A new poll released Sunday by American Research Group (ARG) continues to show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by double digits, some six weeks before Pennsylvania’s crucial Democratic primary. Clinton’s lead, 52 to 41 percent, is less noteworthy than the extent of the gender gap reflected by this poll of 600 likely primary voters conducted March 7-8.
Obama leads Clinton by an impressive 21 points among men, 59 to 38 percent. Clinton, however, leads the Illinois Senator by a whopping 36 points among women, 63 to 29 percent. Even if the gender gaps were equal, Clinton would still hold the advantage, as women comprise approximately 55 percent of Democratic primary voters in the Keystone State.
This massive gender gap has not been reflected in all Pennsylvania surveys, however. In a Rasmussen survey of 690 likley primary voters conducted on March 5th, where Clinton’s lead was measured at 52 to 37 percent, the New York Senator led Obama by just 17 points among women (19 points less than in the ARG poll) and also led Obama among male voters by 11 points (a 32 point difference from the ARG poll).
Even accounting for the margin of error with each survey, it is difficult to reconcile the vast differences with these internal gender demographics. All the more reason to interpret single polls with caution—especially six weeks out from primary day.