Only one out of 11 Texas U.S. Senate primary elections with three candidates on the ballot have failed to yield a nominee

Texas Democratic Party logoWith three well-known candidates in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary – incumbent John Cornyn, State Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt – it is widely expected that no GOP nominee will receive a majority of the vote in the eight-candidate field to avoid a May 26th runoff election between the top two primary finishers.

Only three candidates are on the Democratic side of the ballot – U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, State Representative James Talarico, and perennial candidate Ahmad Hassan – but there is little confidence among prognosticators whether Crockett or Talarico will turn out on top.

If the race is particularly close between the two frontrunners, then the larger the Hassan vote share the more likely it is that Democrats will also not have a nominee and head to the runoff election in late May.

Since Texas U.S. Senate primaries began in the early 20th Century, voters have had the choice of three candidates in 12 of them, 11 of which required a runoff if the leading candidate did not win a majority of the vote.

A runoff was necessary in just one of these three-candidate contests: the 2006 Democratic primary. That contest resulted in Houston lawyer Barbara Ann Radnofsky receiving 43.1 percent, retired Universal City attorney and perennial candidate Gene Kelly with 38.2 percent, and Darrel Hunter of Amarillo in third with 18.7 percent.

Radnofsky won the runoff with 60.2 percent.

Each of the remaining three-candidate U.S. Senate primaries saw one candidate emerge with the outright nomination:

  • 1924 (Democratic): U.S. Senator Morris Shephard (64.8 percent) defeated Austin farmer and former State Agriculture Commissioner Fred Davis (23.5 percent) and Houston real estate agent John Maddox (11.8 percent)
  • 1930 (Democratic): U.S. Senator Morris Shephard (71.1 percent) beat Houston lawyer Robert Henry (23.5 percent) and Irion County Attorney Clarence A. Mitchner of Sherwood (5.4 percent)
  • 1934 (Democratic): U.S. Senator Tom Connally (58.8 percent) defeated freshman at-large U.S. Representative Joseph Bailey of Dallas (36.9 percent) and Bland Lake sawmill operator and attorney Guy Fisher (4.3 percent)
  • 1940 (Democratic): U.S. Senator Tom Connally (84.8 percent) defeated Guy Fisher (9.0 percent) and Audie P. Belcher of Stephenville (6.2 percent)
  • 1952 (Democratic): State Attorney General and former State Representative Price Daniel (72.5 percent) beat seven-term U.S. Representative Lindley Beckworth (22.0 percent) and Wichita Falls attorney E.W. Napier (5.4 percent)
  • 1976 (Republican): Two-term U.S. Representative Alan Steelman (70.5 percent) defeated former touring tennis player Hugh Sweeney of Houston (18.1 percent) and Crosby oilman Louis Leman (11.4 percent)
  • 1982 (Republican): Eight-term U.S. Representative James Collins (58.0 percent) beat State Senator Walter Mengden (34.9 percent) and Houston computer company president Don Richardson (7.1 percent)
  • 1996 (Republican): U.S. Senator Phil Gramm (85.0 percent) easily dispatched with Austin insurance consultant David Young (7.7 percent) and former Houston State Senator Henry Grover (7.3) percent)
  • 2018 (Democratic): Three-term U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke defeated Pasadena insurance agent Sema Hernandez (23.7 percent) and retired Houston postal worker Edward Kimbrough (14.5 percent)
  • 2024 (Republican): U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (88.3 percent) cruised to a large victory over Houston retiree Holland Gibson (6.0 percent) and San Antonio attorney Rufus Lopez (5.7 percent)

Note: There was a 12th Texas U.S. Senate primary with three candidates on the ballot – the GOP primary of 1930 – but no runoff election was required at that point in time for the party.

The 1930 cycle was the first time Texas Republican voters had the chance to pick their nominee for U.S. Senator – a three-way contest between realty broker Doran Haesly of Dallas, Port Arthur Chamber of Commerce general manager Colonel Harve Haines, and attorney C.O. Harris of San Angelo. Haesly won the primary with a plurality 39.4 percent with Harris 7.3 points back at 32.1 percent and Haines at 28.5 percent. A total of only 8,992 votes were cast for the Republican candidates statewide in that nominating contest.

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2 Comments

  1. Geoff Gamble on March 2, 2026 at 5:26 pm

    – Republican primary election of 1930: “…no runoff election was required at that point in time for the party.” Whenever the runner-up declines to participate/contest in that second election the first-place candidate wins *by default*, as Harris, the second-place aspirant, purportedly boycotted it (I am aware of no State that would have required or require a primary runoff for one party but not any other).

    – It is a given that the national Republican party will financially support the nominee – Cornyn or not – since the party has nearly zero hope of retaining its modest majority without the TX seat. The more intriguing question is, will the Democratic counterpart write off the state/seat were Ms. Crockett to become the nominee, even with a presumed 10-week head start?

    Reply
    • Dr Eric J Ostermeier on March 2, 2026 at 7:51 pm

      It was actually the Republican State Committee that decided there would be no runoff primary in 1930.

      Reply

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