Ken Paxton and a Review of Texas US Senate Primary Runoffs
Paxton received the largest support in a Texas U.S. Senate runoff for a second place primary finisher
Four-term incumbent John Cornyn became the first GOP Texas U.S. Senator to lose at the ballot box in state history with Attorney General Ken Paxton defeating him in Tuesday’s Republican primary runoff.
Prior to Cornyn’s loss, Texas Republican U.S. Senators had won all 26 primary and general elections: John Tower (all six), Phil Gramm (all four), Kay Bailey Hutchison (all six), Ted Cruz (all four), and Cornyn (six previous contests).
The 63.8 percent won by Paxton on Tuesday is the largest support received in a runoff by a second-place Texas U.S. Senate primary finisher and the second largest overall.
From the first primary in the state in 1906 through this cycle, there have been 18 U.S. Senate primary runoff elections for the office – 14 for the Democrats and four for the GOP.
In 10 of these elections, the second place finisher in the primary – like Paxton – ended up winning their party’s nomination.
The previous high water mark for these other nine come-from-behind nominees was held by two-term Democratic incumbent Charles Culberson in 1916 with 63.4 percent. Culberson won only 21.9 percent in the seven-candidate primary field – 8.1 points behind former Governor O.B. Colquitt but defeated Colquitt by 26.6 points in the runoff.
The remaining eight second place finishers to win the U.S. Senate runoff in Texas are:
- Six-term Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Connally (1928, 55.4 percent): Connally trailed first term U.S. Senator Earle Mayfield by 3.3 points with 26.4 percent in the primary
- Six-term Democratic U.S. Representative Lyndon Johnson (1948, 50.004 percent): Johnson (controversially) overcame a 6.0-point deficit with 33.7 percent in the 11-candidate primary to best former Governor Coke Stevenson
- Former Democratic State Representative Barefoot Sanders (1972, 52.0 percent): Sanders trailed former U.S. Senator Ralph Yarborough by 11.9 points with 38.1 percent in the five-candidate primary. Yarborough was 536 votes short of avoiding a runoff.
- Democratic State Senator Lloyd Doggett (1984, 50.02 percent): Doggett trailed three-term U.S. Representative Kent Hance by 0.02 points with 31.17 percent of the vote in the six-candidate primary – just .09 points ahead of third-place finisher, two-term U.S. Representative Bob Krueger
- Two-term Republican U.S. Representative Beau Boulter (1988, 60.2 percent): Boulter overcame a 6.2-point deficit with 30.5 percent behind Houston oil and real estate businessman Wes Gilbreath in the four-candidate primary
- Democratic Dallas financier Richard Fisher (1994, 53.6 percent): Fisher came back to defeat former two-term U.S. Representative and state Attorney General Jim Mattox after trailing by 2.7 points in the four-candidate primary
- Democratic Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (2002, 59.8 percent): Kirk was only 0.1 points in arrears of Crandall teacher Victor Morales with 33.1 percent in the five-candidate primary
- Former Republican state Solicitor General Ted Cruz (2012, 56.8 percent): Cruz came back to beat Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst after trailing by 10.5 points with 34.2 percent in the nine-candidate primary field
The remaining eight runoff winners who had placed first with a plurality in their party’s U.S. Senate primaries are: Democratic Railroad Commissioner Earle Mayfield (1922), Democratic U.S. Senator Pappy O’Daniel (1942), Republican Houston oil executive George H.W Bush (1964), Democratic Crandall City Councilor Victor Morales (1996), retired Democratic attorney Gene Kelley of Universal City (2000), Democratic Houston attorney Barbara Ann Radnofsky (2006), former Democratic State Representative Paul Sadler (2012), and Democratic Dallas dentist David Alameel (2014).
Alameel holds the state record by winning 72.2 percent in his runoff election against Lyndon LaRouche-ite Kesha Rogers in 2014.
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– John Cornyn III was first (technically) appointed in early 12 of 2002, for the unexpired third term of “Phil” Gramm, who had resigned on 30 of 11 2002 under the mistaken belief that his successor would have a seniority advantage over the other senators-elect (the Rules Committee had adopted that prohibition in 1980).
– “…Tower (all six)…” John Goodwin Tower did lose one election – the 1960 contest (his very first; he became the Republican nominee in the party convention, one that was apparently uncontested) against “Landslide Lyndon” (“…vote against Johnson, two times, not one”), who had hedged his bets that year, with his seat & position as leader of the Democratic Caucus as the fallback option if he had failed to be elected president.
Tower’s 1961 nomination for the special election after LBJ resigned from the office would be the last time a Texas Republican would be nominated by convention for U.S. Senator. The party sporadically held primaries (1930, 1934, 1954) as required by state law if its gubernatorial nominee hit a minimum threshold of votes during the previous cycle (100K in the early 1930s, 200K in 1954).
Good point about Cornyn’s extra month of service in what was technically his first term, which seems to be ignored in the press entirely as he is almost always referred to (e.g. at the top in this piece) as a four-term senator.
Contrary to so-called conventional wisdom a Cornyn renomination would not have guaranteed an automatic hold for the Republicans, given the acrimonious character of their intraparty competition and the calibre of the Democratic nominee. By contrast, had “Bill” Cassidy survived the primary election he would have been assured of another term, despite the fact that the Pelican State had most recently elected a Democrat to the office of governor in 2019, whereas in adjoining Lone Star State the Democrats had most recently won the post of treasurer (abolished within 2 years) and several other statewide offices in 1994.
Are any other Republican US senators standing for election this year who are on the brink of defeat within the party? (Two have already lost, the first time more than one elected incumbent has lost a primary election since 1980)
Should Senator “Dan” S Sullivan decide not to continue with his re-election bid after finishing third or fourth in the initial all-party primary election (a highly unlikely scenario, to be sure) would the press as a whole then consider Sullivan a *retired* senator, or a *defeated* senator, in the similar vein as fellow classmate (of 2014) “Bill” Cassidy?
If recent trend is anything to go by, a departure by Sullivan (yes, there is also a “Dan” J Sullivan in the primary election, as well as a onetime mayor of Anchorage named “Dan” Sullivan) after this cycle would almost certainly result in a change of partisan control. In 2020, two members of the Class of 2014 – Perdue of GA (actually he was a former senator, per the scheduling of the runoff election in that state) and Gardner of CO – failed to win a second term, though the losses of other incumbents also contributed to the change. In 2014, three members of the Class of 2008 – Hagan of NC, Udall of CO, and Begich of AK – failed to win a second term, though again the losses of other Democratic-held seats also played a role in the partisan switch. This cycle, a sizable number of the Republican-dominated ‘class of ’14’ seats will have new members next year, and some are at modest to serious risk of falling into Democratic hands, notably those of NC, IA, and AK.