A Profile of Minnesota’s Swing and Stronghold State Senate Districts

During the past three days Smart Politics has issued reports analyzing party strength in the state’s 134 House districts – including analyses on the state’s 40 swing districts, the 94 DFL and GOP stronghold districts, and the barriers the Republican Party faces as it begins to rebuild and attempt to close the DFL’s 40-seat advantage in the lower chamber.

Today, in Smart Politics’ fourth report, attention is turned to the Minnesota Senate – the battle for control of which has been notoriously noncompetitive ever since partisan legislative elections were established in the Gopher State in 1974.

The DFL has maintained continuous control of the upper chamber in St. Paul throughout these 35 years, winning nearly two-thirds (63.5 percent) of the 706 general and special election contests conducted during this span (448 seats). Republicans have won just 36.1 percent of these contests (255 seats), with third parties winning the remaining 3 seats (0.4 percent).

Since new district maps were implemented in 2002, the DFL has won 86 of 143 general and special election races (60.1 percent), with Republicans winning 56 contests, and 1 seat going to an Independence Party candidate.

Prospects for substantial GOP Senate gains in 2010 are bleak, given the historical dominance of the DFL in Senate races for the past few generations as well as the decided momentum the DFL enjoyed coming out of the 2006 election.

For example, the DFL improved its standing in an astounding 55 of the state’s 67 Senate districts from the 2002 to 2006 general election cycles – either increasing its margin of victory or decreasing its margin of loss in 82 percent of the state’s senate districts. The DFL improved its standing by double-digit margins in 35 of these districts.

Meanwhile, Republicans gained ground in 2006 in just 12 districts, notching two notable pickups (District 11 in Alexandria and District 13 in Willmar), but only cutting into the DFL margin of victory from 2002 in just five other districts: District 08 in Cloquet (Tony Lourey, an 8.8-point gain), District 22 in Worthington (Jim Vickerman, 8.1 points), District 47 in Coon Rapids (Leo Foley, 4.6 points), District 06 in Duluth (Thomas Bakk, 1.9 points), and District 65 in St. Paul (Sandra Pappas, 37.2 points). (Note: Pappas ran unchallenged in 2002).

Still, 2010 presents new opportunities for the GOP, with the changing national political environment and the very real possibility that DFL Senators have reached their peak in support among the electorate statewide.

For example, in 2006, DFL candidates for Senate won 55.3 percent of the vote statewide – their best mark since 1992 (55.6 percent), and a 5.6-point improvement from 2002 (49.7 percent). GOP Senate candidates earned only 43.3 percent of the vote statewide in 2006, their worst showing since 1992 (43.2 percent), and down 2.8 points from 2002 (46.1 percent).

To be sure, there will be opportunities for pickups on both sides of the aisle in 2010. Fourteen Senate seats have been held by by both the Republicans and the DFL since 2002, although the DFL currently controls 12 of them. (A fifteenth seat, District 30 in Rochester, has been held by the Independence and DFL parties).

These 15 seats have combined for a total of 23 competitive races in general and special election matchups since 2002 – elections decided by less than 10 points. If DFLer Tarryl Clark should receive her party’s nomination for the 6th U.S Congressional District race, Republicans will certainly target her 15th District seat in St. Cloud. (The GOP won District 15 by 1.7 points in 2002).

Republicans will also eye the seats held by Dan Skogen in District 10 (Fergus Falls), John Doll in District 40 (Bloomington), and (potential 3rd CD candidate) Terri Bonoff in District 43 (Plymouth) – all districts the GOP won by double-digit margins back in 2002.

Minnesota Senate Districts That Have Changed Party Control, 2002-2008

District	Area	State Senator	Party	Comp. Races
04	Bemidji	Mary Olson	DFL	2
10	Fergus Falls	Dan Skogen	DFL	0
11	Alexandria	Bill Ingebrigsten	GOP	2
13	Willmar	Joe Gimse	GOP	2
15	St. Cloud	Tarryl Clark	DFL	1
16	Big Lake	Lisa Fobbe	DFL	1
17	North Branch	Rick Olseen	DFL	2
25	Northfield	Kevin Dahle	DFL	2
30*	Rochester	Ann Lynch	DFL	1
31	Winona	Sharon E. Ropes	DFL	1
38	Eagan	Jim Carlson	DFL	2
40	Bloomington	John Doll	DFL	1
43	Plymouth	Terri Bonoff	DFL	2
56	Woodbury	Kathy Saltzman	DFL	2
53	White Bear Lake	Sandy Rummel	DFL	2

* Won by the Independence Party in 2002. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

In addition to these 15 ‘swing districts,’ another 14 Senate districts that have not changed party control have hosted at least one competitive contest since 2002. Eight of these districts are currently held by Republicans, and seven by the DFL.

Five of these districts have yielded competitive races in both the 2002 and 2006 general elections and are definitely districts to watch in 2010: District 28 in Red Wing (represented by DFLer Steve Murphy), District 47 in Coon Rapids (DFLer Leo Foley), District 48 in Ramsey (GOPer Mike Jungbauer), District 51 in Blaine (DFLer Don Betzold), and District 52 in Forest Lake (GOPer Ray Vandeveer).

Competitive Minnesota Senate Districts That Have Not Changed Party Control, 2002-2008

District	Area	State Senator	Party	Comp. Races
12	Brainerd	Paul Koering	GOP	1
23	Mankato	Kahty Sheran	DFL	1
24	Fairmont	Julie Rosen	GOP	1
26	Owatonna	Dick Day	GOP	1
27	Austin	Dan Sparks	DFL	1
28	Red Wing	Steve Murphy	DFL	2
37	Apple Valley	Chris Gerlach	GOP	1
42	Eden Prairie	David Hann	GOP	1
47	Coon Rapids	Leo Foley	DFL	2
48	Ramsey	Mike Jungbauer	GOP	2
49	Coon Rapids	Debbie Johnson	GOP	1
51	Blaine	Don Betzold	DFL	2
52	Forest Lake	Ray Vandeveer	GOP	2
57	Cottage Grove	Katie Sieben	DFL	1

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

There are, of course, many districts in which one party or the other has dominated recent electoral contests. The DFL has gone undefeated in 33 Senate districts since redistricting, with 8 of the top 10 of these ‘stronghold districts’ located in Minneapolis or St. Paul. Six-term Senator Sandra Pappas of St. Paul (District 65) enjoys the largest average margin of victory at 77.6 points since 2002. (The GOP failed to field a candidate against Pappas in 2002).

The two non-metro districts cracking the Top 10 DFL stronghold list are District 01 in Thief River Falls at #4 (represented by Leroy Stumpf, 62.1 points) and District 05 in Hibbing at #6 (David Tomassoni, 54.9 points).

Undefeated DFL Minnesota Senate Districts by Average Margin of Victory, 2002-2008

Rank	District	Area	State Senator	MoV
1	65*	St. Paul	Sandra Pappas	77.6
2	61	Minneapolis	Linda Berglin	68.4
3	60	Minneapolis	Scott Dibble	62.4
4	01**	Thief River Falls	Leroy Stumpf	62.1
5	59	Minneapolis	Larry Pogemiller	55.1
6	05	Hibbing	David Tomassoni	54.9
7	62	Minneapolis	Patricia Torres Ray	52.8
8	58	Minneapolis	Linda Higgins	52.5
9	66	St. Paul	Ellen Anderson	50.8
10	64	St. Paul	Richard Cohen	48.5
11	06	Duluth	Thomas Bakk	43.9
12	07	Duluth	Yvonne P. Solon	38.7
13	09	Moorhead	Keith Langseth	33.9
14	20	Montevideo	Gary Kubly	30.8
15	44	St. Louis Park	Ron Latz	30.2
16	63	Richfield	Ken Kelash	29.0
17	55	Maplewood	Charles Wiger	27.5
18	46	Brooklyn Park	Linda Scheid	27.0
19	67	St. Paul	Mee Moua	26.8
20	03	Grand Rapids	Tom Saxhaug	25.2
21	45	Crystal	Ann Rest	24.0
22	39	Inver Grove Heights	James Metzen	22.2
23	22	Worthington	Jim Vickerman	20.1
24	08	Cloquet	Tony Lourey	19.6
25	57	Cottage Grove	Katie Sieben	19.2
26	54	Roseville	John Marty	19.0
27	50	New Brighton	Satveer Chaudhary	18.8
27	02	Park Rapids	Rod Skoe	18.8
29	27	Austin	Dan Sparks	17.8
30	23	Mankato	Kahty Sheran	9.0
31	51	Blaine	Don Betzold	7.5
32	28	Red Wing	Steve Murphy	6.9
33	47	Coon Rapids	Leo Foley	3.7

* No opposition in 2002. ** No opposition in 2006. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Republicans, meanwhile, are undefeated in 19 districts since 2002, with 4-term Senator Claire Robling of District 35 (Shakopee) claiming the largest average margin of victory at 66.0 points. (The DFL did not field a candidate against Robling in 2006).

Rounding out the Top 5 most dominant GOP Senate districts since 2002 are District 21 in New Ulm (Dennis Frederckson, 62.5 points), District 18 in Hutchinson (Steve Dille, 32.0 points), District 33 in Plymouth (Gen Olson, 26.5 points), and District 29 in Rochester (Senate Minority Leader Dave Senjem, 25.1 points).

Undefeated Republican Minnesota Senate Districts by Average Margin of Victory, 2002-2008

Rank	District	Area	State Senator	MoV
1	35**	Shakopee	Claire Robling	66.0
2	21*	New Ulm	Dennis Frederickson	62.5
3	18	Hutchinson	Steve Dille	32.0
4	33	Plymouth	Gen Olson	26.5
5	29	Rochester	Dave Senjem	25.1
6	41	Edina	Geoff Michel	24.7
7	34	Chanhassen	Julianne Ortman	24.3
8	32	Maple Grove	Warren Limmer	23.0
9	36	Lakeville	Pat Pariseau	22.9
10	19	Buffalo	Amy Koch	22.3
11	37	Apple Valley	Chris Gerlach	18.4
12	26	Owatonna	Dick Day	16.4
13	14	Sauk Rapids	Michelle Fischbach	15.0
14	49	Coon Rapids	Debbie Johnson	14.0
15	24	Fairmont	Julie Rosen	13.9
16	42	Eden Prairie	David Hann	11.4
17	52	Forest Lake	Ray Vandeveer	6.7
18	12	Brainerd	Paul Koering	6.2
19	48	Ramsey	Mike Jungbauer	5.7

* No opposition in 2002. ** No opposition in 2006. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Two DFL and two Republican Senators are currently seeking the governor’s mansion in 2010. DFLer Tom Bakk represents the 11th most dominant DFL district (District 06, in Duluth) while colleague John Marty represents the district with the 26th highest average margin of victory for the DFL in senate contests (District 54 in Roseville).

On the Republican side, David Hann represents the 16th strongest GOP district (District 42, in Eden Prairie), while Mike Jungbauer represents the very competitive 48th District in Ramsey (ranked #19 with only a 5.7-point average GOP margin of victory since 2002).

Additional opportunities for competitive districts may arise, of course, in the event of retirements or incumbents failing to win their party’s nomination or primary.

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