How Competitive Are Wisconsin’s US House Districts?
Nearly one in four U.S. House elections in Wisconsin history have been decided by single digits
Democratic affiliated groups failed in their attempt this week to convince the liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court to order the state’s congressional districts be redrawn for the 2026 cycle.
Democrats had previously sued for this change last cycle, which also failed even on the heels of a 2023 Court order requiring new maps be drawn for its state legislative districts. [The Republican controlled legislature subsequently agreed to new maps drawn by the administration of Democratic Governor Tony Evers].
As a result of that change, Democrats subsequently netted four seats in the State Senate and 10 seats in the State Assembly even though Donald Trump carried Wisconsin in the general election at the top of the ticket.
Democrats have only won two of Wisconsin’s eight U.S. House seats under the current congressional maps that went into effect in 2022 – the districts encompassing the deep blue cities of Madison (2nd CD) and Milwaukee (4th). At the same time, Democrats won elections for Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General in 2022 at the top of the ticket while losing only the office of Treasurer.
Wisconsin Democrats have also now lost a majority of congressional districts during every cycle since 2010.
One of the arguments made to the court that Wisconsin should be required to redraw their district lines is that its U.S. House races under these maps are not competitive.
But the truth is Wisconsin’s congressional races have not been very competitive for a half-century and the current maps have actually produced slightly narrower victory margins than average since 1972.
Since 2022, the state’s 17 general and special U.S. House contests have been decided by an average of 31.3 points. [That number includes two races conducted during the 2022 cycle during which Republican nominees in the 6th (Glenn Grothman) and 8th (Mike Gallagher) did not face major party nominees, winning by 94.9 points and 61.9 points respectively].
Over the last five maps drawn during the last 50+ years, the average victory margin in Wisconsin’s congressional races has been 34.6 points:
- 1972-1981 (46 elections): 29.9-point margin of victory average
- 1982-1991 (46 elections): 45.3 points
- 1992-2001 (46 elections): 30.6 points
- 2002-2011 (40 elections): 37.4 points
- 2012-2021 (41 elections): 30.7 points
- 2022-present (17 elections): 31.3 points
But it is also true that Wisconsin’s congressional races used to be much more competitive. From statehood in 1848 through 1911, the average victory margin was just 16.6 points with more than one-third of these elections decided by single digits (87 of 251, 34.7 percent):
- 1848-1851 (eight elections): 15.3 points
- 1852-1861 (15 elections): 12.6 points
- 1862-1871 (32 elections): 19.5 points
- 1872-1881 (40 elections): 12.3 points
- 1882-1891 (48 elections): 12.7 points
- 1891-1901 (52 elections): 17.9 points
- 1902-1911 (56 elections): 21.5 points
The new districts that went into effect in 1912 were not redrawn until after the 1930 U.S. Census. This 1912 to 1931 electoral map was the second least competitive in Wisconsin history with an average victory margin of 40.0 points across 115 contests. Moreover, nearly one in three elections to the chamber during this two-decade stretch only had one major party nominee on the ballot – 36 of 115 elections (31.3 percent). That accounts for 47.4 percent of the 76 U.S. House elections since statehood in which one major party did not field a nominee in the race.
The remaining four decades (1932-1971) saw victory margins average 22.3 percentage points across 204 elections:
- 1932-1941 (51 elections): 13.7 points
- 1942-1951 (51 elections): 27.4 points
- 1952-1961 (51 elections): 23.2 points
- 1962-1971 (51 elections): 24.8 points
Overall, 186 of 806 U.S. House elections in Wisconsin have been decided by single digits (24.3 percent).
In the 19th Century heyday, nearly half of all elections were competitive during the maps created in 1852-1861 (46.7 percent with single-digits MoVs), 1872-1881 (47.5 percent), and 1882-1891 (45.8 percent).
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– Had Sarah Ann Godlewski sought re-election for treasurer the post quite likely would have remained with the Democrats (she had garnered a greater vote share than her ticketmates for constitutional officers in 2018).
– The anti-rightist Court aruguably exercised judicial restraint (to the chagrin of left-leaning voting rights activists), figuring that the more fundamental issue of the geographical distribution of partisan voters in the Badger State is not something it should or could fix by ‘judicial fiat’.
Unrelated:
– In the “congested” general election for the mayoralty of NYC (a local post that draws an absurd quantity of media coverage, perhaps even from outside the USA) there evidently will be *three* current or former Democrats vying for the office. Ironically, the lone (current) Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, also the 2021 nominee, is thought to have a nearly zero chance of winning; go figure.
– Historically, the states of IA, WI, MN, and SD have swung strongly against D presidential administrations. Depending on economic conditions or foreign wars (or even scandals, though the very existence of the current one, headed by a 34-count convicted felon, is arguably a scandal in and of itself), the aforementioned venues may yet push back strongly against the current MAGA/R one next year, with Senator “Hearse” Ernst of IA along with three of four House districts, the 8th, 7th, and 1st House districts of MN (the 6th seems unlikely, having elected only R nominees in its current configuration), and the relatively marginal CD-01and CD-03 in WI as bellwethers.