Which State Will Be the Most Closely Decided in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Battlegrounds Nevada and North Carolina have never hosted the nation’s most competitive race

Barring a major 11th hour shift in the 2024 presidential election race, all signs point to one of seven battleground states coming in with the smallest victory margin: two in the Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin), two in the South (Georgia, North Carolina), two in the West (Arizona, Nevada), and one in the Northeast (Pennsylvania).

[A major shift to Kamala Harris would likely put Florida or Texas in play for that designation and a large shift to Donald Trump would do the same for Minnesota and New Hampshire].

Pennsylvania is the most coveted battleground state for both parties as it owns the largest number of Electoral College votes, but it has been a rarity for Northeastern states to produce the biggest nail-biter of the cycle over the last century.

Across the last 21 cycles since 1940, only once has a Northeastern state hosted the closest presidential contest in the nation.

That occurred during Ronald Reagan’s 1980 Electoral College blowout against President Jimmy Carter, when Reagan eked out a 0.15-point victory in Massachusetts. [Sixteen states were decided by less than five points that cycle including eight states by fewer than two points].

From 1828 through 1936, Northeastern states tallied the most competitive contest in 14 of 28 cycles, although it should be acknowledged that the region owned a larger percentage of the number of states in the union during many of these decades.

Over the last eight election cycles since 1992, each of the most narrowly decided states were located in the Midwest or the South:

• 1992: Georgia (0.59 points)
• 1996: Kentucky (0.96)
• 2000: Florida (0.01)
• 2004: Wisconsin (0.38)
• 2008: Missouri (0.13)
• 2012: Florida (1.07)
• 2016: Michigan (0.22)
• 2020: Georgia (0.24)

Of the 2024 battleground states, Nevada and North Carolina have never hosted the most competitive race in the nation.

The presidential margin of victory in North Carolina has been the second closest in the nation four times since 1828: in 1852 (0.94 points), 1992 (0.79), 2008 (0.33), and 2012 (2.04) while Nevada has hosted the second closest once (1996, 1.06 points).

The closest presidential election has twice occurred in Georgia (1992, 2020) and Michigan (1940, 2016) and once each in Arizona (1964), Pennsylvania (1840), and Wisconsin (2004).

Since 1828, Kentucky leads the way with the most competitive race in five cycles (1896, 1900, 1920, 1952, 1996) followed by California (1868, 1880, 1892, 1912), Maryland (1828, 1832, 1872, 1904), and Missouri (1908, 1956, 1968, 2008) with four cycles each.

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