Democrats have picked off just one GOP U.S. House seat out of 116 elections over the last half century

Tennessee Democratic Party logoIn between election cycles it can be tempting to use special elections to measure the pulse of the political environment. In 2025, Democrats have pointed to many ‘over-performances’ by their nominees vis-à-vis the 2024 general election in several congressional and state legislative special elections (as tracked here by The Downballot).

On Tuesday, primaries were held in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to select nominees for a December 2nd special election – 14 months after Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. Former state Department of General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps and State Representative Aftyn Behn are the GOP and Democratic nominees respectively.

While few partisans have come out and predicted a Democratic victory in the decidedly red district, there is anticipation, following the dozens of specials conducted across the country during the year, that Democrats could close the gap enough to make the election competitive in a small turnout contest.

However, an outright flipping of TN-07 would be a monumental task and achievement for the party – and also extremely unusual in modern Tennessee electoral history.

Over the last 50 years, Republican-held Tennessee U.S. House seats have been on a general or special election ballot 116 times through the 2024 cycle – and Democrats have flipped a seat just once. [By comparison, Democrats have failed to field a nominee in 16 of these 116 contests, 13.8 percent].

In 2002, four-term 4th CD U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary ran for governor and Democratic State Senator Lincoln Davis carried the open district by 5.6 points over four-term Tullahoma Alderman Janice Bowling.

Across the remaining 115 elections during this span, Democrats have come within single-digits of flipping a seat in only one other contest. Following redistricting in 1982, Memphis business owner Don Sundquist narrowly held the Republican 7th CD with a 1.0-point win over former Public Service Commissioner Bob Clement.

Democrats came within all of 20 points of winning a Republican U.S. House seat in just six of the remaining 114 elections:

  • 1976 (TN-01): 16.8 points
  • 1988 (TN-02): 12.4 points
  • 1996 (TN-03): 13.8 points
  • 1996 (TN-04): 16.7 points
  • 2012 (TN-04): 11.6 points
  • 2024 (TN-05): 17.4 points

Going back a full century to the 1924 cycle, Democrats have flipped just three of 185 GOP-held Tennessee U.S. House seats (1.6 percent).

The only other two seats to flip during this 100-year span came during the 1974 post-Watergate Democratic tsunami. Two-term Rep. LaMar Baker lost the 2nd CD by 5.3 points to Marilyn Lloyd (widow of the Democratic Party’s nominee who was killed in a plane crash) and four-term Rep. Dan Kuykendall narrowly lost the 8th CD by 0.5 points to State Rep. Harold Ford, Sr.

Tennessee owns the longest streak in the South and one of the longest streaks in the nation of sending at least one Republican to the U.S. House of Representatives – doing so continuously since the 40th Congress in 1867. Only nine states have had continuous GOP representation in their U.S. House delegations for a longer period: Illinois (1855), Michigan (1855), Pennsylvania (1855), Iowa (1857), New Jersey (1857), New York (1857), Ohio (1857), Kansas (1859), and Minnesota (1859).

Democrats currently hold just one U.S. House seat in Tennessee for the first time since the end of the 41st Congress in March 1871.

Follow Smart Politics on X.

Posted in Tennessee, U.S. House and tagged ,

Leave a Comment