Posts by Dr. Eric Ostermeier
The Nine Lives of Don Bacon
Nebraska’s 2nd CD U.S. Representative has eked out each of his four general election wins by less than five points – most in state history.
Read MoreIlhan Omar Records Another Historically Close Primary Win
Only six of the 162 renomination bids by DFL U.S. Representatives have been decided by less than 30 points – Omar now owns three of them.
Read MoreJon Tester Hopes to Tap Montana’s Rich History of Split-Ticket Voting
No other state has backed presidential and U.S. Senate nominees from different parties in a majority of election cycles over the last 100+ years.
Read MoreMinnesotans Poised to Vote in Record-Setting US Senate Primary
The general election may be a snoozer, but more Republican and Democratic U.S. Senate candidates will appear on the primary ballot than in any cycle in state history.
Read MoreRally ‘Round the Candidate
Ruben Gallego won Arizona’s Democratic U.S. Senate nomination unopposed on Tuesday night, which has become par for the course for the party in recent decades. Democratic nominees for the office in Arizona have been crowned without opposition on the ballot in five of the last six cycles: Richard Carmona (2012), Ann Kirkpatrick (2016), Mark Kelly…
Read MoreBy How Much Will Amy Klobuchar Outrun the Top of the DFL Ticket?
Klobuchar is Minnesota’s only U.S. Senator to outperform her party’s top of the ticket nominee by 20+ points in both presidential and midterm elections.
Read MoreWill 2024 See A Drop in the Presidential Popular Vote Count?
The country has seen cycle-to-cycle decreases in the number of votes cast in presidential elections a half-dozen times including four outside of major wars.
Read MoreWill Be There Be Any Surprise Competitive States in 2024’s Presidential Election?
Close national elections do not always produce many state contest nail-biters.
Read MoreHow Many States Will Flip in 2024’s Presidential Election?
Each major party flipped states in just two of the last 14 cycles since 1968.
Read MoreWho Are the Democrats Calling for Biden to Step Aside?
One CNN commentator’s math on debate night does not add up.
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