McDaniel vs Cochran 2nd Most Competitive US Senate Primary in Mississippi History

The 2014 Mississippi Republican U.S. Senate primary is one of just two in state history decided by less than one point by either party

The 2014 Mississippi U.S. Senate Republican primary election was highly anticipated due to the even odds that a six-term U.S. Senator could be defeated by a Tea Party challenger (for a second consecutive cycle after Dick Lugar of Indiana in 2012).

Thad Cochran had faced only one primary opponent during his five previous reelection bids – Richard O’Hara, winning just 4.7 percent in 1996 – running without any GOP challengers in 1984, 1990, 2002, and 2008.

But this cycle Cochran faced two opponents including the well-funded State Senator Chris McDaniel.

Tuesday’s primary lived up to the hype – not only spawning a runoff to determine the nominee, but also nearly breaking the state record for the most closely decided U.S. Senate primary race Mississippi had ever witnessed.

Smart Politics examined the nearly 50 Democratic and Republican Mississippi U.S. Senate primaries that have been conducted since 1916 and found that the McDaniel vs. Cochran matchup yielded the second narrowest margin between the top two finishers in state history.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, McDaniel led Cochran by 0.5 points – 49.5 percent to 49.0 percent, with Thomas Carey at 1.5 percent.

Only once in Mississippi history has a U.S. Senate primary battle been this tight for either party – in a contest held 80 years ago.

The most competitive primary contest ever held in Mississippi for the nation’s upper legislative chamber came in 1934 when two-term incumbent Hubert Stephens squared off against three challengers that included former Governor Theodore Bilbo and seven-term U.S. Representative Ross Collins.

Stephens edged Bilbo by just 0.1 points in the primary with 37.3 percent of the vote while Collins came in third with 24.6 percent.

Bilbo came back to win the subsequent runoff with 51.8 percent a few weeks later.

Stephens is one of three Mississippi U.S. Senators to lose a primary or primary runoff election.

In 1918, one-term incumbent James Vardaman was defeated by 9.7 points in the Democratic primary by Pat Harrison in a three-candidate field.

Harrison won 51.7 percent to narrowly avoid a runoff with Vardaman tallying 42.0 percent.

In 1942, Democrat Wall Doxey, who won a special election to the chamber one year prior, came in second to James Eastland in the primary in a five candidate field.

Eastland had 37.6 percent to Doxey’s 28.3 percent with 10-term Congressman Ross Collins in third at 27.4 percent.

Eastland prevailed in the primary runoff with 56.8 percent to win the seat for what would be the first of six terms in office.

Each of the last five runoff-bound first place finishers in a Mississippi U.S. Senate primary won the subsequent runoff election: Democrats James Eastland (1942), Maurice Dantin (1978), Ken Harper (1994), Troy Brown (2000), and Erik Fleming (2006).

Only James Vardaman in 1922 (beaten by Hubert Stephens) and Hubert Stephens in 1934 (defeated by Theodore Bilbo) placed first in the primary but lost the runoff.

Overall, the state’s 35 contested Democratic and Republican U.S. Senate primaries have been decided by an average of 39.4 points.

The 28 contested Democratic contests were decided by an average of 34.5 points while the seven Republican primaries with at least two candidates have been decided by an average of 58.7 points.

Only eight Mississippi U.S. Senate primaries have been decided by a difference of less than 10 percentage points between the first and second place finishers:

· 1934 (0.1 points): Hubert Stephens (37.3 percent), Theodore Bilbo (37.2 percent)
· 2014 (0.5 points): Chris McDaniel (49.5 percent), Thad Cochran (49.0 percent)
· 1978 (1.2 points): Maurice Dantin (29.0 percent), Cliff Finch (27.8 percent)
· 2002 (4.4 points): Steven Turney (52.2 percent), Bootie Hunt (47.8 percent)
· 1928 (5.2 points): Hubert Stephens (52.6 percent), T. Webber Wilson (47.4 percent)
· 1922 (5.5 points): James Vardaman (47.0 percent), Hubert Stephens (41.5 percent)
· 1942 (9.3 points): James Eastland (37.6 percent), Wall Doxey (28.3 percent)
· 1918 (9.7 points): Pat Harrison (51.7 percent), James Vardaman (42.0 percent)

The Top 20 Most Competitive Mississippi U.S. Senate Primaries

Rank	Year	Party	1st	%	2nd	%	# Cand	MoV
1	1934	Democrat	Hubert Stephens	37.3	Theodore Bilbo	37.2	4	0.1
2	2014	Republican	Chris McDaniel	49.5	Thad Cochran	49.0	3	0.5
3	1978	Democrat	Maurice Dantin	29.0	Cliff Finch	27.8	4	1.2
4	2002	Democrat	Steven Turney	52.2	Bootie Hunt	47.8	2	4.4
5	1928	Democrat	Hubert Stephens	52.6	T. Webber Wilson	47.4	2	5.2
6	1922	Democrat	James Vardaman	47.0	Hubert Stephens	41.5	3	5.5
7	1942	Democrat	James Eastland	37.6	Wall Doxey	28.3	5	9.3
8	1918	Democrat	Pat Harrison	51.7	James Vardaman	42.0	3	9.7
9	1988	Democrat	Wayne Dowdy	53.5	Dick Molpus	42.8	3	10.7
10	2000	Democrat	Troy Brown	36.6	Rickey Cole	20.6	5	16.0
11	1996	Democrat	Bootie Hunt	58.8	Shawn O’Hara	41.3	2	17.5
12	1994	Democrat	Ken Harper	46.7	Hiram Eastland	28.9	5	17.8
13	1940	Democrat	Theodore Bilbo	59.3	Hugh White	40.7	2	18.6
14	1946	Democrat	Theodore Bilbo	51.0	Tom Ellis	30.2	5	20.8
15	2006	Democrat	Erik Fleming	44.1	Bill Bowlin	22.1	4	22.0
16	1954	Democrat	James Eastland	62.0	Carroll Gartin	38.0	2	24.0
17	2008	Democrat	Erik Fleming	65.6	Shawn O’Hara	34.4	2	31.2
18	1936	Democrat	Pat Harrison	65.5	Martin Conner	33.2	3	32.3
19	2012	Democrat	Albert Gore	56.8	Roger Weiner	24.4	3	32.4
20	1978	Republican	Thad Cochran	69.0	Charles Pickering	31.0	2	38.0

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Republicans did not hold their first primary in Mississippi until 1966.

Since then, the party has fielded candidates in 15 cycles, with more than half of these not drawing a primary challenger: Prentiss Walker (1966), Thad Cochran (1984, 1990, 2002, 2008), and Trent Lott (1988, 1994, 2000, 2006).

Prior to 2014, the low water mark for a first place Republican U.S. Senate primary finisher in the Magnolia State was the 69.0 percent recorded by Cochran during his initial U.S. Senate bid in 1978 when he defeated Charles Pickering in a two-candidate race.

On the Democratic side, there have been 34 cycles since the state’s first direct primary in 1916, although the party did not field any candidates in 1990.

Cochran and McDaniel will square off once again in the runoff in less than three weeks on June 24th.

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