Competitive elections in Democratic districts may not result in ousting of any incumbents

Current delegation partisan split
Democrats: 3
Republicans: 2

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 3
Republican incumbents: 2
Open seats: 0

Analysis
Expected (and substantial) Republican victories up and down the ballot In Iowa’s gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests on one side and in the state legislature on the other, would suggest that one or more of the three Democratic U.S. House seats on the ballot sandwiched in between are vulnerable in 2010.

Despite their vulnerability, there are reasons to suspect Bruce Braley
(IA-01), David Loebsack (IA-02), and perennial GOP target Leonard Boswell (IA-03) all may survive on Election Day.

Braley’s and Loebsack’s districts probably have enough of a Democratic partisan tilt to see them through, while Boswell has been in this position several times over his previous seven campaigns – always managing to find a way to win.

If one or more of these districts should flip to the Republicans, the somewhat aggressive state legislative shift to the GOP projected by Smart Politics in the State House and State Senate may be on the low end.

Projections
IA-01. Bruce Braley (Democratic hold)
IA-02. David Loebsack (Democratic hold)
IA-03. Leonard Boswell (Democratic hold)
IA-04. Tom Latham (GOP hold)
IA-05. Steve King (GOP hold)

Partisan shift: No change

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Posted in Iowa, National Politics, U.S. House

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