In Which States Will Partisan Momentum Continue in 2024’s Presidential Contest?
Just four states have seen one party gain ground over each of the last three election cycles
Although there is some support for the narrative that red states are getting redder and blue states are getting bluer, this has generally not held true across presidential elections over the last generation.
Since the 2008 cycle, only four states have continued to see an uninterrupted, growing partisan advantage in every presidential race.
The trend in each of these four states has favored the GOP.
Following the election of Barack Obama in 2008, only Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada have seen a constant, if slight, partisan shift in every subsequent election.
Arkansas, in fact, owns the nation’s longest such active streak, with Republicans making gains in every cycle following Bill Clinton’s home state victory by 17.7 points in 1992:
- 1996: Clinton won by 16.9 points
- 2000: George W. Bush (+5.4)
- 2004: Bush (+9.8)
- 2008: John McCain (+19.9)
- 2012: Mitt Romney (+23.7)
- 2016: Donald Trump (+26.9)
- 2020: Trump (+27.6)
Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada have also each seen Republican presidential nominees make gains across the last three elections subsequent to the 2008 cycle.
Obama’s 2.8-point win in Florida in 2008 was followed by a 0.9-point victory in 2012 and then Trump wins by 1.2 and 3.4 points in 2016 and 2020 respectively.
Democratic victories in Hawaii have declined after peaking at 45.3 points in 2008 to 42.7 points in 2012, 32.2 points by Hillary Clinton in 2016, and 29.5 points by Joe Biden in 2020.
Similarly, Democrats have carried Nevada by slimmer margins: 12.5 points in 2008, 6.7 points in 2012, 2.42 points in 2016, and 2.39 points in 2020.
With the possible exception of Hawaii, it would not be surprising to see the trend toward greater support for GOP presidential nominees continue this cycle in Arkansas, Florida, and Nevada.
On the Democratic side, the largest number of consecutive cycles with increased partisan gains sits at just two – a feat accomplished in eight states.
Democrats have increased their margins of victory in three states since 2012:
- Massachusetts: From a 23.1-point victory in 2012 to 27.3 points in 2016 and 33.5 points in 2020
- Virginia: Wins of 3.9 points in 2012, 5.3 points in 2016, and 10.1 points in 2020
- Washington: Wins of 14.9 points in 2012, 15.8 points in 2016, and 19.2 points in 2020
Democratic nominees have also improved their standing over the last two cycles in these five states:
- Arizona: A 9.0-point defeat in 2012, a loss by 3.6 points in 2016, and a victory by 0.3 points in 2020
- Georgia: A 7.8-point defeat in 2012, a loss by 5.2 points in 2016, and a win by 0.2 points in 2020
- Idaho: Losses by 31.9 points in 2012, 31.8 points in 2016, and 30.7 points in 2020
- Kansas: Losses by 21.7 points in 2012, 21.0 points in 2016, and 14.6 points in 2020
- Texas: Losses by 15.8 points in 2012, 9.1 points in 2016, and 5.6 points in 2020
The aforementioned Democratic momentum is not likely to continue in Massachusetts and Virginia this November. However, the state that could see the biggest jump for the Democrats among these eight listed above is Kansas – even though it has perhaps been the most reliably Republican state in federal elections over the last century.
Of the 20 states that have backed a GOP presidential nominee in every cycle since 2008, Kansas is one of only two states – along with neighboring Nebraska – to see Democratic nominees make cycle-to-cycle gains of more than five percentage points from 2016 to 2020 (6.4 points in Kansas, 6.6 points in Nebraska).
Moreover, Kansans have elected a Democratic governor in two consecutive cycles and nearly won the office of attorney general in 2022. [In August 2022, Kansas voters also rejected a state constitutional amendment that would remove abortion access protections].
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“…perhaps been the most reliably Republican state in federal elections over the last century”.
Has the Sunflower State had at least one Republican serving in the US House since 1923? (The dominance of the party in presidential and especially US senate elections is all too well-known, of course.)
One crucial factor for the (arguably gradual) rise of the Democratic party is the erosion of support for the ‘party of Lincoln, TR, and Reagan’ (the Bushes, Cheneys, Romneys, too) in the NE and Eastern regions – heavily suburban Johnson County in particular. Is the shift more due to longtime residents switching their partisan preferences, or newcomers from the more left-leaning parts (e.g. Greater Saint Louis, city of Saint Paul) bringing their voting habits with them?
Kansas has actually had at least one Republican in the U.S. House since statehood!
– …Bill Clinton’s *then*-home state victory…(“42” ceased to be a legal resident of the Razorback State quite a while ago)
– An even more impressive feat for AR Republicans than the presidential momentum has been the attainment of the ‘Senate tandem’ in a short time frame (following wins in 2010 and 2014 midterms, partly fueled by the extreme estrangement from the HI-born biracial and professorial president).
– There is a decent chance that the D ticket will attain partisan momentum within AK (reverse coattail? lack of enthusiasm for the ‘Queens Man’?) even as it suffers modest reversals in MA and VA. As for HI, the state has had a voting bias both in favor of the Democrats and the incumbent party (the 2016 and 2012 results seem somewhat odd indeed). As well, the ticket is comprised of ‘two Westerners’ (west of the Mississippi, that is), and its presidential nominee is of South Asian background, which might have relatively greater appeal to voters of the Aloha State than in 2020 and 2016.
5 days left to VOTE like your lives depend on it.
{Unrelated}
– Which *Republican* Senate incumbent – relatively speaking – is most at risk of losing her or his seat? (Of the trio, “Cancùn Cruz” of TX is the best known nationally, with a sizable pool of hardened detractors; Fischer of NE has neither national fame nor personal wealth on her side, and she does not have a partisan Democrat as her opponent, thus complicating her bid somewhat; Scott of FL has squeaked by in all three prior statewide elections in lower-turnout midterm years, and Democrats have actually won statewide elections much more recently than in either NE or TX)
– John Charles Carney apparently will resign his current post of governor (ending on 3 of 01 ’25) in order to commence his tenure as *mayor of Wilmington Delaware* (17th) – not bothering to finish the last two weeks of his final gubernatorial term (the First State is one of a handful which has a lifetime rather than consecutive term limit on the post of governor). This downward(?) move seems similar to that made by early (though in 2016 or even now not too well-known) ‘never trumper’ Gordon John Humphrey, who resigned from his US senate seat with nearly a month remaining in order to assume his *NH Senate seat* from the start of its term.
{Odds & Ends}
– Given a choice between year-round SUMMER (“daylight saving”) time and year-round STANDARD time, which would a majority – even a tiny one – of Minnesotans would prefer? Majority or plurality of residents of IA, WI, MN, and SD collectively?
– Does the MAGA/R ticket have a realistic chance of winning the presidency were it to lose the Hawkeye State (the Selzer poll does have a solid reputation, though it understandably disclaims any notion of predicting a result) ?
– Scenario 1: ‘Fortress Venues’ + NE-02 + WI + MI + PA;
Scenario 2: ‘FV’ + NE-02 + NV + WI + AZ + PA;
Scenario 3: ‘FV’ + NE-02 + MI + NC + GA;
If the result is as close as predicted, which of the aforementioned would be the most likely for the winning *Democratic* ticket?