Tired of War: Minnesotans Not Shy About Changing Presidential Party During Wartime

Now that Barack Obama has been inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States, the question on the minds of many Minnesotans is: “How long do we wait for ‘change?'” Obama’s campaign for ‘change’ during the presidential primaries and general election took many forms, from the vague and intangible (‘changing how politics is done’) to policies that were somewhat more tangible – such as bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq as soon as possible.

Obama’s stance on Iraq – especially his stated opposition to the war prior to the invasion in 2003 – played a very strong role in his defeat of Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, and a lesser role in defeating John McCain.

Although Minnesota has endured the 9th fewest deaths per capita during the Iraqi conflict (11.49 deaths per million residents), the majority of its residents are supportive of a timely withdrawing of U.S. troops. A mid-June 2008 Rasmussen poll, conducted nine months after U.S. troop deaths in Iraq had subsided to approximately 1/3 their peak level in 2007, still found that 57 percent of Minnesotans wanted the next president’s most important goal to be to get the troops home as opposed to just 35 percent who wanted the next president to win the war.

A September 2008 Quinnipiac poll found a similar margin – 59 percent to 36 percent – who thought going to war with Iraq was the wrong thing to do as opposed to the right thing.

Minnesota’s neighbors to the west, however, have borne a much larger brunt of deaths on the Iraqi battlefield – South Dakota (23.63 deaths per million residents) and North Dakota (21.82) rank as the 5th and 7th highest states respectively.

U.S. Armed Services Deaths in Iraq by State

Sources: data compiled from iCasualties.org and U.S. Census.

It has also been said – usually by supporters of the party in power – that it is risky to have a change of leadership during periods of war. The Gopher State, however, has voted to oust the political party in the White House in four of eight presidential elections held during wartime in the past century.

In addition to voting for Democrats Barack Obama in 2008 and John Kerry in 2004 while Republicans held the White House during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Gopher State also voted Republican in 1952 while a Democrat was at the healm during the Korean War (with Harry Truman). Minnesota also narrowly rejected the leadership of Democrat Woodrow Wilson in the middle of World War I – with Republican Charles E. Hughes carrying the state by 0.1 percentage points.

On the flip side, Minnesota voted to maintain the political party controlling the White House during all three presidential elections held during the Vietnam War: voting Democratic in 1964 and 1968 and voting for Richard Nixon in 1972. In the midst of World War II the state also voted to keep Democrat Franklin Roosevelt in office in 1944 – just as they did 80 years prior for Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1864 during the Civil War.

Minnesota Presidential Political Party Vote Choice During Wartime