Despite a lot of noise in the media during the last few weeks about Barack Obama’s surging campaign in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton appears on top in all five polls released during the past 24 hours—including by double digits in two of them. Clinton has not trailed Obama in any of the 58 surveys conducted in Pennsylvania by nonpartisan organizations dating back 15 months.
Smart Politics has consistently stated during the weeks since the Texas and Ohio primaries that Clinton would win Pennsylvania and warned its readership not to buy into the media’s tendency to make the race look closer than it really is in the Keystone State. That prediction is based as much on an analysis of the political culture and demographics of the state, as a cursory glance at public opinion surveys (all of which point to a Clinton victory).
In the latest batch of polls, Clinton is seen increasing her lead in the daily Zogby tracking poll (now up six points) and scoring double-digit advantages in surveys conducted by Suffolk and American Research Group:
American Research Group (April 17-19, 600 LV): Clinton 54, Obama 41
Suffolk (April 19-20, 600 LV): Clinton 52, Obama 42
Quinnipiac (April 18-20, 1,027 LV): Clinton 51, Obama 44
Zogby (April 19-20, 602 LV): Clinton 48, Obama 42
Mason-Dixon (April 17-18, 625 LV): Clinton 48, Obama 43
Smart Politics will blog live during the results of the primary on Tuesday evening, discussing the political impact of the returns as well as analyzing the media coverage of the important event.