 21.3 percent.
Additionally, there was no notable support for third party or independent candidates in, say, Kentucky’s 1952 presidential contest, but Democrat Adlai Stevenson was held under 50 percent (49.9) simply because the electorate was so closely divided – Dwight Eisenhower received just 600 fewer votes (49.8 percent). Three third party nominees from the Prohibition, Socialist Labor, and Progressive parties only amassed less than a quarter of a percentage point – fewer than 2,400 votes out of more than 993,000 cast.
The strongest non-major party bid during the 2024 cycle was launched by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who ended his independent campaign in late August but will still appear on the ballot in 32 states plus the District of Columbia.
Kennedy’s support will be diminished to an extent due to his withdrawal from the race and he achieved ballot access in just two of the seven most tightly contested states: Michigan and Wisconsin.
Both of these Midwestern states will have a total of six third party and independent options from which voters can choose.
On the ballot in both states are independent Cornel West, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Libertarian Chase Oliver, and the Constitution Party’s Randall Terry. Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) will also be on the ballot in Wisconsin with Joe Kishore (Socialist Equality Party) appearing on the Michigan ballot.
Of the five remaining most competitive states, only one will have more than two non-major party options in the presidential race – North Carolina with four: West, Stein, Oliver, and Terry.
Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania residents will have the option to vote for Stein and Oliver while Nevadans can choose from Oliver and Independent American nominee Joel Skousen. [Nevadans also have the “None of these candidates” option which will likely be the choice for between 1 in 200 and 1 in 50 residents].
In 2020, only four states hosted plurality winners – with Joe Biden victorious in Arizona (49.2 percent), Georgia (49.5), and Wisconsin (49.5) and Trump in North Carolina (49.9).
That is a stark drop from the 2016 cycle in which nominees carried 14 states without a majority (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Utah, Virginia, and Wisconsin) – buoyed in large part by Libertarian Gary Johnson’s strong showing.
Wisconsin is the all-time leader in producing plurality-winning candidates in presidential races, doing so in 14 of 44 cycles since statehood, or 31.8 percent of the time. Four of those have occurred during the 21st Century (2000, 2004, 2016, 2020).
Six other states have hosted plurality winners in at least a quarter of their presidential elections – all in the Midwestern or Western regions: Ohio (28.6 percent), California (27.9 percent), Oregon (26.8 percent), Indiana (26.5 percent), Michigan (25.5 percent), and New Mexico (25.0 percent).
Florida (2000, 2012, 2016), New Mexico (2000, 2004, 2016), and North Carolina (2008, 2016, 2020) have hosted three plurality winners this century with Iowa (2000, 2004), Maine (2000, 2016), Minnesota (2000, 2016), Nevada (2000, 2016), and New Hampshire (2000, 2016) with two each.
The state with the longest plurality-winning presidential candidate drought is Arkansas with Ronald Reagan last doing so in 1980 when he narrowly defeated President Jimmy Carter with 48.1 percent.
New York is the only state that will give voters two choices for president in the 2024 election and, according to an analysis by Ballot Access News, is just the second state to offer such a limited number of candidate choices to its residences since the 1988 cycle (Oklahoma in 2004, 2008, and 2012).
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Fun fact: Arkansas has the longest plurality-winning drought because *every other state* was won by plurality in 1992, when Ross Perot took 19% of the vote nationally. Bill Clinton won his home state Arkansas with 53.2% to George H. W. Bush’s 35.5% and Perot’s 10.4%. Clinton’s next-largest wins were Maryland with 49.8% and New York with 49.7%. Bush won Mississippi with 49.7% [and also Nebraska’s 3rd district with 49.7%].
The state where Clinton received the lowest share of the vote and still won was Nevada: 37.4% to Bush’s 34.7%. For Bush, it was Arizona: 38.5% to Clinton’s 36.5%. Neither of these is the record, however. That distinction is held by Woodrow Wilson, who in 1912 won Idaho with 32.1%; incumbent president William Howard Taft got 31.0%, former president Teddy Roosevelt got 24.1%, and Eugene Debs got 11.3%.
– (Per Wikipedia) Florida 2012:
D: 4,237756 / *50.01%*
R: 4,163447 / 49.13%
For this cycle, does the Sunshine State have only two candidates listed on its presidential ballot? (I am surmising that it permits write-in votes like nearly all other states; outside of the “7” – NE-02 seems to be a lost cause for the R/MAGA ticket this time – the newish legal home of “Diaper Don” seems most likely to result in no one garnering an outright majority, not even 50.0% to 50.999%.
– If the D ticket wins *NC, GA, and MI* (provided no changes from elsewhere) then it WINS outright, regardless of the expected lenghty delay in ballot tabulation in PA.
– Plurality for ’24: Badger and Copper (I am much too skittish to predict that they will be the only ones – just the most likely).
Florida 2012 was actually Obama 49.90 and Romney 49.03. In 2024, Florida will have seven candidates on the ballot.
Alright, thanks.
{ Into the Homestretch! }
– Noted Silver State journalist John Ralston predicts VP Harris will carry NV, with a very slim plurality (Reid Machine > Musk Moolah). That would make intuitive sense; the most recent D nominee who won the election while losing the state was in 1976, when neither the nominee nor the party had demonstrated sufficient appeal across the West.
– The most recent election in which the R ticket won without NC was in 1956. Likewise the most recent election in which the D ticket won without MI was in 1976. While the Keystone State may well turn out to be the “tipping point” state or “most narrowly decided” state (or both), GA, MI, and NC seem more likely to finish their vote-counting much earlier, likely providing early indicators as to which ticket will win (e.g. GA seems a ‘must win’ for the Republicans while the Democrats could still win without it; reverse scenario for PA).