Dean Barkley Hits 19 Percent in New Minnesota Senate Poll
Dean Barkey’s numbers continue to rise in the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, according to a new SurveyUSA poll of 725 likely voters in the Gopher State (conducted September 30 – October 1).
In the new survey, Republican Norm Coleman leads DFL-er Al Franken by a 43 to 33 percent margin, with Barkley in third at 19 percent. Back in June, in the three-way matchup poll by SurveyUSA, Barkley polled at 8 percent and three weeks ago came in at 14 percent.
No candidate has eclipsed the 50 percent mark in this three-way race – nor is likely to do so on Election Day in this competitive contest.
Like the poll in mid-September, Barkley continues to win the support of 10 percent of Republican voters. But what has changed from three weeks ago, however, is that Barkley has now almost doubled the percentage of Democrats he has pried away from Franken: Barkley’s numbers have increased from 11 percent to 19 percent among Democrats, while Franken now holds just 65 percent of voters from his own party, down from 76 percent three weeks ago. This is particularly frustrating to the Franken campaign as more Gopher State voters identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans in the current political environment (37 percent to 30 percent in the SurveyUSA poll).
Barkley is also doing particularly well with voters over 65 (27 percent) and those making less than $50,000 per year (24 percent).
Barkley will be speaking at the first 2008 Candidate Forum at the Humphrey Institute next Wednesday, October 8th. Barkley’s talk is entitled, “The Polarization of Our Political Parties.�?
2008 Candidate Forums: U.S. Senate
Cowles Auditorium, Humphrey Institute
Dean Barkley – The Polarization of our Political Parties
Independence Party Candidate, U.S. Senate
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Noon – 1:15pm
The Center for the Study of Politics and Governance is hosting a series of public forums with the major party candidates for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat to foster informed and substantive discussion of important matters of public policy. The forums create an opportunity for the candidates to rise above the talking points and fractious back-and-forth of the campaign to address the important policy challenges facing Minnesota and the country. It also creates a forum for students and citizens to listen and raise questions with the candidates. The events are free and open to the public.
Update: Here is the link to the poll’s crosstabs.
Look at the crosstabs. Do you believe that Sen. Coleman has an advantage over Franken among young voters? Do you think that Sen. McCain has an advantage over Sen. Obama in this state? This poll is bogus, and reposting it without critical commentary is irresponsible. Of course, you don’t provide a link, so your readers can’t decide for themselves, either.
Well if the 18-34 (and I got news for the kids, us 27-34 year olds will not be voting Franken) component of the poll is wrong, then thats even better news for Senator Barkley as he only polls in at 13% there.
The overall margain of error for a poll of 725, is 3.5%, the margain of error in any individual splinter of 150 or so voters is closer to 15%, but that does not change the fact that with a 95% confidence level Survey USA would find Al Franken to be polling somewhere between 29 and 37% if they polled the entire state as it fit into there methonology. Dean Barkley is somewhere between 15 and 23% and Norm Coleman is somewhere between 39 and 47%
If you think the methonology is off have at it. But suprising results within crosstabs are due to smaller #’s more often then not. And just to make this point really clear because it’s annoying the margain of error works both ways, to assume it’s favorable to your candidate is a fools game, look at undecideds instead because your looking at about the same #, and it’s actually more realilistic to assume your candidate can gain there then it is because of the margain of error.
The point is that the poll’s results, both the topline (for the presidential race) and some of the crosstabs, don’t comport with the clear sense one gets on the ground. If the election were held today, I can promise you that Sen. Obama would win by much more than one point (and other polls show this), and this poll would be significantly off the mark in the Senate race, almost certainly in Franken’s favor.
Yeah, as the previous commenters have pointed out, this poll is kinda bunk. I posted a bit about it on MNpublius too.
Thanks for your coverage of all the races. I’d like you and your readers to know about a voter education initiative I’m involved in, Your Candidates-Your Health, which asks presidential and congressional candidates for their views on health care, medical research and other related issues.
Both McCain and Obama have responded to our survey at http://www.yourcandidatesyourhealth.org, and we have invited congressional candidates from your state. So far, only four of the 25 candidates running, or 16%, have responded. In the Senate race, only Mr. Aldrich has responded.