Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The thirteenth projections in the series are State House races in the State of Minnesota.

Minnesota: State House.
Balance of power: DFL (85 to 49)
2006 Results: DFL +19
Seats up for reelection in 2008: 134
Open seats: Republicans = 11; DFL = 6
Incumbents on the ballot: Republicans = 38; DFL = 79

Outlook: The DFL and GOP each had one incumbent defeated in September’s primary elections. Republicans will have no incumbent running in 22 percent of their House districts (11 of 49), compared to just 7 percent for the DFL (6 of 85). However, the DFL will have to defend 27 districts decided by 10 points or less, compared to 17 for the Republicans – which gives the GOP more low-hanging fruit. The DFL will seek pickups in districts such as 16A, 17A, 18B, 22B, 24B, 32B, 38B, 41B, 43A, 52B, and 53B. The Republicans will have a number of opportunities to be competitive, including Districts 12B, 17B, 25B, 29B, 30B, 31B, 37A, 38A, 47A, 51A, 53A, 56A, and 56B.

Smart Politics Projection: DFL +3. DFL retains control of House.