Are Democrats Becoming a Two-State Party?

Percentage of Democratic U.S. House Seats from California and New York soars to a record high of 28.1 percent after the 2010 elections

Despite losing six U.S. House seats in New York on November 2nd (with defeats in NY-01 and NY-25 still tentative), the Democratic Party nonetheless continues to be ever more a party of two coasts – with a particular emphasis on the Empire and Golden States.

A Smart Politics analysis of 81 election cycles dating back to 1850 finds that the Democratic Party now comprises a larger percentage of Californians and New Yorkers in the U.S. House than at any point since California joined the Union.

When the 112th Congress convenes in January, 28.1 percent of the Democratic caucus will hail from California (34 members) and New York (20 members).

That marks an increase of 4.8 points from 23.3 percent of the caucus after the 2008 election and 6.5 points since the last Democratic collapse after the Republican Revolution of 1994 (21.6 percent).

While Democrats did not suffer any net losses in California in 2010 (though victories in CA-11 and CA-20 are still pending), the Party endured substantial setbacks in the south and Midwest, leaving the percentage of its U.S. Representatives from two of the nation’s most liberal states at an all-time high.

And although the raw number of representatives in the Democratic caucus hailing from these two states has been higher after previous election cycles (60 seats in 2008, 57 in 1976 and 2006, and 55 in 1974), the Party has never been as reliant on the New York and California electorate as it is today.

Prior to the 28.1 percent mark tallied by the two states after the 2010 election cycle, the previous record high was 26.3 percent set in 1864 during the Civil War (with a depleted caucus due to seceded southern states).

During that cycle, New York held 10 of the nation’s mere 38 Democratic House seats, with California sending none to D.C. (An 11th Democratic New York seat won on Election Day, NY-08, was later lost in a contested election).

The number of delegates from each of the two states has varied greatly across the decades, but has held relatively flat cumulatively since 1962.

Between 1962 and 2010 New York and California have accounted for between 18.2 percent and 19.1 percent of all U.S. House seats (with California’s delegation increasing and New York’s decreasing all the while).

Dating back to California’s statehood in 1850, the two states comprised 15.5 percent of the nation’s U.S. representatives, dipping to a low of 11.5 percent in the 1890s and early 1900s, and spiking to highs of 19.1 percent in 1860 and the 1990s.

The two states currently account for 18.9 percent of U.S. House seats.

There has been much greater variation in the percentage of Democratic seats from these two states, however, with the California and New York contingent comprising less than half of its current proportion as late as 1958 (35 of 283 Democratic seats, or just 12.4 percent).

There has also been a 61.5 percent increase in the percentage of Californians and New Yorkers in the House Democratic caucus from the 1962 election (17.4 percent) to 2010 (28.1 percent).

Aside from a brief surge in the concentration of Democrats from New York and California during the Civil War period (eclipsing 20 percent from 1860-1868), the Party’s reliance on the delegations from these two states has been at an unprecedented high across the last two decades.

During the 1992-2000 redistricting period, 21.6 percent of Democratic House seats came from the Empire and Golden states – after relatively stable periods from 1962-1970 (18.0 percent), 1982-1990 (18.1 percent), and 1982-1990 (18.1 percent).

That percentage has now increased to 25.4 percent during the 2002-2010 period, or nearly twice as high as the 1952-1960 election cycles (12.9 percent).

Percentage of New York and California Delegations of All Democrats in U.S. House By Redistricting Period, 1850-2010

Period	NY	CA	Total	Democrats	%
1850	16	2	18	127	14.2
1852-1860	49	8	57	499	11.4
1862-1870	65	4	69	328	21.0
1872-1880	61	8	69	694	9.9
1882-1890	92	13	105	935	11.2
1892-1900	62	7	69	747	9.2
1902-1910	72	4	76	880	8.6
1912-1920	93	16	109	1,058	10.3
1922-1930	116	7	123	964	12.8
1932-1940	135	62	197	1,498	13.2
1942-1950	110	57	167	1,150	14.5
1952-1960	91	67	158	1,225	12.9
1962-1970	123	111	234	1,299	18.0
1972-1980	126	128	254	1,344	18.9
1982-1990	101	135	236	1,307	18.1
1992-2000	90	146	236	1,091	21.6
2002-2010	108	169	277	1,089	25.4
Total	1,510	944	2,454	16,235	15.1

Data reflects totals based on November election day results. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Those taking the long view of history know that New York and California have not always been Democratic-friendly states, with the Democrats being in the minority of each state’s delegation during several stretches over the past 160 years.

Overall, Democrats have won only 50.2 percent of general election New York U.S. House contests since 1850 (1,510 out of 3,009 races) and 52.9 percent in California (944 of 1,782).

The trend, however, has been sliding upwards over the past 50 years.

Democrats have represented a majority of New York’s U.S. House delegation in every election cycle since 1964 and in California since 1958.

The percentage of New York seats in the Democratic column after the 2010 election (69.0 percent) decreased from its all-time high after 2008 (89.7 percent), but is still the 7th largest since 1850 (behind 2006, 79.3 percent; 1912, 72.1 percent; 1976, 71.8 percent, 1978, 69.2 percent, and 1974, 69.2 percent).

The 64.2 percent of Democratic seats in the California delegation is tied for the 7th highest since the state became a 7-member delegation in the 1890s, behind 1936 (75.0 percent), 1944 (69.6 percent), 1976 (67.4 percent), 1962 (65.8 percent), 1974 (65.1 percent), 1934 (65.0 percent) and tied with 2004, 2006, and 2008.

Percentage of New York and California Delegations of All Democrats in U.S. House by Election Cycle, 1850-2010

Year	NY	CA	Total	Democrats	%
2010	20	34	54	193**	28.1
2008	26	34	60	257	23.3
2006	23	34	57	233	24.5
2004	20	34	54	202	26.7
2002	19	33	52	205	25.4
2000	19	32	51	212	24.1
1998	18	28	46	211	21.8
1996	18	29	47	206	22.8
1994	17	27	44	204	21.6
1992	18	30	48	258	18.6
1990	21	26	47	267	17.6
1988	21	27	48	260	18.5
1986	20	27	47	258	18.2
1984	19	27	46	253	18.2
1982	20	28	48	269	17.8
1980	22	22	44	242	18.2
1978	27	26	53	277	19.1
1976	28	29	57	292	19.5
1974	27	28	55	291	18.9
1972	22	23	45	242	18.6
1970	24	21	45	255	17.6
1968	26	21	47	243	19.3
1966	26	21	47	247	19.0
1964	27	23	50	295	16.9
1962	20	25	45	259	17.4
1960	22	16	38	263	14.4
1958	19	16	35	283	12.4
1956	17	13	30	234	12.8
1954	17	11	28	232	12.1
1952	16	11	27	213	12.7
1950	23	10	33	235	14.0
1948	24	10	34	263	12.9
1946	17	9	26	188	13.8
1944	23	16	39	242	16.1
1942	23	12	35	222	15.8
1940	25	11	36	267	13.5
1938	25	12	37	262	14.1
1936	27	15	42	334	12.6
1934	29	13	42	322	13.0
1932	29	11	40	313	12.8
1930	23	1	24	216	11.1
1928	23	1	24	164	14.6
1926	25	1	26	194	13.4
1924	22	2	24	183	13.1
1922	23	2	25	207	12.1
1920	9	2	11	131	8.4
1918	19	4	23	192	12.0
1916	16	4	20	214	9.3
1914	18	3	21	230	9.1
1912	31	3	34	291	11.7
1910	21	1	22	230	9.6
1908	12	0	12	172	7.0
1906	12	0	12	167	7.2
1904	11	0	11	135	8.1
1902	16	3	19	176	10.8
1900	13	0	13	151	8.6
1898	18	1	19	161	11.8
1896	6	2	8	124	6.5
1894	5*	1	6	93	6.5
1892	20	3	23	218	10.6
1890	23	2	25	238	10.5
1888	16	2	18	152	11.8
1886	15	2	17	167	10.2
1884	17	1	18	182	9.9
1882	21	6	27	196	13.8
1880	12*	2	14	128	10.9
1878	8	1	9	141	6.4
1876	16	1	17	155	11.0
1874	16	3	19	182	10.4
1872	9	1	10	88	11.4
1870	16	0	16	104	15.4
1868	12*	2	14	67	20.9
1866	10	2	12	47	25.5
1864	10*	0	10	38	26.3
1862	17	0	17	72	23.6
1860	9	0	9	44	20.5
1858	3	2	5	83	6.0
1856	12	2	14	132	10.6
1854	5	2	7	83	8.4
1852	20	2	22	157	14.0
1850	16	2	18	127	14.2
Total	1,510	944	2,454	16,235	15.1

Data reflects totals based on November election day results, except (*) adjusts for contested elections in which a new winner was selected. ** Projected totals. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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