Midwestern States Most Likely to Vote Against President’s Party in US Senate Elections
Midwestern states hold the Bottom Five and eight of the Bottom 10 slots in backing the party of the sitting president in U.S. Senate elections
Democrats are banking on a strong midterm election cycle with a stretch goal of taking back control of the United States Senate.
One key to that goal is to perform strongly in a region where voters have most commonly thumbed their noses and voted for a check on the president when voting in U.S. Senate races over the decades – the Midwest.
Smart Politics reviewed more than 2,000 U.S. Senate elections since 1913 and found that each of the five states that has been least likely to vote for a U.S. Senator from the party of the sitting president are all in the Midwest – Ohio (31.0 percent), Michigan (32.5 percent), Minnesota (33.3 percent), North Dakota (33.3 percent), and Illinois (34.1 percent).
Four of those five states – all but North Dakota – hold elections for the nation’s upper legislative chamber this November with Democrats eying a pick-up opportunity in Ohio where former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is poised to face appointed incumbent Jon Husted.
Three other Midwestern states rank in the Bottom 10: Kansas and Wisconsin tied at #43 (39.0 percent) and South Dakota tied for #40 (42.1 percent).
Since 1913, states have backed the nominee of the party of the sitting president in 47.4 percent of U.S. Senate elections (959 of 2,023).
States in the South (50.3 percent), West (49.8 percent), and Northeast (49.4 percent) all demonstrate very similar historical numbers.
Midwestern voters, however, have voted for the president’s party in just 39.8 percent of U.S. Senate elections during this 110+ year span.
As for the remaining four Midwestern states, Missouri is ranked #15 (52.4 percent), Nebraska #19 (50.0 percent), Indiana #27 (47.6 percent), and Iowa #39 (42.1 percent).
Democrats are expecting to be competitive in Iowa’s 2026 election and are essentially ceding the fight to take on Republican Pete Ricketts in Nebraska to independent Dan Osborne.
The party is also hoping to flip another strong historical naysayer seat in Maine – where residents have voted for the president’s party in just 35.9 percent of elections (#45).
No state has voted for candidates from the president’s party in 60 percent or more of elections though Connecticut and New Mexico (59.5 percent each) come close.
Rhode Island (59.0 percent), Virginia (58.5 percent), and Wyoming (57.1 percent) round out the Top Five.
New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Virginia look to see those numbers fall this November by reelecting Democratic incumbents Ben Ray Luján, Jack Reed, and Mark Warner respectively.
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If I am not in error, the “naysayer” rate in Senate elections in the Midwest has been even higher with D presidents than R presidents.
VT arguably gets a bit tricky; Senator Bernard Sanders has won in 2012 and 2024, both years with *his* party holding the presidency. The same also may be said of Angus King (same years, though he actually has had to outrun official Democratic candidates both times) and James Buckley of NY in 1970, who, as far as the Nixon White House was concerned, was the Republican candidate, even though he did not formally register with the party until 1975(?), near the end of his single term.
If the Republicans manage to win in MI, well, neither Alito nor Thomas need step down from the Court by the end of the year (there has been recent speculation indeed). But, with pocketbook matters on top of pragmatic Midwest voters, what may slightly more likely to happen is a D upset win in KS – and perhaps even SD – to say nothing of IA and OH.
It would be quite ironic and indeed unusual if the Mitten State were to switch to the Republicans in a midterm cycle while in power (the most recent occasion the party out of power lost to that in power occurred in 1978).
On the other hand, it would be par for the course if the adjoining Buckeye State were to switch to the Democrats, for the most recent occasion the state voted for the party in power in a midterm cycle occurred in 1970, with “Bob” Taft Jr. As well, no appointed senator from the state has ever gone on to win a subsequent retention bid (e.g. Howard Metzenbaum in 1974 primary; R C McCulloch in 1930 special).