Putting a Bow on the 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate Contest (A Historical Analysis)

With Governor Tim Pawlenty and Secretary of State Mark Ritchie signing the election certificate for the U.S. Senate seat on Tuesday evening, the 2008 Election is, after a 238-day wait, at last in the books.

The 2008 U.S. Senate Election is noteworthy, of course, for its historic narrow margin of victory and for setting a Gopher State record for the longest period with only one U.S. Senator.

But there are other interesting statistical findings from the election-that-would-never-end.

First, the 42.0 percent of the vote won by Al Franken marks the second lowest percentage tallied by a winner in a Minnesota U.S. Senate race out of the 37 general and special elections held since popular vote elections were introduced in the Gopher State in 1912.

Only Republican Thomas D. Schall, with 37.6 percent of the vote won during his successful 1930 reelection campaign, has headed to the nation’s capitol with a lower percentage of the statewide vote.

Since the DFL merger in 1944, the previous low-water mark for a winning candidate was the 48.8 percent won by Mark Dayton in 2000 in his defeat of 1-term GOP incumbent Rod Grams.

Overall, 11 of Minnesota’s 37 Senate races have been won by just a plurality of the vote, although only 4 since the DFL merger: 1916 (Frank B. Kellogg), 1922 (Henrik Shipstead), 1924 (Thomas D. Schall), 1930 (Schall), 1934 (Shipstead), 1936 (Guy V. Howard, in a special election), 1942 (Jospeh H. Ball), 1994 (Rod Grams), 2000 (Mark Dayton), 2002 (Coleman), and 2008 (Franken).

Largest Percentage of the Vote Received by Victorious Minnesota U.S. Senate Candidates, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1976	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	67.5
2	1928	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	65.4
3	1912	Knute Nelson	Republican	62.8
4	1936	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	62.2
5	1978*	Dave Durenberger	Republican	61.5
6	1964	Eugene J. McCarthy	DFL	60.3
7	1918	Knute Nelson	Republican	60.0
8	1948	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	59.8
9	1946	Edward J. Thye	Republican	58.9
10	2006	Amy Klobuchar	DFL	58.1
10	1984	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	58.1
12	1970	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	57.8
13	1960	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	57.5
13	1923*	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	57.5
15	1972	Walter F. Mondale	DFL	56.7
16	1978	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	56.6
16	1952	Edward J. Thye	Republican	56.6
18	1954	Hubert H. Humphrey	DFL	56.4
19	1988	Dave Durenberger	Republican	56.2
20	1942*	Arthur E. Nelson	Republican	56.1
21	1966	Walter F. Mondale	DFL	53.9
22	1940	Henrik Shipstead	Republican	53.0
23	1958	Eugene J. McCarthy	DFL	52.9
24	1982	Dave Durgenberger	Republican	52.6
25	1990	Paul Wellstone	DFL	50.4
26	1996	Paul Wellstone	DFL	50.3
27	1934	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	49.9
28	2002	Norm Coleman	Republican	49.5
29	1994	Rod Grams	Republican	49.1
30	2000	Mark Dayton	DFL	48.8
31	1916	Frank B. Kellogg	Republican	48.6
32	1922	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	47.1
33	1942	Joseph H. Ball	Republican	47.0
34	1924	Thomas D. Schall	Republican	46.5
35	1936*	Guy V. Howard	Republican	42.9
36	2008	Al Franken	DFL	42.0
37	1930	Thomas D. Schall	Republican	37.6

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

However, despite Franken’s historically low vote percentage, there have been a dozen U.S. Senate candidates in Minnesota who have won a larger percentage of the vote than Norm Coleman, and still lost their respective contest.

Coleman’s 42.0 percent of the vote ranks as the 13th highest second place finish in Gopher State history, out of 37 elections conducted since 1912.

Republican Rudy Boschwitz, in his failed 1990 reelection campaign against Paul Wellstone, has the distinction of winning the largest percentage of the vote for a second place candidate (47.8 percent).

In fact, several other second place finishers during the past few decades have earned a larger percentage of the vote than Coleman, such as Walter Mondale in 2002 (47.3 percent), Mark Dayton in 1982 (46.6 percent), Ann Wynia in 1994 (44.1 percent), and Rod Grams in 2000 (43.3 percent).

In other words, while the closeness of the 2008 election made the loss more difficult to swallow for Coleman supporters, there were, proportionally, more disappointed voters in several other Senate contests in Minnesota history.

Largest Percentage of the Vote Received by 2nd Place Candidates in Minnesota U.S. Senate Elections, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1990	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	47.8
2	2002	Walter Mondale	DFL	47.3
3	1982	Mark Dayton	DFL	46.6
3	1958	Edward J. Thye	Republican	46.6
5	1924	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	45.5
6	1966	Robert A. Forsythe	Republican	45.2
7	1994	Ann Wynia	DFL	44.1
8	2000	Rod Grams	Republican	43.3
9	1972	Phil Hansen	Republican	42.9
10	1952	William E. Carlson	DFL	42.5
11	1960	P. Kenneth Peterson	Republican	42.2
12	1954	Val Bjornson	Republican	42.1
13	2008	Norm Coleman	Republican	42.0
14	1970	Clark MacGregor	Republican	41.6
15	1996	Rudy Boschwitz	Republican	41.3
15	1984	Joan Anderson Growe	DFL	41.3
17	1988	Hubert H. Humphrey II	DFL	40.9
18	1978	Wendell Anderson	DFL	40.4
19	1918	Willis G. Calderwood	National	40.0
20	1948	Joseph H. Ball	Republican	39.8
20	1946	Theodore Jorgensen	DFL	39.8
22	1964	Wheelock Whitney	Republican	39.3
23	1923*	Jacob Aall Ottesen Preus	Republican	38.7
24	2006	Mark Kennedy	Republican	37.9
25	1936	Theodore Christianson	Republican	37.8
26	1912	Daniel William Lawler	Democrat	37.2
27	1930	Einar Hoidale	Democrat	36.1
28	1922	Frank B. Kellogg	Republican	35.0
29	1978*	Bob Short	DFL	34.6
30	1928	Arthur E. Nelson	Republican	33.7
31	1916	Daniel W. Lawler	Democrat	30.8
32	1934	Einar Hoidale	Democrat	29.2
33	1936*	N.J. Holmberg	Independent	28.4
34	1942	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	28.2
35	1942*	Al Hansen	Farmer-Labor	26.7
36	1940	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	25.7
37	1976	Jerry Brekke	Republican	25.0

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Of course, the performance of Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley had a major impact on the 2008 Senate election.

Barkley’s 15.2 percent is the largest percentage a third-party candidate has received in a Gopher State Senatorial contest since the DFL merger in 1944. In fact, it more than doubles the previous post-merger record (Barkley’s 7.0 percent on the Reform ticket in 1996).

Overall, however, Barkley’s performance is just the 15th best from a third-party candidate in Minnesota Senate elections. In addition to 10 Farmer-Laborite candidacies, Barkley’s 2008 mark was bested by Willis G. Calderwood twice (40.0 percent in 1918 on the National ticket, and 20.6 percent in 1916 on the Prohibition ticket), Independent candidate N.J. Holmberg in 1936 (28.4 percent), and Independent Progressive candidate Andrew O. Devold in 1936 (20.0 percent).

In total, 31 third-party candidates have earned at least 1 percent of the vote in Minnesota U.S. Senate elections since 1912.

Largest Third-Party Vote Percentage in Minnesota U.S. Senate Elections, 1912-2008

Rank	Year	Candidate	Party	Percent
1	1928	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	65.4
2	1936	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	62.2
3	1923*	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	57.5
4	1934	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	49.9
5	1922	Henrik Shipstead	Farmer-Labor	47.1
6	1924	Magnus Johnson	Farmer-Labor	45.5
7	1918	Willis G. Calderwood	National	40.0
8	1936*	N. J. Holmberg	Independent	28.4
9	1942	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	28.2
10	1942*	Al Hansen	Farmer-Labor	26.7
11	1940	Elmer A. Benson	Farmer-Labor	25.7
12	1930	Ernest Lundeen	Farmer-Labor	22.9
13	1916	Willis G. Calderwood	Prohibition	20.6
14	1936*	Andrew O. Devold	Independent Progressive	20.0
15	2008	Dean Barkley	Independence	15.2
16	1942	Martin A. Nelson	Independent	14.4
17	1936*	John G. Alexander	Independent	8.7
18	1996	Dean Barkley	Reform	7.0
19	1976	Paul Helm	American	6.6
20	2000	James Gibson	Independence	5.8
21	1994	Dean Barkley	Independence	5.4
22	2006	Robert Fitzgerald	Independence	3.2
23	1978*	Paul Helm	American	2.9
24	1930	Charles A. Lund	Independent	2.6
25	1988	Polly Mann	Progressive Issues	2.1
26	2002	Jim Moore	Independence	2.0
27	1990	Russell B. Bentley	Grassroots	1.7
28	1978	Sal Carlone	American	1.5
29	1946	Grace Carlson	Revolutionary Workers Party	1.3
30	1954	Francis Patrick Ryan	Liberal Independent	1.1
31	1924	Merle Birmingham	Beer-Wine Independent	1.0

* Denotes special election contest. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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