Scott Walker’s Ticket to Ride: Obama in the White House?

Wisconsin voters have elected a governor from a different political party than the sitting president in 26 of the last 31 elections dating back to 1932; the GOP is 15-4 with a Democrat in the White House while Democrats are 1-18

A recent POLITICO article by James Hohmann entitled “Scott Walker’s Stealth 2016 Strategy” outlines the Wisconsin Republican governor’s plan to “Win reelection next year in this purple state without moderating a record that has won many hearts in the conservative base; let the other GOP hopefuls get sullied by the mud pit of Congress and each other; then pounce in 2015.”

That first step – winning reelection in 2014 – can’t quite be rated as a slam dunk as of yet, given Wisconsin’s aforementioned purple state status.

However, prognosticators all agree the seat will likely be held by Walker next year – a particularly logical assessment to make at this time given the fact that the Wisconsin Democratic Party is still searching for a candidate and much of the left’s anti-Walker fuel was exhausted after 2012’s failed recall attempt.

Add to that a little historical advantage Walker might have by the fact that there is a Democrat in the White House.

A Smart Politics review of Wisconsin’s gubernatorial electoral history since the Great Depression finds that the state has voted for the candidate of a political party other than the one occupying the White House in 26 of the last 31 cycles, or 84 percent of the time.

Only five times over the last 80+ years have Wisconsin residents sent to Madison a governor of the same political party as the sitting president, and only once has a Democratic candidate been elected governor in the Badger State across the 18 contests in which a Democrat was in the White House during this span:

· 1954: Republican Walter Kohler, Jr. was elected to a third term as Governor of Wisconsin in the middle of Dwight Eisenhower’s first term as president.

· 1956: Wisconsin voted Republican Vernon Thomson into office with Eisenhower in the White House.

· 1962: With John Kennedy serving as president, Wisconsinites elected Democrat John Reynolds governor.

· 1986: Republican Tommy Thompson won his first of four terms with Ronald Reagan in the White House.

· 1990: Thompson was reelected to a second term while George H.W. Bush served as president.

During the other 26 cycles, Wisconsinites said ‘no’ to the party of the president and voted for a gubernatorial candidate of another party:

· In 15 cycles, a Republican governor was elected in Wisconsin with a Democrat in the White House: 1938, 1940, 1944, 1946, 1948, 1950, 1952, 1964, 1966, 1968, 1978, 1994, 1998, 2010, 2012.

· In eight cycles, a Democratic candidate was victorious with a Republican serving as president: 1932, 1958, 1960, 1970, 1974, 1982, 2002, 2006.

· In three cycles, a Progressive won the governor’s race with a Democrat in the White House: 1934 (Philip La Follette), 1936 (La Follette), 1942 (Orland Loomis). (Note: Loomis died before his term started and Republican Lieutentant Governor-elect Walter Goodland ascended to the office).

Perhaps the Wisconsin GOP has been particularly successful in gubernatorial races in shifting the focus for the state’s problems to Washington, D.C.

Because for more than three-quarters of a century, an apparent recipe for success for Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial candidates has been having a Democrat in the White House – winning 15 races and losing just four since 1932.

(Three of these four losses came at the hands of the GOP-splintering Progressive Party – which captured the governor’s race in 1934, 1936, and 1942 as mentioned above. The GOP also lost in 1962).

What makes this trend in Wisconsin so interesting is the fact that the Badger State has not frequently been on the losing end when it comes to casting its Electoral College votes in presidential elections.

Since 1932, a president served in the White House for whom Wisconsin cast its Electoral College votes in 26 of the 31 cycles in which a gubernatorial election took place .

In other words, the state has been schizophrenic in casting its vote for president and governor for decades.

The only exceptions came in 1946 and 1948 (Wisconsin voted for Thomas Dewey in 1944), 1990 (Wisconsin voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988), and 2002 and 2006 (Wisconsin voted for Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004).

Wisconsin Vote for Governor vis-à-vis Party Control of the White House, 1932-2012

Year	Sitting President	Party	Elected Governor	Party
2012	Obama	Democrat	Scott Walker	Republican
2010	Obama	Democrat	Scott Walker	Republican
2006	G.W. Bush	Republican	Jim Doyle	Democrat
2002	G.W. Bush	Republican	Jim Doyle	Democrat
1998	Clinton	Democrat	Tommy Thompson	Republican
1994	Clinton	Democrat	Tommy Thompson	Republican
1990	G.H.W. Bush	Republican	Tommy Thompson	Republican
1986	Reagan	Republican	Tommy Thompson	Republican
1982	Reagan	Republican	Anthony Earl	Democrat
1978	Carter	Democrat	Lee Dreyfus	Republican
1974	Ford	Republican	Patrick Lucey	Democrat
1970	Nixon	Republican	Patrick Lucey	Democrat
1968	Johnson	Democrat	Warren Knowles	Republican
1966	Johnson	Democrat	Warren Knowles	Republican
1964	Johnson	Democrat	Warren Knowles	Republican
1962	Kennedy	Democrat	John Reynolds	Democrat
1960	Eisenhower	Republican	Gaylord Nelson	Democrat
1958	Eisenhower	Republican	Gaylord Nelson	Democrat
1956	Eisenhower	Republican	Vernon Thomson	Republican
1954	Eisenhower	Republican	Walter Kohler, Jr.	Republican
1952	Truman	Democrat	Walter Kohler, Jr.	Republican
1950	Truman	Democrat	Walter Kohler, Jr.	Republican
1948	Truman	Democrat	Oscar Rennebohm	Republican
1946	Truman	Democrat	Walter Goodland	Republican
1944	Roosevelt	Democrat	Walter Goodland	Republican
1942	Roosevelt	Democrat	Orland Loomis*	Progressive
1940	Roosevelt	Democrat	Julius Heil	Republican
1938	Roosevelt	Democrat	Julius Heil	Republican
1936	Roosevelt	Democrat	Philip La Follette	Progressive
1934	Roosevelt	Democrat	Philip La Follette	Progressive
1932	Hoover	Republican	Albert Schmedeman	Democrat

* Died before taking office. Replaced by Republican Lieutenant Governor Walter Goodland. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.