Will Minnesota Host a Rare Gubernatorial Rematch in 2026?
A Jensen vs. Walz general election would mark just the fourth rematch for the office in state history
A new report at the Minnesota Star Tribune not only amplified the notion that Minnesota DFL Governor Tim Walz is considering a third term but also that his 2022 challenger, physician and former Republican State Senator Scott Jensen, is also strongly mulling over another bid.
Another Walz campaign would make him the first Minnesota governor to seek a third consecutive term since DFLer Rudy Perpich in 1990, who came up 3.3 points short of that goal to Auditor Arne Carlson.
Jensen, meanwhile, would follow in a long line of failed candidates to seek a return to the gubernatorial ballot including 2014 and 2018 GOP nominee Jeff Johnson.
A Jensen vs. Walz rematch would be the fourth time Minnesotans were given the choice of the same two major party gubernatorial nominees since statehood.
The first such rematch took place in 1934 – back when there were three major parties in the state.
In that cycle, Farmer-Labor Governor Floyd Olson faced Democratic nominee John Regan for a second straight cycle.
In 1932, Olson defeated former Republican Hennepin County Sheriff Earle Brown by 18.3 points with Regan, a Mankato resident and State Representative, placing a distant third 34.1 points back.
In 1934, Olson was elected to a third term with a 6.9-point win over Austin attorney Martin Nelson with Regan 27.8 points behind in third place once again.
Less than a decade would pass before the next gubernatorial rematch – this time between GOP Governor Harold Stassen and former Farmer-Labor Governor Hjalmar Petersen.
Petersen has previously served as State Representative from Askov (1931-1935) and Lieutenant Governor (1935-1936) and ascended into the governorship following the death of Floyd Olson during the summer of 1936.
Petersen had already won the Farmer-Labor primary for a seat on the Railroad & Warehouse Commission in June of that year and was elected to the commission that November.
Petersen narrowly lost his party’s gubernatorial primary in 1938 to Governor Elmer Benson but was easily nominated in 1940. Stassen defeated Petersen by 15.5 points in the 1940 general election.
Two years later, Stassen won the rematch by 13.8 points en route to a third term. [Petersen would eventually return to the Railroad & Warehouse Commission for another dozen years (1955-1967)].
The most recent rematch took place more than 70 years ago – and remains the only success story.
Minneapolis attorney Orville Freeman, a failed DFL nominee for Attorney General in 1950, challenged Governor C. Elmer Anderson in 1952 but fell 11.3 points shy of victory.
Freeman suited up again in 1954 and unseated Governor Anderson by 5.9 points in the first of three two-year terms.
It should be noted that Walz was renominated in 2022 by a 93.1-point margin over perennial candidate Ole Savior – the second largest victory margin in a contested major party gubernatorial primary in state history and best ever showing by a Democrat.
For his part, Jensen’s 82.7-point primary win was the largest in a contested GOP primary for governor since Harold LeVander won by 95.9 points in 1966 and tied for third best in party history.
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– Perpich himself was a *failed first-time candidate* – in 1978 – only to return to the 1982 gubernatorial ballot, and had gone on to win in that banner Democratic/DFL year.
– Whatever his prospects for the ’28 cycle, Governor Walz seems likely to win a moderately rare *third straight 4-year* term on his home turf. And unlike during the prior campaign (which was of regular duration for a vice presidential nominee anyway) he would assuredly make himself more accessible to both the legacy and “new” media (as well as becoming a much more vocal and visible opposition figure to the fascistic Musk & Trump regime). The more intriguing question would be, will other Middle West states, which traditionally have tilted against the party in presidential power (the Democrats under ‘Cleveland 2.0’ suffered massive losses in 1894, both nationally and regionally) unreservedly vote against the in-party? (Democratic hold in the KS governor? Democratic gain in NE US senate seat?)
What is the likelihood that both GUV Walz and AG Ellison make a bid for the just opened-up seat of US Senator Smith – to say nothing of all the other statewide officers?
(My surmise is that LTGUV Flanagan, apparently on frosty terms with Walz and has no line responsibility to speak of, seems the most likely of them to make a bid.)
One could infer that Flanagan’s unofficial entrance into the 2026 U.S. Senate race is a sign she expects Walz to run for a third term as governor. Depending on how the next 20 months go for Trump and the GOP, an established Republican figure like Tom Emmer could be salivating at the thought that Flanagan, Ellison, or Omar might represent the DFL ticket in that contest as many party faithful are seemingly hoping is the case.