Will a New Stadium Make the Minnesota Vikings a More Successful Franchise?

50+ year analysis finds only modest increase in winning percentage for teams receiving new stadiums

With the Minnesota Vikings on track to perhaps tie their best ever regular season record, Brett Favre on pace to notch one of the best years for a quarterback in NFL history, and Vikings ownership getting more antsy each day about their current stadium, St. Paul is buzzing with the talk of how a new stadium deal with public funding can possibly be reached in light of a struggling economy and soaring state budget deficits.

While Vikings owner Zygi Wilf has not directly stated that a new stadium deal is required to keep the team in Minnesota, there are essentially only two reasons a franchise would want to move forward with a new stadium deal: 1) A new stadium would make the team more profitable for the Vikings ownership (and thus providing an incentive for the team to remain in Minnesota), or 2) A new stadium and facilities are needed to lure and retain top players to the franchise, and thus make the team better.

In the first part of a series of reports on the stadium issue, Smart Politics investigates the latter point and asks, “Will a new stadium lead to a more successful NFL team in Minnesota?”

A Smart Politics analysis of the impact of new stadiums on NFL franchises finds that while such facilities may have helped in some situations to keep teams from leaving their home towns for greener pastures, they have had only a slight positive impact on the team’s ability to perform on the field. Overall, NFL teams have barely mustered a .500 winning percentage over the first five years after new stadiums were built.

Smart Politics examined the winning percentage over a five-year period before and after new stadiums were opened for 22 of the NFL’s 32 teams dating back to the league’s oldest stadium in operation, Lambeau Field, which opened in Green Bay in 1957.

Ten teams were eliminated from analysis due to insufficient “before” or “after” samples:

· The new stadiums for the Arizona Cardinals (2006), Indianapolis Colts (2008), and Dallas Cowboys (2009) all opened less than five seasons ago.
· The stadiums for the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans opened in the year the teams entered the league as expansion franchises (1995 and 2002 respectively).
· The St. Louis Rams’ stadium opened in 1995, the year the team relocated from Los Angeles.
· The Tennessee Titans’ new stadium (1999) opened just two years after the franchise relocated from Houston.
· The new stadiums for the Carolina Panthers (1996) and Baltimore Ravens (1998) opened just shortly after the teams began to play in those cities (one season and two seasons respectively).
· The Cleveland Browns were essentially an expansion franchise when the team returned with the opening of a new stadium in 1999 after a three-year absence from 1996-1998.

Overall, these 22 NFL teams compiled a .462 winning percentage (747 wins, 869 losses, 22 ties) across the five respective years before their new stadiums were built.

In the five seasons after the new stadiums opened, these teams notched a slightly better record, but only four games over .500. With 829 wins, 825 losses and 17 ties, the first five years brought these 22 franchises a collective winning percentage of just .501 in the first five years in their new respective facilities.

Thirteen NFL franchises improved during the five years after the opening of their current stadium: the Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills, Oakland Raiders, and Green Bay Packers.

The biggest turnaround occurred for the Oakland Raiders, who compiled a 26-41-3 mark (.393) in the five years before their new stadium in 1966 and a 53-13-4 mark (.786) including one Super Bowl appearance in the five years thereafter.

Nine franchises, however, recorded a lower winning percentage during the five years after the new stadium was built: the Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, and San Francisco 49ers.

The Vikings, of course, have been down this road before.

In the team’s last five years at Metropolitan Stadium, the team recorded a 40-37-1 record (.519). In its first five years at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, the team only mustered a 32-41 record (.438).

If the Vikings ownership could somehow snare a new stadium deal at the Capitol, the team’s 43-32 record (.573) over the last 4+ seasons would rank as the sixth best of teams receiving new stadiums – normally teams are performing worse on the field when ground is broken on new facilities. Only Indianapolis (.788), Miami (.746), Kansas City (.721), Denver (.700), and San Diego (.593) had better records in the five years leading up to the opening of their current new stadiums.

Of course, the regular season is but a means to an end – to make the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl.

In the five years before receiving new stadiums, these 22 franchises made 32 playoff appearances en route to four Super Bowl victories (the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl IV, Denver Broncos in XXXII and XXXIII, and the New England Patriots in XXXVI).

In the five years after receiving new stadiums, these 22 NFL teams made a nearly identical 35 playoff appearances en route to four Super Bowl victories (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII, Pittsburgh Steelers in XL, and New England Patriots in XXXVIII and XXXIX).

Perhaps the only significant difference is that five additional teams during the “new stadium” period went on to appear in, but lose, the Super Bowl during the first five years with the new facilities – including four teams with new stadiums built this decade: the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, Seattle Seahawks in XL, Chicago Bears in XLI, and New England Patriots in XLII. The Oakland Raiders also lost in Super Bowl II.

Just two teams went on to appear in and lose the Super Bowl during the last five years playing in their “old stadium” – the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowls XVII and XIX.

(Note: once the data for the three newest NFL data is folded in, that will add one Super Bowl victory to the “old stadium” tally, Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLI, and one Super Bowl loss to the “new stadium” column, Arizona in XLIII).

In sum, there appears to be a short-term trend of new stadiums correlated with greater success for NFL franchises that is bucking the long view and 50-year data sample: overall, there is only a very modest increase in winning percentage for teams with new stadiums.

NFL Franchise Record During the Five Years Before and After New Stadium Openings, 1957-2003

Team	Year	Before	%	After	%
Philadelphia Eagles	2003	42-38	.525	49-31	.613
Chicago Bears	2003	32-48	.400	43-27	.538
New England Patriots	2002	43-37	.538	59-21	.738
Seattle Seahawks	2002	40-40	.500	48-32	.600
Detroit Lions	2002	33-47	.413	22-58	.257
Denver Broncos	2001	56-24	.700	50-30	.625
Pittsburgh Steelers	2001	43-37	.538	55-24-1	.694
Cincinnati Bengals	2000	29-41	.363	28-52	.350
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1998	34-46	.425	50-30	.625
Washington Redskins	1997	31-49	.388	40-39-1	.506
Atlanta Falcons	1992	26-53	.329	31-49	.388
Miami Dolphins	1987	53-18	.746	42-37	.532
Minnesota Vikings	1982	40-37-1	.519	32-41	.438
New York Giants	1976	21-48-1	.307	24-53	.316
New York Jets	1976	27-43	.386	26-50	.342
New Orleans Saints	1975	18-48-4	.286	24-50	.324
Buffalo Bills	1973	13-54-3	.207	31-39	.443
Kansas City Chiefs	1972	48-13-3	.721	30-38-2	.443
San Diego Chargers	1967	39-26-5	.593	36-30-4	.543
Oakland Raiders	1966	26-41-3	.393	53-13-4	.786
San Francisco 49ers	1960	30-29-1	.508	26-41-1	.390
Green Bay Packers	1957	22-37-1	.375	30-31-4	.492
Total		747-869-22	.463	829-825-17	.501

NFL team record data compiled by Smart Politics.

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