Wisconsin Notches Closest Presidential Race for 2nd Time
The most narrowly decided presidential contest has been hosted by a Midwestern or Southern state for nine consecutive cycles
When Donald Trump flipped six battleground states in 2024, only one was by less than a percentage point – Wisconsin.
Trump’s 0.86-point victory in the Badger State was the most closely decided contest in the presidential race, and marked the second time Wisconsin has received that distinction.
In 2004, Senator John Kerry eked out a 0.38-point win against President George W. Bush in Wisconsin – one of three states decided by less than a point that cycle (Iowa at 0.67 points and New Mexico at 0.79).
Wisconsin is now one of 13 states to have hosted the closest presidential race in multiple cycles since the dawn of the modern two-party era in 1828.
Kentucky leads the way with five (1896, 1900, 1920, 1952, 1996) followed by California, Maryland, and Missouri with four each.
In addition to Wisconsin, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, and Ohio have two each.
Across the last 22 presidential elections since 1940, a Midwestern state has hosted the closest race in the nation 11 times: Michigan in 1940 and 2016, Ohio in 1944 and 1948, Missouri in 1956, 1968, and 2008, Minnesota in 1972 and 1984, and Wisconsin in 2004 and 2024.
Each of the last nine cycles since 1992 have seen a Midwestern or Southern state end up with the most narrowly decided presidential race.
Of course, the most closely decided state need not necessarily be the ‘tipping-point’ state – the state (in order of victory margin) that first pushes a candidate across the 270 Electoral College vote threshold.
That honor goes to Pennsylvania this cycle – four years after Wisconsin held that distinction.
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– My surmise is it is exceedingly rare for a state to be the ‘most narrowly decided’ and the ‘tipping point’ one *in the same election*.
– A persuasive case may be made that Ralph Nader cost the D ticket the Show Me State in 2008 (and its remarkable ‘winning streak’ that had begun anew in 1960) just as he had arguably cost the D ticket the Granite State (and the overall election) in 2000. On the other hand, a strong case may be made that the presence of George Corley Wallace on the state ballot in 1968 prevented the state from voting for the D ticket – and thus break the earlier bellwether streak begun in 1904.
– If a Midwestern state were to host the most closely decided election in ’28, more likely than not the R ticket will win the presidential election, whereas should a state of the ‘Greater South’ notch that distinction (GA in ’20, FL in ’12, MO in ’08, KY in 1996, GA in 1992) the D ticket will win.
I believe the only overlap between mostly narrowly decided and tipping-point states in cycle are South Carolina in 1876, New York in 1884, and Florida in 2000.