Just four states have seen one party gain ground over each of the last three election cycles

Although there is some support for the narrative that red states are getting redder and blue states are getting bluer, this has generally not held true across presidential elections over the last generation.

Since the 2008 cycle, only four states have continued to see an uninterrupted, growing partisan advantage in every presidential race.

The trend in each of these four states has favored the GOP.

Following the election of Barack Obama in 2008, only Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada have seen a constant, if slight, partisan shift in every subsequent election.

Arkansas, in fact, owns the nation’s longest such active streak, with Republicans making gains in every cycle following Bill Clinton’s home state victory by 17.7 points in 1992:

  • 1996: Clinton won by 16.9 points
  • 2000: George W. Bush (+5.4)
  • 2004: Bush (+9.8)
  • 2008: John McCain (+19.9)
  • 2012: Mitt Romney (+23.7)
  • 2016: Donald Trump (+26.9)
  • 2020: Trump (+27.6)

Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada have also each seen Republican presidential nominees make gains across the last three elections subsequent to the 2008 cycle.

Obama’s 2.8-point win in Florida in 2008 was followed by a 0.9-point victory in 2012 and then Trump wins by 1.2 and 3.4 points in 2016 and 2020 respectively.

Democratic victories in Hawaii have declined after peaking at 45.3 points in 2008 to 42.7 points in 2012, 32.2 points by Hillary Clinton in 2016, and 29.5 points by Joe Biden in 2020.

Similarly, Democrats have carried Nevada by slimmer margins: 12.5 points in 2008, 6.7 points in 2012, 2.42 points in 2016, and 2.39 points in 2020.

With the possible exception of Hawaii, it would not be surprising to see the trend toward greater support for GOP presidential nominees continue this cycle in Arkansas, Florida, and Nevada.

On the Democratic side, the largest number of consecutive cycles with increased partisan gains sits at just two – a feat accomplished in eight states.

Democrats have increased their margins of victory in three states since 2012:

  • Massachusetts: From a 23.1-point victory in 2012 to 27.3 points in 2016 and 33.5 points in 2020
  • Virginia: Wins of 3.9 points in 2012, 5.3 points in 2016, and 10.1 points in 2020
  • Washington: Wins of 14.9 points in 2012, 15.8 points in 2016, and 19.2 points in 2020

Democratic nominees have also improved their standing over the last two cycles in these five states:

  • Arizona: A 9.0-point defeat in 2012, a loss by 3.6 points in 2016, and a victory by 0.3 points in 2020
  • Georgia: A 7.8-point defeat in 2012, a loss by 5.2 points in 2016, and a win by 0.2 points in 2020
  • Idaho: Losses by 31.9 points in 2012, 31.8 points in 2016, and 30.7 points in 2020
  • Kansas: Losses by 21.7 points in 2012, 21.0 points in 2016, and 14.6 points in 2020
  • Texas: Losses by 15.8 points in 2012, 9.1 points in 2016, and 5.6 points in 2020

The aforementioned Democratic momentum is not likely to continue in Massachusetts and Virginia this November. However, the state that could see the biggest jump for the Democrats among these eight listed above is Kansas – even though it has perhaps been the most reliably Republican state in federal elections over the last century.

Of the 20 states that have backed a GOP presidential nominee in every cycle since 2008, Kansas is one of only two states – along with neighboring Nebraska – to see Democratic nominees make cycle-to-cycle gains of more than five percentage points from 2016 to 2020 (6.4 points in Kansas, 6.6 points in Nebraska).

Moreover, Kansans have elected a Democratic governor in two consecutive cycles and nearly won the office of attorney general in 2022. [In August 2022, Kansas voters also rejected a state constitutional amendment that would remove abortion access protections].

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Posted in Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Nevada, Presidency and tagged ,

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